Daga Hannan Hussain
Yayin da duniya ke jiran ganin yadda Iran za ta mayar da martani kan kisan gillar da Isra'ila ta yi wa wasu manyan shugabanni guda biyu a baya-bayan nan, dole ne Amurka ta yi taka tsantsan kan irin rawar da za ta taka na abin da zai biyo baya.
Gwamnatin shugaban Amurka Joe Biden na shiri kan "wani gagarumin hari daga Iran" da ƙawayenta bayan kisan Ismail Haniyeh, tsohon shugaban kungiyar Hamas da aka kashe a Tehran a watan da ya gabata, da kuma mutuwar babban kwamandan sojojin Hizbullah Fuad Shukr a Beirut.
Kara yawan tallafin da Amurka ke bai wa Isra'ila na jawo ƙarin fargabar tashin hankali. Biden ya aike da jiragen ruwa na yaƙi da jirgin ruwa zuwa Gabas ta Tsakiya a shirye-shiryen mayar da martanin da Iran za ta yi.
Sannan kuma ya sanya takunkumin sayar da makamai na biliyoyin daloli don tallafawa abin da yake ganin ya dace da "ikon da Isra'ila ke da shi na fuskantar barazanar abokan gaba na yanzu da kuma nan gaba."
Amma da alama ƙara bai wa Isra'ila makamai ba zai yi watsi da hasashen barazanar da ke tsakanin Iran da ƙawayenta ba.
A lokaci ɗaya kuma, bisa ga dukkan fata na kawar da duk wani nau'i na ramuwar gayya, Biden ya sake sabunta yunkurinsa na tsagaita bude wuta a zirin Gaza, wanda Iran ta ce zai iya jinkirta ayyukanta. Duk da haka, Isra'ila ta ci gaba da yi wa tsarin tsagaita bude wuta na Gaza duwatsu.
Kuma saƙo daga Tehran a bayyane yake: ba za ta miƙa kai ga matsin lambar ƙasashen yammacin duniya ba. "Irin waɗannan buƙatun (a kaucewa mayar da martani) ba shi da wata ma'ana ta siyasa mai kan-gado, gabaɗaya sun saɓa wa dokokin duniya, kuma sun zama buƙatu da suka wuce kima," kakakin ma'aikatar harkokin waje ta Iran Naseer Kanani ya faɗa wannan makon.
Shin Washington ta yi niyyar yin kuka da kanta kan bazuwar yaƙi tsakanin isra'ila da Iran a Gabas ta Tsakiya?
Tattaunawa mara adadi A wajen Tehran, kai hari wajibi ne saboda kashe Haniyeh ya faru ne a ƙasarta. A halin da ake ciki, Isra'ila za ta iya bayar da uzurin mayar da martaninta game da yiwuwar kai mata hari a matsayin kare kai da ya wajaba. Jami'an Isra'ila sun ce yaƙi da Iran babu makawa kuma ya kamata Amurka ta kai farmaki yanzu.
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) August 15, 2024
Wani hari da harin ramuko za su iya haddasa rikicin da zai dulmuya Washington cikin yaƙin yanki mai bazuwa. Amurka ta ce ba ta son haka. Bayan Isra'ila ta kashe manyan jami'an sojin Iran guda biyu a Syria a watan Afrilu, Amurka ta matsa wa Isra'ila lamba kan ta kauce wa farmaki gaba da gaba da Hezbollah - babbar ƙawar Iran - sannan ta tabbatar Isra'ila ba za ta jure yaƙi na tsawon lokaci ba.
Ko shakka babu, yaƙi ta fuskoki da dama tsakanin isra'ila da ƴankanzagin Iran, musamman Hezbollah, zai iya gwada ƙwarin goyon baya ido- rufe da Amurka take bai wa Isra'ila, da kuma hulɗarta ta diflomasiyyar rikice rikice a yankin.
Yi la'akari da yanayin rashin tabbas na farmakin Iran da lokacin kai shi. Mayaƙan Iran za su iya kai ɗauki a duk farmakin da Iran ta zaɓa, abin da ke zama mai wahala wajen Washington ta yi hasashen yiwuwar hare hare kan Isra'ila daga Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Iraq ko Yemen.
