Israel tank / Photo: AP

Daga MURAT SOFUOGLU

A daidai lokacin da Isra’ila ke kara kaimin kutsawa Gaza ta kasa, masana sun yi gargadin cewa yunkurin na Isra’ila zai iya fadada yakin zuwa kasashen yankin baki daya, ko da kuwa ta yi nasarar murkushe mayakan na Hamas.

Isra’ila ta ajiye tankokin yakinta a kusa da Gaza domin hana Hamas da sauran kungiyoyin kawo kayan yaki da mayaka kasarta.

Kokarin kutsawa ta kasan ya biyo bayan kwanaki da Isra’ila ta dauka tana kai hare-haren kan mai uwa da wabi wanda ya yi sanadiyar mutuwar sama da mutum 8,000, wadanda yawancinau fararen hula ne.

Barkewar yaki a yankin baki daya zai dakile nasarar sojin da Isra’ila za ta samu a kan Hamas, in ji Omri Brinner, wanda mai bincike na kuma malami a wata cibiyar masana da ke bayar da horo a kan ilimin harkokin tsaro ta International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) da ke birnin Verona ta kasar Italiya.

“Idan ka lura da lamarin da kyau, za ka fahimci cewa duk hanyar da Isra’ila ta bi, sai ta yi sanadiyar haifar da yaki a yankin, ko da kuwa ta ci nasarar kutsawa ta kasa ta fatattaki Hamas daga Gaza ta kuma murkushe karfin sojinta.

"Kuma zai yi wahala hakan ya faru ba tare da kasashen yankin da ma kasashen duniya sun yi wa Isra’ilar bore ba,” in ji Brinner a tattaunawarsa da TRT.

Duk da cewa Isra’ila da Hamas sun sha gwabza yaki a shekara 20 da suka gabata, Isra’ila ba ta taba fitowa da karfinta baki daya domin murkushe kungiyar ta Falasdinu baki daya ba, in ji Brinner.

A shekarar 2021 Isra’ila ta kai hare-hare a Gaza a wani rikici tsakaninta da Hamas, amma bayan kwana 10 aka cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta inda kowane bangare ya yi ikirarin samun nasara.

Kungiyar Hamas, wadda take da bangaren fararen hula da bangaren soji ce da karfin iko a Gaza tun a shekarar 2007 bayan samun nasararta a zaben 2006.

Tun bayan wannan lokaci, Isra’ila ta mamaye sama da Falasdinawa miliyan biyu da ke Gaza, inda ta katse su daga sauran duniya, wanda hakan ya sa dole suka dogara da Isra’ila domin samun magunguna da wutar lantarki.

Yarjejeniyar zaman duk da ta tankiya ce da gwamnatocin Isra’ila da suka biyo baya suka cigaba da dabbakawa ta canja ne a ranar 7 ga Oktoba bayan mayakan Hamas sun kai hari mai zafi a yankunan Isra’ila, inda ta kashe sama da mutum 1,200, sannan ta yi awon gaba da sama da mutum 200.

Yanzu Isra’ila na shirin kutsawa ne ta kasa-wanda masu kare hakkin dan Adam suke gargadin zai haifar da asarar rayuka da dama- Ga wasu matsalolin da hakan zai iya haifarwa.

Hanya ta farko: Kutsawa gaba-gadi

Isra’ila tana mayar da martani mai zafi ne a kan harin ranar 7 ga Oktoba, inda har Firaministan Isra’ila Banjamin Netanyahu ya karanto wasu ayoyin littafin Baibul a wata sanarwar da ya yi da yake nuni da yiwuwar kashe dukkan mutanen Falasdinu-Ciki har da mata da kananan yara.

Amma a Gaza, inda kungiyar mayakan ta Falasdinun take, sun haka ramuka a karkashin kasa, wanda hakan ya sa kutsawar Isra’ila za ta yi wahalar gaske, in ji Abdullahi Agar, wani masanin harkokin soji a Turkiyya.

