A ranar Lahadi ne Jagoran Addini na Iran Ali Khamenei ya kamata ya amince da zaɓaɓɓen shugaban Iran Masoud Pezeshkian. Bayan kwanaki a ranar 30 ga watan Yuli, majalisar dokokin ƙasar za ta rantsar da shi a hukumance a matsayin shugaban ƙasa.
Ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa Pezeshkian, mai shekaru 69 likitan tiyatar zuciya, ya lashe zaben shugaban kasa a Iran. Sabanin mafi yawan bincike, nasararsa ba ta nuna dawowar zamanin masu neman sauyi ba.
A maimakon haka, zaben nasa wani sabon salo ne na Jagoran Addini na Iran, Ali Khomeini, wanda abin mayar da hankali a kai shi ne cire Iran daga matsayin da aka ajiye ta na saniyar ware da kuma kara ruruta wutar shigar al'umma cikin gida cikin harkokin siyasa.
Sauyi na nan tafe
Majalisar Koli Ta Amintattu ta Iran mai suna Guardian Council, ta haramta wa Pezeshkian tsayawa takarar shugaban ƙasa a 2021 wadda majalisa ce ta musamman da ke ɗauke da manyan malamai 12 da alƙalai waɗanda suke da ƙarfi a Iran.
Majalisar na auna ƙarfin kishin addini da juyin juya hali na 'yan takara haka kuma ta dakatar da masu ra'ayin neman sauyi da dama da kuma masu matsakaicin ra'ayi daga tsayawa takara.
Ganin yadda majalisar kolin ta amince da Pezeshkian a zaɓen baya-bayan nan ya nuna wata alama a bayyane da ke nuna cewa Khamenei ya ɗan sauya matsaya.
Wannan yunƙurin yana daga cikin wasu tsare-tsare uku na jawo masu zaɓe zuwa ga akwatunan zaɓe, sake farfaɗo da ƙarfin gwamnati wanda ya samu tasgaro musamman a tsakanin matasa da marasa rinjaye, da kuma samar da hanyar gyara martaba, don taimaka wa Iran ta koma "ma'amala mai ma'ana" da kasashen yamma da kuma kawo karshen takunkumin tattalin arziki da na banki.
Idan ba haka, Jagoran Addini Khamenei da bai buƙaci cikakken goyon bayan majalisa ba dangane da sabon shugaban ƙasar a jawabinsa na farko bayan zaɓe.
"Ina jaddada cewa ina son cikakken goyon baya daga majalisa da zaɓaɓɓen shugaban ƙasa," in ji Khamenei. "Idan ya samu nasarar inganta tattalin arziki, tsarin ƙasa da ƙasa da na al'ada, to nasararsa nasararmu ce."
Masana sun yi hasashen cewa za a samu ƙarancin masu jefa ƙuri'a a zaɓen, kaso 60 cikin 100 na masu zaɓen ba su jefa ƙuri'a a zagayen farko ba. Sai dai dabarar da aka yi ta amfani da ɗan takara mai ra'ayin kawo sauyi ta biya buƙata a zagaye na biyu, inda aka samu kaso 50 cikin 100 da suka fito.
Rashin fitowar jama'a ya kasance babban dalilin damuwa ga Iran, wadda ke samun ƙarfi da ikonta don tara jama'a lokacin da ake buƙata.
Hakazalika, Pezeshkian ba mai son kawo sauyi ba ne, kuma hadin gwiwarsa da tsohon ministan harkokin wajen kasar Jawad Zarif, wanda ya sake bayyana a fagen siyasa, yana nuni da alkiblar siyasar Iran cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa.
Da gaske ne Pezeshkian na cikin majalisun ministoci biyu tsakanin 1997 zuwa 2005. Sai dai a shekaru 20 da suka gabata a matsayinsa na ɗan majalisa mai tsatsauran ra'ayi, ya koma koma mai sassaucin ra'ayi.
Aminantakarsa da tsohon ministan harkokin waje Zarif, inda yake kiransa malaminsa tare da sumbatar hannunsa a bainar jama'a, wanda wata alama ce ta sauyin zuciya.
Zarif, wanda yake da ƙwarewa sosai ta ɓangaren tattaunawa da ƙasashen yamma, an zaɓe shi domin jagorantar wani kwamiti na tsare-tsaren cikin gida da na waje, wanda ke da alhakin bayar da shawara kan waɗanda suka cancanta domin naɗa ministoci. Wannan da tsarin amincewa da dukkan mambobin majalisar ministocin sun kasance ayyuka masu wahala.
Dangantaka da ƙasashen duniya
A wata maƙala da aka wallafa mai taken "saƙona ga sabuwar duniya," Pezeshkian ya bayyana cewa a shirye yake ya bunƙasa manufofin ƙasashen waje da kuma "kawo daidaito tsakanin ƙasashe."
