Daga Samuel Ramani
A ranar 23 ga Agusta ne, jirgin sama samfurin Embraer Legacy 600 da ke kan hanya daga Moscow zuwa St. Petersburg ya yi hatsari a yankin Tver da ke Rasha.
Mutanen da ke cikin jirgin saman sun mutu, ciki har da shugaban Kungiyar Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin da wanda suka samar da kungiyar tare Dmitry Utkin.
Nan da nan aka fara muhawara kan musabbabin fadowar jirgin saman - hatsari ne ko harbo shi aka yi da makami mai linzami ko bam.
Sai dai kuma, babbar tambayar ita ce batun dorewar Kungiyar Wagner da kuma karfin da take da shi wajen yaki a duniya.
A yayin da jirgin Embraer Legacy 600 ya fado tare da kusan dukkan manyan kwamandojin Wagner, amma kamfanin sojojin haya mai zaman kansa na nan garau.
Tsohon mataimakin ministan tsaron Rasha Mikhail Mizintzev, wanda ya jagoranji dakarun Rasha yayi mamayar Mariupol, da Kanal Andrei Troshev, wanda shi ne shugaba Putin ya zama don maye gurbin Prigozhin a matsayin shugaban Wagner, ba sa cikin jirgin.
Akwai kananan kwamandojin Wagner da ke ci gaba da jagorantar ayyukan kungiyar a kasashen Siriya, Libiya, Jumhuriyar Afirka ta Tsakiya da Mali da Sudan, da kuma mayakan 4,400 Wagner 4,400 nan a samsanin da aka samar musu a kasar Belarus.
Duk da wadannan kadarori masu muhimmanci, kungiyar Wagner na fuskantar kalubalen ci gaba da wanzuwa bayan mutuwar Prigozhin.
Duk da cewa ya fito bainar jama'a ne a Rasha a watan Satumban 2022, kwarjini da tsananin kishin kasa na Prigozhin ne yake bayyana yaya Wagner suke.
Karfi a Afirka
Mai sharhi kan al'amuran tsaro na Rossiya- 1, Igor Korotchenko ya bayyana cewa tare a ayyukan da Prigozhin ya yi, Wagner ta zama wata kadara ta Rasha da aka fi sani a duniya bayan Kalashnikovs.
A yayin da Prigozhin ya taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen daukar sojojin hayan 40,000 don yaki karkashin Rundunar Sojin Rasha a Bakhmut, sannan ya sanar da sabon daukar ma'aikata don tabbatar da wanzuwar Wagner a Afirka kwana daya kafin mutuwarsa, to babu masaniya kan waye zai maye gurbinsa.
Batun kudaden rike Wagner na halin kasa tana dabo, Valery Chekalov, manaja mai kula da kadarorin albarkatun mai na Wagner a Siriya, kuma mai kula da safarar makamanta, ya mutu a hatsarin jirgin saman.
Mutuwar Chekalovs mai kula da kayayyaki da kuma Prigozhin, na sanya shakku kan yiwuwar dorewar kashe kudade ha Wagner ta hanyar sayar da man fetur, zinare, lu'i-lu'i da suke fitar da su zuwa kasashen waje.
Sakamakon yadda gwamnatin Rasha ta daina baiwa Wagner kudi saboda yunkurin juyin mulki da Wagner ta yi a watan Yinin 2023, kuma Belarus ma ba ta baiwa kungiyar wasu kudade ba, na iya janyo karyewar tattalin arzikin Wagner.
A yayin da karyewar Wagner zai raunata kafin fada a ji na Rasha a Afirka ya kuma hana ta samun dakaru, watakila Putin ya mayar da Wagner karkashin kulawar Ma'aikatar Tsaron Rasha.
Bayanan Putin na yabo da alhini ga Prigozhin bayan mutuwar sa, wand aya bayyana karfin alakrsu da ta faro tun shekarun 1990 da irin ayyukan da ya yi wa kasar Rasha, wani sako ne mai kyau ga Wagner.
Duk da shafin Telegram na Grey Zone mai alaka da Wagner, ya bayyana mayaudaran Rasha ne suka janyo hatsarin jirgin saman da kuma maganar akwai yiwuwar kuskure da aka yi, wanda Mataimakin Shugaban Majalisar Dokokin Rasha ta Duma Sergei Mironov ya yi, na nuni da akwai tsananin tantancewa da tace bayanan da aka yi kan hannun fadar Cremlin a hatsarin.
Yiwuwar maye gurbi
Wannan aiki na tantance bayanai datsoron mai zai je ya komo ne zai iya sanya wa Wagner su koma karkashin sojin Rasha.
Ya zama lallai shigar da ayyukan Wagner a Afria karkashin sojin Rasha ya zama ya tafi dai-dai.
A Sudan, mayakan Wagner ne ke gadin wuraren hakar zinare, kuma tsohon shugaban kasar Rasha Dmitry Medvedev ne ya duba yadda Wagner suka sanya hannu da kamfanin hakar ma'adanai na Meroe.
Ganawar Shugaban Sojojin Kasa na Libiya Khalifa Haftar da Mataimakin Ministan Tsaro na Rasha Yunus-Bek Yevkurov jim kadan bayan mutuwar Prigozhin, da bayani karara na shugaban Jumhuriyar Afirka ta Tsakiya Fausatin-Archange Touadera na hada kai da hukumomin Rasha na karfafa gwiwa.
Taimakon kai tsaye na fadar Cremlin na iya taimakon ayyukan Wagner a Mali d akuma su samu makamai da dama, saboda suna fuskantar karancin kayan aiki sakamakon yakin Yukren.
Ingantaccen shigar da Wagner karkashin Ma'aikatar Tsaro ta Rasha zai sanya su samu sabbin masu sayen ayyukansu, sojojin kasashe irin su Burkina Faso da Nijar na iya aiki da Wagner.
A tsawon lokaci, Cremlin na iya amincewa da PMC tare da ba su ayyuka irin wadanda suka baiwa Wagner.
Redut PMC, wadda ta samu karuwar mayaka daga 300 zuwa 7,000 a shekarar farko ta yakin Yukren, kuma tsohon abokin Prigozhi, Janaral Vladimir Alexeyev ne ya samar da ita, amma tana aiki kafada da kafada da Ma'aikatar Tsaron Rasha.
Wannan zai ba ta dama ta hade da tsaffin mayakan Wagner sannan su dinga aiki don yada manufofin Rasha a duniya ta hanya mai kayatarwa.
Kamfanin mai na Rasha na Gazprom, wanda ke kula da makamashi ga mayakan, zai iya fadada ayyukansa zuwa matakin kasa da kasa.
Domin yin rigakafin abun da Prigozhin ya yi na kokarin kifar da gwamnati bayan jin karfinsa ya kai, Putin na iya goyon bayan PMC. Amma kuma ya ki amincewa da bayar da dukkan ayyakan soji ga mutum daya kadai.
Duk da mutuwar Prigozhin ta janyo sanya tsoro da taka tsan-tsan a Rasha d ama hasashen yiwuwar ganin hargitsi a ayyukan Wagner na kasa da kasa, alamun farko sun bayyana cewa a yanzu mulkin Putin ya samu nutsuwa sosai.
Abubuwan da Prigozhin ya assasa za su kasance a karkashin Wagner da aka yi wa kwaskwarima a hannun kasar Rasha.
Marubucin, Samuel Ramani, kwararre ne kan Alakar Kasa da Kasa kuma wanda ya rubuta "Russia in Africa” & “Putin’s War on Ukraine” .
