Kisan shugaban kungiyar Hezbollah Hasan Nasrallah ya faru ne a yayin da Iran ke tsaka da zuba jari mai dogon zango a Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Kasancewar Nasrallah wani babban jigo — a fannin soji da ma na siyasa - da kuma ga gamayyar ƙawancen Iran ta "Axis of Resistance", wata gamayyar ƙawayenta na yanki, a yanzu mutuwarsa ta sauya abubuwa da dama na tsare-tsaren da ake da su.
Dr Mustafa Yetim na Jami'ar Eskisehir Osmangazi ya jaddada muhimmancin wannan kisa ga samun daidaito a yankin, inda a wata hira da TRT World ya ce "Kawar da manyan mutane kamar Nasrallah yana raunana ba kawai Hezbollah ba har ma da tasirin Iran."
A cewar Yetim, Hezbollah wadda ta kasance babbar kadara ta Iran a yankin, a yanzu ta rasa fitaccen shugabanta.
"Wannan sakamako na farko, hakika, ya samo asali ne daga wasu abubuwan da suka faru a yankin tun bayan barkewar ranar 7 ga Oktoba."
Duk da haka, wannan ba asarar soji ba ce kawai. Ƙwararre kan abin da ya shafi Iran Dr Mehmet Koc ya bayyana wa TRT World cewa Nasrallah ya taka muhimmiyar rawa ga Iran.
"Nasrallah ba wai shugaban soji ba ne kawai, zai iya tafiyar da al'amuran siyasa a Gabas ta Tsakiya ga Iran. Duk da haka, Nasrallah, kamar Qasem Soleimani, mutum ne da za a iya maye gurbinsa ga Iran," in ji Koc.
Godiya ga Nasrallah, Hezbollah, wadda ita ce babbar ƙawar Iran a Labanon, ta zama ba wai kawai kungiyar gwagwarmaya ba, har ma babbar jigo a siyasar Lebanon. Koc ya yi imanin cewa sake tabbatar da wannan daidaiton siyasa bayan mutuwar Nasrallah zai zama kalubale.
Dabarun leƙen asirin Isra'ila
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Isra'ila ta sauya daga hare-haren soji da aka saba da su wajen far wa Hezbollah zuwa dabarun zamani. Kisan Nasrallah babban misali ne na wannan sabuwar dabara.
Yetim ya bayyana sabon salon salon Isra'ila: "A wannan karon, Isra'ila ta kauce wa yaƙin basasa, maimakon haka ta raunana Hizbullah ta hanyar leƙen asiri da kai hare-hare ta intanet."
Ya ce Isra'ila ta koyi darasi daga irin asarar da ta yi a lokacin yaƙin Lebanon na 2006, kuma ta yi amfani da wannan dabara wajen kai hari kan manyan masu faɗa a ji a kungiyar Hezbollah, wanda hakan ya kassara ƙwarin gwiwar ƙungiyar da ƙarfin soja.
Hezbollah, bayan da ta dogara da nasarorin da ta samu a baya, ta yi tsammanin za ta kai farmaki ta ƙasa daga Isra'ila. Duk da haka, Isra'ila ta ɗauki wani salo na daban.
Koc ya yi ƙarin haske kan illar da wannan dabara mara kan-gado ta Hezbollah ta haifar.
"Nasrallah ya yi tunanin Isra'ila za ta shiga Lebanon kamar yadda ta yi a 2006, amma a maimakon haka, Isra'ila ta zaɓi kai farmaki ta hanyar leƙen asiri."
Koc ya ƙara da cewa "Raunana jagorancin kungiyar Hezbollah da mambobi kusan 4,000 ta hanyar kai musu hare-hare ta intanet da ake yi ba makawa za su haifar da rauni na wucin gadi a yaƙin da suke da Isra'ila."
Rikicin shugabanci a cikin Hezbollah
Ba Hamas kadai ba hatta Hezbollah ta fuskanci babban koma baya a rikicin da take yi da Isra'ila.