Kungiyar Hamas da wasu kungiyoyin sun horar da mayaka 40,000, wadanda kuma mafi yawansu marayu ne da sojojin Isra’ila suka kashe wa iyaye.

Dukkan wadannan mayakan na Falasdinawa a shirye suke su fuskanci sojojin Isra’ila a wannan lokacin sama da kowane lokaci na baya in ji Agar.

A yanayin yakin wanda na sunkuru ne da zai auku a tsakiyar baraguzan kauyuna yankin, Isra’ila za ta bukaci tura akalla sojoji uku ga kowane mayakin Falasdinuwa daya.

Wannan ke nufin Isra’ila na bukatar akalla sojoji 120,000 domin samun nasarar kutsawa kamar yadda Agar ya bayyana wa TRT.

“Ba wai ra’ayina ba ne, haka tsarin yakin sunkuru yake tsakanin sojojin asali da mayakan da ba a tantaance ko su waye ba.”

Isra’ila na da kusan sojoji 170,000 kamar yadda ƙididdiga ta nuna, sannan ta kira sama da sojojin ko-ta-kwana guda 300,000, wanda shi ne kira da kasar ta yi mafi girma a tarihinta.

Amma wadanda aka kira, wadanda cikin su akwai mata da matasa, wasu ma daga kasashen waje irin su Amurka, za su fuskanci ƙalubale mai girma daga mayaƙan Hamas masu karfin zuciya, in ji masanin.

Isra’ila ba za ta yi kuskuren tura dukkan sojojinta na asali zuwa Gaza ba, domin dole ta rika tunanin yankin West Bank da ta mamaye da kuma bodarta da Lebanon inda Hezbollah take ta gunagunin kisan gillar da Isra’ilar ke yi wa Falasdinawa.

Lokacin da mutane suka halarci jana’izar Falasdinawan da suka rasu a harin da Isra’ila ta kai a sansanin gudun hijira na Jenin a ranar 22 ga Oktoban 2023.

Watakila Isra’ila na da burin aika sojoji ne tare da rakiyar tankokin yaki da taimakon masu leken asiri bayan ta gajiyar da Hamas da hare-hare ta sama, in ji Brinner.

“Wannan hare-haren ana yi ne domin murkushe Hamas a yankin (hana su tara mayaka da samun kayan aiki) da kuma durkusar da karfin sojinta - aƙalla wadanda Isra’ila ke gani a matsayin barazana, musamman haka hanyoyi ta karkashin kasa, da roka-roka da su kansu makamai masu linzami."

Haka kuma Isra’ila na da burin kwato ’yan kasarta da Hamas ta yi garkuwa da su. Hamas ta yi ikirarin cewa zuwa yanzu Isra’ila ta kashe akalla 50 daga cikin wadanda ke hannunsu a hare-harensu na kan mai uwa da wabi.

Wannan hanyar “da ake gani mai kyau” na kutsawa Gaza ta kasa ya biyo bayan tunanin Isra’ilar ne cewa ba za ta “fuskanci turjiya mai karfi ba,” in ji Brinner, a lokacin da yake bayyana kasancewar kungiyar Hezbolla da take samun goyon bayan Lebanon a Arewacin Isra’ila.

“Da makamai masu linzami guda 150,000 (masu karamin zango da matsakaicin zango da dogon zango) da kuma sojoji kusan 100,000, wadanda yawancinsu ƙwararru ne da suke da ƙwarewar yaki, Hezbollah wata barazana ce babba - ta ma fi Hamas zama barazana.”

Yadda kashe fararen hula ke karuwa a Gaza, akwai yiwuwar komai ya lalace a yankin West Bank, inda rundunar tsaron Isra’ila (IDF) take fafatawa da mayaka da fararen hular Falasdinu.

“A lokacin harin Hamas na 7 ga Oktoba, kusan kashi 70 na IDF suna yankin West Bank, wanda hakan ke nuna yadda wajen ke da matukar muhimmanci ga Isra’ila,” in ji Brinner.

