Daga Hannan Hussain
Tun bayan fara yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine, India ta yi ta ƙoƙarin kyautata alaƙar tattalin arziki da ayyukan soji da Moscow ba tare da shiga hatsarin nuna adawa ga Kiev da Yammacin Duniya ba.
Firaministan India Narendra Modi ya yi tafiya ta farko zuwa Rasha tun bayan fara yaƙi a watan Yulin bara, kuma a makon nan zai ziyarci Ukraine - tafiya irinta ta farko da wani Firaministan India zai kai a shekaru aru-aru.
Amma, India za ta iya cim ma burinta na tauna taura biyu? Kuma waɗanne ƙalubale take fuskanta?
Ganin cewa Modi zai kai ziyara a Ukraine ne a mawuyacin yanayi, da tsoron taɓarɓarewar alaƙa da ƙasashen Yamma, akwai babban aiki a gabansa na yin sara yana duban bakin gatari.
'Yan dabaru
A yayin da India ke zurfafa ayyukanta da haɗin kan tattalin arziki da Moscow, a bayyane take ƙarara cewa suka daga Ukraine da ƙasashen Yamma ba za ta samu wajen zama a wurinta ba.
Baya ga dukkan wannan, ziyarar Modi zuwa Ukraine wani yunƙuri ne na yin 'yan dabaru na toshe ƙofar rashin kyautawar da ɓangarorin biyu ke yi wa India saboda mu'amalantar Moscow musamman ziyarar da ya kai wa Putin a watan Yuli, wadda Shugaba Vladimir Zelensky ya soka da cewa "babban abin ɓacin rai ne ga ƙoƙarin samar da zaman lafiya."
Ba Ukraine ce kaɗai ke matsa lamba ga India ba, Washington ma na son New Delhi ta yi amfani da kyakkyawar alaƙarta da Rasha ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.
Wannan zai zama babban aiki ga India, wadda har yanzu ba ta soki yaƙin da Rasha ke yi a Ukraine ba. Idan ta zama mai son samar da zaman lafiya, dole ne ta ja hankalin shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin da ya yi magana da Zelensky duk da kutsen da Ukraine ke yi a yankin Kursk na Rasha.
India ta ƙi ɗaukar matsaya kan manyan buƙatun Rasha da na Ukraine da na kasashen Yamma, waɗanda za ta yi amfani da su wajen ganin an kawo zaman lafiya da dakatar da yaƙin.
Ku kalli Babban taron Ukraine a watan Yuni. India ta ƙi amincewa da buƙatun ƙasashen Yamma na "kare martabar iyakokin Ukraine" don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.
Duk da haka, Modi na ƙoƙarin nuna India na tsaka-tsaki game da Kiev, aikin da ba iyakacin zaman lafiya da diflomasiyya yake buƙata ba don rarrashin ƙasashen Yamma. Mahukunta a New Delhi ba su ɓoye ƙin yarda da zama mai shiga tsakani a lokacin tafiyar.
Zaɓi na daban
Ku kalli biyan buƙatun ɓangarori biyu. India na iya haɗa kai da Ukraine a ɓangarori daban-daban kamar ayyukan noma, samar da kayan more rayuwa, kiwon lafiya, ilimi, tsaro da tattalin arziki, amma ba a da tabbas kan gudunmawar da za ta bayar wajen yin sulhu.
Wannan na da muhimmanci saboda Modi ya yi alƙawarin ƙara nuna goyon baya ga zaman lafiyar Ukraine, kuma ya shirya yin tattaunawa mai zurfi kan yaƙin. Amma batu na gaskiya shi ne buƙatar tsaro ta Ukraine a yanzu haka ba ta da wani muhimmanci ga India, kuma ba za ta taɓa yarda ta juya baya ga babbar ƙawarta Rasha ba.
Salon yaƙin a yanzu na tattare da rashin goyon bayan India. Akwai zargi mai ƙarfi cewa ƙasashen Yamma ne suka samar da hanyar da Ukraine ta afka wa yankin Kurks, hakan na barazana ga ɓarkewar yaƙi a dukkan duniya, idan har Amurka ta goyi bayan hare-haren da Ukraine ke ci gaba da kaiwa.
