Daga Salman Niyazi
A dakunan taruka a Brussels, ana ci gaba da tattanawa a hankali dangane da makomar takunkumen da aka sanya wa Siriya. Ma’aikatan Tarayyar Turai, wadanda aka san su da bin abubuwa a hankali da auna kowane mataki cikin taka-tsan-tsan, ba sa gaggawar manya-manyan sauya-sauye.
Amma dai sauyin na tafe: bayan faduwar gwamnatin Bashar al-Assad ba zato ba tsammani a watan Disambar 2024, Tarayyar Turai tana shirin daukar mataki na tarihi na jingine wasu daga takunkumen da ta sanya wa gwamntin.
Tarihin takunkumen da aka sanya wa Siriya ya faro ne daga 2011 lokacin da Tarayyar Turai ta kadu da irin matakin rashin Imani da gwamnatin Assad ta dauka wajen tarwatsa zanga-zangar lumana, inda daga nan ta dakatar da duk wata hadaka ta diflomasiyya da gwamnatin Syria.
A cikin shekaru, takunkumen sun rikide zuwa manyan dabaibayai ga gwamnati, da suka kama daga hana taba kadarorin Babban Bankin Siriya zuwa hana fitar da mai da kuma sanya iyaka a bangaren makamashi. Kari a kan haka takunkumen na Turai sun shafi hatta kayayyakin al’ada da aka gada, da karafa masu daraja da lu’ulu’u. An haramta wa cibiyoyin kudi na Siriya bude rassa a Turai.
Kara wa’adin takunkumen na baya-bayan nan ya faru ne a ranar 28 ga watan Mayu, kuma zai ci gaba da aiki har zuwa 1 ga watan Yulin 2025. Sai dai faduwar gwamnatin Assad bagatatan ta sauya komai. A yanzu Tarayyar Turai tana shirin sauyi a kan maufofinta na takunkumen.
“Za mu yanku hukunci … mu … jingine wasu takunkumai kan bangarorin makamashi da sufuri da kuma cibiyoyin kudi,” kamar yadda Ministan Harkokin Wajen Faransa Jean-Noël Barrault ya bayyana dab da taron Majalisar Harkokin Waje a Brussels. Babban jami’in diflomasiyya na Tarayyar Turai Kaja Kallas shi ma ya tabbatar da matakin “sassauta takankuman” nan kusa.
To sai dai Tarayyar Turai din na sanya wasu tsauraran matakai masu sarkakiya. Ana bukatar hukumomin Siriya su kaddamar da “tsarin komawa mulkin dimokuradiyya da zai kunshi duka ‘yan Siriya,” ta tabbatar da yakar “duk wani mataki na farfadowar DAESH,” da ba da tabbacin “iko da lalata duk wasu makamai masu guba daga gwamnatin Assad.”
Shugabannin Tarayyar Turai suna suna jadddada bukatar bin matakai daki-daki, yayin da ba su fito fili sun bayyana cewa da wuya a iya aiwatar da manyan sauye-sauye a karkashin tsauraran takunkumai ba.
A watan Disamba, Shugbabar Hukumar Tarayyar Turai Ursula von der Leyen, ta yi gargadin cewa sauyin gwamnati a Syria “ ya kawo damarmaki da dama, amma fa akwai hadari.” Wannan na nuni kururu da irin matakan rashin tabbas da kuma taka-tsan-tsan da Turai ke yi, wacce ta zabi kada ta fada babban hadari.
Sauyi kadan aka samu tun daga lokacin, Tarayyar Turai kuma na ci gaba raba kafa tsakanin goyon bayan sake gina Siriya da kuma tabbatar da cewa sauyin take so a samu ba a lalace ba.
Matsayin sabuwar gwamnatin Siriya ya haifar da wani yanayi mai sarkakiya. Har yanzu Kungiyar Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) wacce Ahmed al-Sharaa yake jagoranta tana cikin jerin kungiyoyin ta’addanci na Tarayya Turai. Wannan ya haifar da matsala ta fuskar doka wajen yin mu’amala kai-tsaye, abin da yake bukatar gagarumin tsarin aiki da daukar matakai wajen warware wa.
Ya kamata a yi la’akari da mutuntuka: Tarayya Turai ta kasance wacce ta fi bayar da agaji jin kai ga Siriya. Tun 2011, Tarayyar Turai da kasashe mambobinta sun samar da sama da yuro biliyan 35 na tallafin jin kai, da daidaita lamura, da tallafawa mutane su ci gaba da jajircewa a cikin Siriya da kasashe makwafta.
Yana kuma da muhimmanci a bayyana cewa ko da a lokacin da takunkuman Turai suke kan ganiyarsu wajen matsa lamba, kungiya ta ci gaaba da cire tallafi daga cikin abubuwan da aka sanya wa takunkumi. Takunkuman ba su taba hana shigar da abinci da magunguna da kayan kula da lafiya ba. Bayan mummunar girgizar kasar 6 ga Fabrairun 2023, an kara janye wasu takunkuman na jin kai don ba da damar kai agaji nan take ga jama’ar Siriya.