A wata sanarwar haɗin-gwiwa, ƙasashen yammacin duniya guda biyar, da suka haɗa da #Amurka da #Faransa, sun yi kira ga #Iran da kada ta kai harin da ake tsammani kan #Isra'ila. Wannan roƙon na zuwa ne lokacin da ake ci gaba da nuna damuwa kan faruwar yaƙi a yankin, kamar yadda @VedikaBahl suka ruwaito.
— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) August 13, 2024
Har ila yau, akwai hasara ta fuskar diflomasiyya. Gwamnatin Biden na goyon bayan masalahar diflomasiyya ta gaggawa tsakanin isra'ila da Hezbollah, kuma tana yi wa lamarin kallon muhimmi wajen kauce wa babban yaƙin yanki.
Amma za ta yi kasadar rasa alaƙar diflomasiyya da ta samu da jiɓin goshi idan isra'ila ta gabatar da martanin soji kan Iran, ko ta aiwatar da "shirin yaƙi ta fuskoki da dama" don kawai ta nuna cancantar kai farmaki a ko'ina a yankin.
Ƙaruwar nuna damuwar jama'a
Wani abun da ya kamata a yi la'akari da shi shi ne nuna damuwar jama'a. Mutane kaɗan ne daga cikin Amurkawa ke da sha'awar Amurka ta shiga wani yaƙin.
Ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a ta nuna galibin Amurkawa suna adawa da Amurka ta tura sojoji su kare Isra'ila. Goyon bayan jama'a kan hakan ya disashe sannu a hankali tun da Isra'ila ta fara kai farmaki kan Gaza a shekarar da ta gabata.
Amma dai, duk wani bazuwar yaƙi tsakanin Iran da Isra'ila zai iya dagula al'amurra a Washington idan ana duba yiwuwar ko a shiga yaƙi mara farin jini a yi kasadar rasa goyon bayan ɗimbin matasa masu jefa kuri'a gabannin zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na watan Nuwamba.
Duk da mafi rinjayen Amurkawa suna adawa da tura sojojin Amurka su kare Isra'ila idan aka kai mata hari, amma suna goyon bayan yin amfani da dakarun Amurka a matsayin masu wanzar da zaman lafiya a wata yarjejeniya tsakanin isra'ila da Falasdinawa. Ƙarin Sakamakon Binciken @ChicagoCouncil: https://t.co/M7tqya3sNt
— Chicago Council game da al'amurran duniya (@ChicagoCouncil) August 12, 2024
Dalolin masu biyan haraji su ma wasu ƙarin dalilai ne. Majalisar dokokin da al'ummar Amurka suna ƙara yin adawa da irin kuɗaɗen da Washington ke kashewa a yaƙe yaƙe marasa iyaka - ana bayar da misali da shekarun da Amurka ta kwashe tana mamayar Afghanistan da Iraqi da bai haifar da wani ɗa mai ido ba.
Ƙaruwar zaman tankiya tsakanin Amurka da Iran zai iya sawa Washington ta ƙara adadin kuɗaɗen da take bai wa sojojin isra'ila kuma ta kashe kuɗin talakawa ta gudanar da wani yaƙin.
Yaƙin da Isra'ila ta kaddamar kan Gaza ya jawo dubun dubatar Amurkawa su yi adawa da daukar nauyin yaƙin da Amurika ke yi, inda wasu da dama suka ƙi biyan haraji.
Duka waɗannan dalilan za su iya kawo wa Washington tangarɗa idan aka samu ɓarkewar yaƙi tsakanin isra'ila da Iran.
Jefa sojojin Amurka cikin hatsari
Yaƙi tsakanin Iran da Isra'ila zai iya jefa cibiyoyin sojin Amurka a yankin cikin hatsari. Wannan ya haɗa da sojojin Amurka da dama da aka girke a ƙananan sansanonin sojoji a yankin.
Shin hakan zai iya hana isra'ila ta kai wa Hezbollah hari, wannan kungiyar dai da Amurka ke tattaunawa da ita ta fuskar diflomasiyya?
Kuma mene ne magaryar tuƙewar Washington a daidai lokacin da Isra'ila take yaƙi a Gaza da ma abin da zai biyo baya?