Ya bayyana karara cewa manyan kawayen Iran su ne China da Rasha, sai dai ya jaddada cewa, "tattaunawar aminci da duniya" na cikin abin da yake son cim mawa. Tuni dai sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Anthony Blinken ya fara amfani da damar da aka samu wajen sauya murya don warware batun nukiliyar "ta hanyar diflomasiyya."
Sakamakon zaɓen Amurka wanda za a gudanar a watan Nuwamba zai kasane abin kallo. Sai dai Iran za ta iya aiki da kowane ɗan takara.
Eh mana, tsohon shugaban Amurka Donald Trump zai fi wahalar sha'ani a matsayinsa na mutumin da ba a kan doka ya fice daga yarjejeniyar nukiliya ba ta 2018, tare da iƙirarin kashe babban kwamandan Ƙurdawa Qassem Soleimani a 2020.
A kowane hali, an riga an aza harsashin gini. Tuni dai tsohon ministan harkokin wajen kasar Iran Hossein Amir-abdolahian ya shirya wata tattaunawa ta sirri da Amurkawa, tare da shiga tsakani daga kasashen Oman da Qatar. Firaministan Japan Fumio Kishida da ke tattaunawa da Pezeshkian ya kuma yi tayin shiga tsakani kan farfado da JCPOA.
A Turai kuma, Pezeshkian ya bar kofa a bude: "Ina fatan shiga tattaunawa mai ma'ana tare da kasashen Turai don daidaita dangantakarmu a kan hanya madaidaiciya." Mai yiyuwa ne ya samo bakin zaren ta hanyar kasashe irin su Ireland da Spain da suka kuduri aniyar goyon bayan Falasɗinu.
Ƙarfin haɗin kai?
Zanga-zanga ta faɗaɗa a Iran a shekaru biyu da suka gabata bayan wata matashiya Bakurɗiya Mahsa Amini ta rasu a hannun 'yan sanda. Wannan ne ya sa Kurɗawa 'yan Ahlis Sunnah yin fito na fito da gwamnatin ƙasar da Jagoran Addinin Iran.
A halin da ake ciki, asalinsa na ɗan Turkiyya, Pezeshkian na iya taimakawa wurin kwantar da tashin hankalin da ke tasowa tsakaninta da Jamhuriyar Azerbaijan. Iran ta zargi kasar Azarbaijan da ingiza ra'ayin 'yan aware a lardin Azabaijan na Iran.
Marigayi shugaban kasar Ebrahim Raissi, wanda ya mutu a hatsarin jirgin sama mai saukar ungulu, ya mutu ne a lokacin da yake kan hanyarsa ta zuwa yankin kan iyaka don sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar abota da hadin gwiwa da shugaban kasar Azabaijan, Ilham Aliyev, domin kawo karshen tashin hankalin.
Dalilin da kawo sabon tsari?
Akwai dalilai uku da suka sa Ayatollah ya fito da sabbin dabaru.
Na farko dai, 'yan bangaren masu mulki na kara nuna damuwa game da rashin shiga harkokin siyasa da karancin fitowar jama'a a zabuka. 'Yan boko suna samun ƙarfin ikonsu daga ƙarfin da suke yi na tara jama'a.
"Ya kamata ku yi iya ƙoƙarinku don ƙara yawan fitowar masu jefa ƙuri'a, ko a cikin jami'o'i, wuraren aiki, gidaje, da sauran wurare makamantansu," in ji Khamenei a wani jawabi na baya-bayan nan.
Na biyu, tasirin takunkumin na kara tasiri kan tattalin arzikin jama'a, inda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke haifar da takaici da fushi.
Wannan haka yake musamman a tsakanin matasa, na zamani da Iraniyawa masu ilimi, wadanda a lokaci guda kuma suke kalubalantar gwamnati da shugaban kasa kan tsauraran ka'idojinta. Yadda aka yi dirar mikiya domin murƙushe masu zanga-zangar bai rufe bakinsu ba.
Na uku, a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata Iran ta yi asarar manyan jami'anta na siyasa, malamai da sojoji. Kaɗan daga ciki, kisan da Amurka ta yi wa Soleimani a shekarar 2020 ya fi tasiri.
Sai dai kuma hakan ya biyo bayan harin da aka kai wa babban masanin kimiyyar nukiliyar Iran, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, kuma a baya-bayan nan a lokacin yakin Gaza, an kashe wasu manyan kwamandojin IRGC a Syria da Jordan. Bugu da kari, marigayi ministan harkokin wajen kasar Amir-Abdolahian ya mutu a hatsarin jirgin sama tare da shugaba Ebrahim Raissi.
Wadannan shugabannin sun yi ƙoƙarin farfado da hulda da kasashen Larabawa, musamman ma Saudiyya tare da taimakon kasar Sin.
Don haka, hukumomin da ke mulki sun sha kakkausar suka da yawa tare da wasu fuskantar zagon kasa a kan iyakokin Iran da ke arewa da kudanci da kuma gabashi.