A yanzu da ake duba yiwuwar sassauta takunkuman, jami’an Turai suna aiki a kan kowane mataki. A bayyana ne take cewa wadannan matakan da ake dauka sannu-sannu wadanda suke tafiyar hawainiya, rashin saurinsu ya yi yawa ga kasar da yaki ya daidaita. Sai dai shugabannin Turai sun amince cewa wadannan matakan za su tabbatar da cewa samar da dawwamammen zaman lafiya da daidatar al’amura a karshe. Sai dai ’yan Siriya ba za su iya ci gaba da jira ba…
Tattalin arziki a cikin tsaka mai wuya
“Ba tare da ci-gaban tattalin arziki ba za mu koma cikin rudani,” – wadannan kalmomin daga Ahmed al Sharaa tamkar wani hukunci ne. Sabon shugaban Siriya ba zuzuta batun yake ba: tattalin arzikin kasar yana cikin tsaka mai wuya.
Ana samun wuta ne kawai ta tsawon sa’a daya a kowace rana. Sake ginin kasar gagarumin aiki ne. Kasar tana fuskantar mummunar asara a bangaren hannayen jari – ta yadda girman matsalar ta kai ko da biyan albashi kadan ya gagara.
Shekarun da aka shafe ana yakin basasa, da cin zarafin fararen hula da takunkumen kasa da kasa sun mayar da kasar da a baya take da tattalin arziki mai karfi zuwa wata abar tausayi.
Duk da cewa takunkumen ba su hada da shigar da abinci da magani da kayan agaji ba, samun muhimman kayayyakin bukatun yau da kullum ya zama takaitacce. Siriya na fuskantar matsanancin hauhawar farashi, darajar kudin kasar ta karye, sannan akwai mummunan yawan marasa aikin yi.
A cikin wannan yanayin, sabon shugabancin kasar ya fara neman makama. Sabon shugabancin Siriya yana da akalla zabuka biyu. Na farko shi ne Tarayyar Turai, abin da zai kushi doguwar tattaunawa da cika sharuda da dama: daga kafa gwamnatin da za ta kunshi kowance bangare zuwa yaki da burbushin DAESH, daga samun iko da makamai masu guba zuwa tabbatar da ‘yancin tsiraru. Abu ne mai fadi, da hanya mai sarkakiya wacce za ta iya kai wa ga karin wasu manyan bukatun daga jami’an Turai.
Hanya ta biyu ita ce ta Rasha, da sharuda masu yalwa da kuma sauki, da kuma bukatu na kai tsaye. Moscow ba ta gabatar da jerin bukatu da siyasa. Ta fi damuwa ne kawai da wanzar da sansanoninta na soja a Tartus da Khmeimim – wurare masu muhimmanci da za su tabbatar da cewa tana da wajen zama a kogin Meditareniya. Ita kuma Rasha a maimakon haka, a shirya take ta taimaka wajen farfado da tattalin arziki.
Kasancewar sabon shugabancin Siriya ya gaji bashin Rasha na dala biliyan 8 daga zamanin gwamnatin Assad, yana kokarin amfani da wannan don amfanin kansa. “A siysa babu makiyi na din-din-din,” a cewar Ministan Tsaron Siriya Murhaf Abu Qasra, yana magana kan yiwuwar wanzuwar sansanin Rasha. “Idan Siriya za ta amfana daga wannan – za mu yi haka.”
Wannan matakin ya kara matas wa masu tattaunawa na Turai lamba, wadanda suke jin tsoron cewa wannan jinkirin na dage takunkuman za su iya kai Rasha ta kara samun tasiri a yankin.
Gwamnatin Syria tana amfani da wannan rige-rigen. Takunkuman Yamma, kamar yadda al-Sharaa ya ce suna da “matukar hadari” ga tsarin sake gina kasar. Za a iya ganin wannan kalamai a matsayin wata ishara ga Turai: cewa jinkirin janye takunkuman za su iya tura Damascus kusa da hadaka da Moscow.
A wani bangaren kuma, yanayin tattalin arzikin na ci gaba da tabarbarewa. Rashin samun tallafi daga waje bayan nasarar ‘yan tawaye watanni biyu da suka gabata na kara ta’azzara lamura. Takunkuman tattalin arziki kan cibiyoyin kudin Siriya na ci gaba da aiki, kuma yana kawo nakasu ga farfadowar tattalin arziki.
A karkashin wadannan ka’idojin duk wani jinkiri wajen janye su wani mataki ne da zai iya iza tafiya wajen daya bangaren da zai samar da mafita mai sauri, kuma mara sarkakiya.
Brussels na sany ka’idoji, Moscow na samar da “yarjejeniya”
Yayin da jami'an Turai ke aiki da dabara kan kowane batu na yiwuwar yarjejeniya da sabuwar gwamnatin Siriya, diflomasiyyar Rasha ta yi juyi mai ban sha'awa. Lura da irin goyon bayan da ta bai wa gwamnatin Assad na tsawon shekaru goma a lokacin yakin basasa, ba tare da bata lokaci ba Moscow ta fara kulla alaka da dakarun da suka hambarar da mulkin kama-karya na Syria.