Ɓarkewar yaƙi a yankin da kuma tsawai yaƙin isra'ila na watanni goma a Gaza zai iya ta'azzara wasu hare haren nan gaba.
Balle ma, mayaƙa masu samun goyon bayan Iran sun farmaki dakarun Amurka sau dayawa a Iraqi ɗaukacin watan farko na soma yaƙin isra'ila a Gaza.
Faɗaɗa yaƙin isra'ila da Iran zai iya nuna shigar wasu jama'ar masu tasiri, kamar Hezbollah,abin da zai dasa alamar tambaya game da manyan muradun Washington a Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Shin hakan zai iya hana isra'ila ta kai wa Hezbollah hari, wannan kungiyar dai da Amurka ke tattaunawa da ita ta fuskar diflomasiyya? Kuma mene ne magaryar tuƙewar Washington a daidai lokacin da Isra'ila take yaƙi a Gaza da ma abin da zai biyo baya?
Zaɓin da suka rage
A maimakon ci gaba da wadata isra'ila da makamai, gwamnatin Biden tana da wasu zaɓi na gaggawa. Za ta iya amfani da cinikin makamai ta matsa wa Isra'ila lamba wajen tsagaita wuta.
Tsawon watanni, biliyoyin dala na tallafin soji mara iyaka ya sangarta isra'ila game yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta a Gaza, kuma ya haifar da mummunar rashin yarda tsakanin Hamas da Isra'ila. Yanzu wannan rashin yardar na barazanar ruguza ƙoƙarin shiga tsakani a Doha
Haƙiƙa, dakatar da sayar wa isra'ila makamai zai iya isar da saƙo mai ƙarfi wa shugabancin firaministan isra'ila mai tsattsauran ra'ayi, Benjamin Netanyahu, cewa yanzu Amurka na son a kawo ƙarshen yaƙin bisa sharuɗanta. Har ila yau, ya kamata Amurka ta ƙaƙaba wa Isra'ila takunkumai da tuni ya kamata a saka mata saboda yi wa dokokin duniya karan-tsaye, da kuma azabtarwa da rundunonin sojojin suka aikata a Gaza.
Duk waɗannan take doka ce, wacce ta buƙaci Amurka bisa doka ta dena bayar da tallafi wa rundunonin soji da aka samu da cin zarafin bil adama.
Lokaci na ƙurewa Lokaci na ƙurewa. Washington ta haɗu da Masar da Qatar domin wani sabon zagayen tattaunawar tsagaita wuta wannan makon, don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin a Gaza, abin da Biden ya yi iƙirarin zai iya hana harin Iran kan isra'ila. Za a dawo teburin tattaunawar tsagaita wuta a Gaza ranar Alhamis. Amma duk da azama ta baya bayan nan daga masu shiga tsakani, har yanzu da sauran ruwa a kaba, kuma galibin jama'a da masharhantan isra'ila suna zargin Benjamin Netanyahu pic.twitter.com/fb8Uun44Iw
— TRT World (@trtworld) August 15, 2024
Amma galibin kwarin guiwar game da yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta na Amurka an zuguguta shi. Tehran ta ƙi amincewa da tattaunawa kai tsaye game da tsagaita wuta, kuma jami'an Hezbollah sun tabbatar wa Reuters cewa martanin Iran na nan zuwa.
Wannan yana da muhimmanci saboda Washington na neman ƙarin kafofin tattaunawa da Tehran domin taƙaitawa ko hana farmakin Iran ko ta wane hali.
Amma tana lissafi da shirin tsagaita wuta da bai karɓu ba kuma isra'ila ke amfani da shi wajen kashe kashe da daƙile shirin shiga tsakani.
A yau, gazawar Amurka ta tursasa babbar ƙawarta isra'ila yana kawo wa muradunta tasgaro.
Barazanar yaƙin yanki mai faɗi na barazana ga diflomasiyyar Amurka ta rikice rikice, kuma zai iya yin illa ta tsawon lokaci ga kayayyakin sojin Amurka a yankin, sa'annan ba zai iya hana Iran kai wa Isra'ila hari ba. Ya kamata a zargi Washington kan ta'azzara yakin da take son a kaucewa.