A yayin da rashin yarda da juna tsakanin Washington da Moscow ke ci gaba, India na fuskantar aiki mai wahala na shiga tsakiyar manyan ƙawayenta biyu.
Wani abu mai jan hankali shi ne, buƙatar soji da tattalin arziki idan za a ce India ta yi zaɓi. Tun farkon 2022 India da Rasha sun zurfafa haɗin gwiwa a ɓangarori daban-daban. A yau, India na sayen sama da kashi 40 na albarkatun mai daga Rasha, da kashi 60 na makamanta.
Wani ɓangare na nasarar tattalin arzikin India na samuwa ne saboda ƙawancen diflomasiyya: tana tabbatar da ba ta yi duk wani abu ba da zai ɓata wa Rasha rai, a yayin da take nuna wa Yammacin Duniya cewa mai da makaman Rasha na da muhimmnaci kuma abubuwan buƙata ne ga New Delhi.
A ɓangaren gwamnatin Biden ma, an gaza yin haƙuri. Tuni gwamnatin ta gargaɗi India kan kar ta yi wasa da ƙawancen da take yi da Amurka.
Ba za ta iya biris da Yammacin Duniya ba
India na da kyawawan dalilai na jan ra'ayin Washington cewa da gaske take tana son daidaita alaƙar Ukrane da Rasha.
Da fari dai, dole ne da nuna alamar ɗaukar mataki mai tsauri game rikicin bil'adama da ka iya biyo bayan rikicin. Shirun da India ta yi game da ƙaruwar kashe rayuka a Ukraine a watan Yuli ya janyo damuwa sosai a gwamnatin Biden, tana cewar babbar ƙawarta na yin zagon ƙasa ga taimakon da Yammacin Duniya ke baiwa Kiev.
Dole ne Modi ya kawar da wannan fahimtar a makon nan a yayin ziyarar, kuma alƙawarin da ya yi na "bayyana matsaya kan samar da zaman lafiya a yaƙin Ukraine da ake ci gaba da yi" na iya zama matakin hakan na farko.
India na samun goyon bayan Ƙasashen Yamma waje haɗin kai da ƙawance irin na Ƙawancen Tsaro na Ƙasashe Huɗu na QUAD, da Tsaron Yankin Pacific da Amurka ke jagoranta.
Waɗannan ƙawance na da muhimmanci ga ƙoƙarin India na samun makamashi da haɓaka tattalin arziki a yankin Asia-Pacific, kuma New Delhi na ƙoƙarin saka kanta a matsayin mai samar da tsaro ga ƙawayen Yamma a yankinsu.
Amma waɗannan burace-burace na ƙara kawo tsaiko kan yunƙurin India na zama a tsakiya. A baya, Rasha ta bayyana rashin jin daɗinta ga QUAD, tana mai cewar Amurka da ƙawayenta na ƙalubalantar manufofin Rasha da China a ƙasashe.
Wannan na kawo yanayi mai rikitarwa ga India, wadda ke da manufofin ƙasashen waje a fannoni daban-daban, kuma ta ƙi yarda a yi mata kallon wani ɓangare na mai ƙalubalantar Yammacin Duniya ko Rasha.
Saboda haka, babbar manufar Modi a ziyarar wannan makon ita ce ƙaurace wa zaɓin wani ɓangare a tsakanin Ukraine da Rasha tare da zama tare da Yammacin Duniya. Amma kuma ƙaruwar rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ƙasashen Yamma na ƙara rikita yunƙurin samun daidaito da India ke yi, wanda ke sanya batun zama babba a wajen Modi game da rikicin Ukraine.
Marubucin wannan maƙala Hannan Hussain ƙwararre ne a fannin harkokin ƙasa da ƙasa kuma marubuci. Malami ne na Fulbright kan Tsaron Ƙasa da Ƙasa a Jami'ar Maryland, kuma yana bayar da shawara a cibiyar New Lines da ke Washington. An wallafa ayyukan Hussain a mujallun Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, da the Express Tribune.
Togaciya: Ba dole ba ne ra'ayoyin marubucin su kasance daidai da ra'ayoyi da manufofin edita na TRT Afrika.