Haka kuma dole Isra’ila ta kawar da kai daga yadda kasashen duniya ke magana a kan yakin, musamman duba da shirin dawo da zaman lafiya a kasashen Larabawa.

“A daidai lokacin da ake cigaba da gwabza yaki tsakanin Isra’ila da Falasdinu a Gaza, mai fadin tafiyar kasar murabba’in 363, lamarin ya zo da wasu abubuwa da dama da suka girgiza duniya,” in ji Agar.

Masu zanga-zangar nuna goyon bayan Falasdinawan Gaza a Landan.

Hanya ta biyu: Kutsawa a hankali

Saboda yanayin girman hatsarin da ke akwai na kokarin kotsawa gaba-gadi, Brinner ya ce Isra'ila za ta iya, "shirya kutsawa a hankali," domin samun "nasara cikin tsanaki," a kan Hamas kafin ta kai ga shiga "yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta, wanda zai sa a sako wadanda aka yi garkuwa da su din."

"Ba na tunanin Isra'ila za ta iya murkushe Hamas da karfin tuwo ta hanyar amfani da karfin soja," in ji Brinner.

Amma watakila jagoran na Isra'ila Benjamin Natanyahu ba shi da wani zabin idan aka bukaci hakan domin yana son samun kuri'un masu ra'ayin rikau kan mamayar Yahudawa.

"A siyasar cikin gida, mutanen kasar suna so ne Firaminista Netanyahu ya kaddamar da cikakken yaki gaba-gadi, ya kutsa ta kasa. Mutanen kasar burinsu kawai IDF ta murkushe Hamas ta kwato wadanda ake garkuwa da su," in ji Brinner.

Amma duba da yanayin yakin da kuma sa bakin Amurka, wadda take kokarin kauce wa barkewar yaki a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya, Brinner ya ce, "Netanyahu ba zai iya kaddamar da cikakken yakin yunkurin kutsawa ta kasa gaba-gadi ba, sai dai a hankali da hikima."

Haka kuma wannan tsarin zai fi yin daidai a wajen Hezbollah, wadda ita ma take kokarin kauce wa fada wa yaki da Isra'ila.

Hanya ta uku: Yakin a dade ana yi

Brinner ya ce yana kuma hango yiwuwar dadewa ana gwabza yakin.

A daidai lokacin da Netanyahu yake shan rubdugu daga mutanen kasar kan zarginsa da cin hanci da da sakacin gaza kare kasar daga harin ranar 7 ga Oktoba, zai iya yin tunanin cewa yana da zabin "Ko dai ya cibaga da zama mulki ko a gidan yari," in ji Brinner.

Netanyahu ya ki daukar alhakin rashin da aka yi harin na 7 ga Oktoba, har ya ke zargin ma'aikatansa da gaza gano yunkurin Hamas na kai harin.

Firaministan mai ra'ayin rikau ya nanata cewa zai amsa tambayoyi a kan abin da ya faru ranar 7 ga Oktoba ne kawai "bayan yakin."

Wannan hakan ka nufin "zai yi duk yadda zai iya yi domin ya cigaba da zama a matsayin Firaminista," in ji Brinner.

"Kenan akwai alamar Netanyahu na shirya yakin ne na na tsawo lokaci," in ji shi.

Watakila ita ma Hamas da kawayenta a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya sun fara shirin dogon yaki, kamar yadda masanin siyasar na Isra'ila ya bayyana.

Hamas tana lissafin cewa "ko da Isra'ila ta yi nasarar tarwatsa mafi yawan karfin sojinta," za ta cigaba da wanzuwa a karkashin kasa tana yakin sunkuru, in ji shi.

"Haka kuma ya san cewa idan ya cigaba da jan kafa a yakin, akwai yiwuwar zai gajiyar da mutanen kasar ta Isra'ila, sannan zai samu taimako daga gwamnatoci da ma kungiyoyin agaji na kasashen duniya."

TRT World