A cikin watan Janairun 2025, wata guda kacal bayan faduwar Assad, wata tawaga ta Rasha karkashin jagorancin wakilin musamman na shugaban kasa Mikhail Bogdanov ta isa Damascus domin yin tattaunawa kai tsaye.
Hakan ya biyo bayan tattaunawar farko ta wayar tarho tsakanin Vladimir Putin da Ahmad al-Sharaa a ranar 12 ga Fabrairu. Azihiri, wannan tuntuɓar ta faru ne kafin ma shugabannin Turai da yawa su yanke shawarar matsayinsu game da sabon shugabancin Siriya.
Da yake magana kan ziyarar ta watan Janairu, Ministan Harkokin Wajen Rasha Sergey Lavrov ya ce, "A bayyane take cewa daya daga cikin abubuwan da ke damun su a halin yanzu shi ne hana sake aukuwar abin da ya faru a Libya, inda hare-haren NATO suka janyo wa kasar rasa matsayinta, da wargajewa, da kuma kasa sake hadewa." A cewarsa, sabon shugabancin na Damascus ya tabbatar da muhimmancin kiyaye dangantakar da ke tsakanin kasashen biyu bisa manyan tsare-tsare da dangtaka da ke tsakanin kasashen a tarihi.
Babbar tambaya a dangantakar Rasha da Siriya a fili take: makomar sansanonin soja a Tartus da Khmeimim. Ga Rasha, wannan lamari ne na kasancewa a yankin. Tartus shi ne kawai wajen da jirgin ruwa na yakin Rasha yake da muhimman kayan aikinta a cikin Tekun Bahar Rum.
Shi kuma Khmeimim, yana matsayin babban sansanin jiragen sama, yana tabbatar da kasancewar sojojin Rasha ba kawai a cikin Siriya ba har ma a cikin fadin yankin.
A cewar majiyoyin Bloomberg da ke da masaniya kan shawarwarin, Rasha na gab da cim ma yarjejeniya da sabuwar gwamnatin Syria domin ci gaba da zaman wani bangare na sojojinta a kasar. Wannan ya ƙunshi rage sojojin masu muhimmanci.
Ga Moscow, wannan zai zama babbar nasara ta diflomasiyya da kuma ba ta damar kare muradunta, musamman ma ganin cewa da farko masu lura da al'amura sun yi hasashen janyewar sojojin Rasha gaba daya bayan faduwar Assad.
Bangaren Siriya yana nuna kyakkyawan tsari da shiri don wannan "yarjejeniyar." Eh, “muddin duk wata yarjejeniya da fadar Kremlin ta yi amfani da muradun kasar,” Ministan Tsaro Murhef Abu Kasra ya yi amfani da wannan tsari mai sauki wajen ayyana matsayin Damascus kan sansanonin Rasha. Wannan fa'ida da buɗaɗɗen tsari sun bambanta sosai da tsarin yanayi da buƙatun da ma'aikatan Turai suka gabatar.
Har ila yau Rasha a shirye take ta tattauna batun taimakon tattalin arziki da kuma shiga aikin sake gina kasar. Moscow ta bayyana aniyar taimaka wa Syria wajen sake gina tattalin arzikinta, kuma nan take sabbin hukumomin Damascus suka fara kididdige alfanun da ke tattare da ci gaba da kulla alaka da Moscow, ciki har da kayayyakin soji.
A nata bangaren, kungiyar Tarayyar Turai na kokarin ganin ta dakile yadda Rasha ke kare tasirinta. "Wani sansani ne inda kuma suke gudanar da ayyukansu zuwa kasashen Afirka da makwabtan yankin ta bangaren kudanci,” a cewar Kaja Kalas, jami'in diflomasiyyar Tarayyar Turai, wanda ya bayyana haka gabannin shiga sabuwar shekara.
Don haka ko shakka babu wannan yana da matukar damuwa ga tsaron Turai ma. Ministan Holland Caspar Veldkamp ya fi fito da bayanin a fili: "Game da sansanonin sojojin Rasha a Siriya, muna son Rashawa su fita."
Duk da haka, yayin da jami'an diflomasiyyar Turai ke nuna damuwa da tsara buƙatun, Rasha ta hanyar dabara tana ci gaba kokarin cim ma manufarta, bin ka'idodin siyasa na gaske.
A cikin wannan gasa ta sauri da bin komai cikin, taka tsan-tsan din EU ya bai wa Rasha damar yin aiki ba kawai a Ukraine ba har ma a Siriya. Sabon jagoranci na Syria yana amfani da yanayin da ake ciki da basira, yana duba kowane bangare da karfin da suke da shi da kuma samun zabar dukkan abin da yake mafifi daga dukkan bangarorin.