"Wani kuskuren dabara a yayin wannan tsari shi ne, Hezbollah ta dauki wannan tsari a matsayin yaƙi a salon da aka saba da shi, na rikici tsakaninta da Isra'ila. Kuma ka san a baya, Hezbollah ta samu karin nasarori na siyasa,da fannin soja, da sauran nau'o'in riba daga salon yaƙinta da ta saba da Isra'ila a 2006, "in ji Yetim.
Wannan dogaro da dabarun da suka gabata ya ci tura. Isra'ila ba ta taɓa shiga kudancin Lebanon ba, wanda hakan ya sa Hezbollah ba ta shirya wani sabon yakin da ya shafi leken asiri da dabarun intanet ba.
Masana sun yi hasashen samun sabon rikicin shugabanci, wanda mutuwar Nasrallah za ta jawo, wanda zai raunana tasirin kungiyar Hezbollah a yankin.
"Idan babu Nasrallah, Hezbollah za ta fuskanci wani gagarumin giɓin shugabanci, wanda zai rage tasirinta a yankin."
Koc ya jaddada cewa cike wannan giɓin gagarumin aiki ne.
"Nasrallah shi ne shugaban da ya daidaita dukkan bangarorin gamayyar ƙawancen yanki ta Iran. Magajinsa zai bukaci lokaci don gudanar da wadannan hadaddun alaƙoƙi, amma abubuwan da ke faruwa cikin gaggawa a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya na iya hana hakan," in ji Koc.
Hakan kuma na iya katse goyon bayan Iran ga sauran ƙawayenta na yankin, in ji shi.
Rushewar ƙarfin soja
Jami'an leƙen asiri na intanet na Isra'ila sun bibiyi bayanan shugabannin kungiyar Hezbollah da mambobi kusan 4,000, lamarin da ya yi illa ga ayyukan kungiyar.
Yetim ya yi imanin cewa wannan halin da ake ciki ya ba Isra'ila babbar fa'ida.
Yetim ya ce: "Isra'ila ta yi amfani da kai hare-hare ta intanet don raunana tsarin cikin gida na Hezbollah, wanda hakan ya sanya kungiyar ta kasance zai mata wahala wajen shirya ayyukan soji."
A karkashin wadannan sharudda, sake gina karfin soji na Hezbollah na iya daukar lokaci mai tsawo.
Koc ya yi hasashen cewa Isra'ila za ta ƙara ƙaimi, tare da kara matsin lamba kan kungiyar Hezbollah tare da mai da murmurewarta da kalubale.
Daidaiton iko a Lebanon
Yetim ya lura da cewa Hezbollah tana bin ka'idojin siyasar Nasrallah ne a fagen siyasar kasar Lebanon. Yanzu dai ana fuskantar tabarbarewar shugabanci, da alama tasirin siyasar Hezbollah zai ragu.
"Jagorancin Nasrallah shi ne ginshikin ikon siyasa na Hezbollah, kuma yanzu wannan tsarin yana cikin hadari," in ji Yetim.
"Kisan Nasrallah ya rufe da'irar wata nau'in 'nasara' da ba a samu a Gaza ba. Abubuwan da ke faruwa ga Gaza suna da tsanani: Hezbollah ita ce babbar mai samar da makamai. Tun 1994 ya samo magaji (dan'uwan Nasrallah na wajen uwa kuma ya taba zama dalibin tauhidi a shahararriyar makarantar hauza ta Kum)," in ji Dr Larbi Sadiki, wani masani a kungiyar bunkasa kimiyya ta kasar Japan wanda ya ƙware kan tsarin dimokradiyya a kasashen Larabawa, a tattaunawarsa da TRT World.
Koc ya kuma yi imanin cewa, wannan gurbacewar ikon za ta zama jarrabawa ga kawayen Hezbollah. "Bayan mutuwar Nasrallah, ƙawayen Hezbollah za su bukaci sake tantance matsayinsu," in ji shi.
Wannan halin da ake ciki zai iya ba da dama ga sauran masu ruwa da tsaki na siyasa a Lebanon su sami madafun iko, kuma hakan zai iya haifar da "asara sannu a hankali ga Iran da amincinta wajen kame Isra'ila da goyon bayan ƙawayenta na yankin, musamman Hamas da Hezbollah."
