Daga Esra Karataş Alpay
Ankara tana sa ido sosai kan komawar Donald Trump mulkin Fadar White House cike da kyakkyawan fata.
An samu kyakkyawar alaƙa da dangantakar sirri da ba a taba ganin irinta ba tsakanin Shugaban Turkiyya Recep Tayyip Erdogan da Donald Trump a lokacin wa'adin Trump din na farko a matsayin shugaban Amurka.
A yanzu da zai sake komawa mulki, ana fatan za a sabunta alaƙa ta hanyar tattaunawa tsakanin shugabannin kasashen ƙawancen NATOn guda biyu.
"A karkashin mulkin Joe Biden, dangantakar Amurka da Turkiyya ta yi rauni sosai," kamar yadda masanin tarihin Amurka Isil Acehan ya shaida wa TRT World.
Sai dai, tun bayan mulkin Trump na karshe yanayin dangantakar yankunan biyu ta sauya, lamarin da ya yi ta haifar da tambaboyi game da yadda ƙasashen biyu masu mabambantan muradu za su tsoma baki a rikicin da ya ƙi ci ya ƙi cinyewa.
’Riƙe ikonta a arewa'
Taimakon da Washington ke bai wa YPG, reshen ƙungiyar ta'addanci ta PKK ta Siriya, ya kasance wani babban batu mai takaddama.
Duk da amincewa da PKK a matsayin ƙungiyar ta'addanci, wadda ke da alhakin mutuwar mutum 40,000, Amurka ta jima da halatta kasancewarta a kan iyakokin Turkiyya da sunan wacce ke yaƙi da 'yan ta'addan Daesh.
A shekarar 2019, Trump ya sanar da matakin janye wasu sojojin Amurka da ke Siriya bayan wata tattaunawa ta wayar tarho da Erdogan, yanayin da ya bai wa Turkiyya damar yaƙi da ayyukan ta'addanci na PKK da YPG.
Matakin na Trump ya gamu da gagarumin suka daga jami'an Amurka.
"A ƙarshe dai, janyewar ta ɗan wani bangare ne, amma aƙalla mun ga yadda ya yi biris da masu ba shi shawara da kuma ministocinsa," in ji Acehan, wanda ke aiki a Gidauniyar Bincike ta Turkiye (TAV), yana mai cewa dangantakar Erdogan da Trump na iya sake yin tasiri a matsayin Amurka kan lamarin.
Sai dai tun daga lokacin ne al'amuran yankin suka sauya, musamman la'akari da yadda Isra'ila ke ci gaba da luguden wuta a Gaza, wanda kawo yanzu ya kashe Falasdinawa sama da mutum 43,000 tare da haifar da rashin kwanciyar hankali a ƙasashe makwabtan Turkiyya. Masana sun ce Tel Aviv na neman faɗaɗa yaƙinta.
"Burin Isra'ila na gaba na kan Lebanon, sannan Siriya," in ji Zeynep Coskun Koc, mai ba da shawara kan dabarun siyasa a MENA a fannin siyasa da harkokin waje, tana mai gargadi da cewa, shirin na iya ƙara dagula lamura a yankin da kuma dangantakar Amurka da Turkiyya.
Ta ƙara da cewa, goyon bayan da Washington ke bai wa Isra'ila mara iyaka, da kuma mamayar Yahudawa 'yan kama-wuri-zauna, ya tabbatar da ci gaba da sanya hannunta a yankin.
"Ba kawai Amurka tana da hannu dumu-dumu ba ne a cikin lamarin. Ita take gudanar da yaƙin, kuma hakan na nufin ba za su fita daga Siriya ba,'' kamar yadda Koc ya shaida wa TRT World, yana mai jaddada cewa tun daga ranar 7 ga watan Oktoba, Amurka ke bai wa Isra'ila manyan makamai.
Cire hannun Amurka zai sa Isra'ila ta rasa manyan ƙawayenta biyu a yankin: Washington da 'yan ta'addar PKK/YPG, wadanda ke ci gaba da hada kai da Isra'ila don lalata martabar yankin Turkiyya.
Tun bayan kafuwarta a shekarun 1980, PKK da Isra'ila suka ƙulla alaƙa ta ƙut da ƙut, "Wannan alakar ta ci gaba da girma kuma za ta dauwama a haka." in ji Koc.
"Isra'ila ba za ta so ta rasa ikonta a arewa (Siriya) ba yayin da take ƙoƙarin kai hari daga kudu (Lebanon)."
Mamaye sararin samaniya
Turkiyya, wadda ta kasance babbar mai ba da gudunmawa a aikin shirin tun 2007, an cire ta daga shirin a 2019 karkashin shugabancin Trump bayan shawarar da Ankara ta yanke na sayen tsarin makami mai linzami na Rasha S-400.
Washington ta yi zargin cewa tsarin na S-400 na iya yin lahani ga tsaron NATO da fasahar jiragen F-35, amma Ankara ta dage kan cewa babu wata damuwa a tsarin.
"Ra'ayin Trump na yin watsi da NATO zai iya zama mai fa'ida a cikin wannan yanayin," in ji Koc, tana mai nuni da cewa zai iya bude kofofinsa wajen barin lamarin ya faru ba tare da matsa wa Turkiyya lamba ta yi watsi da tsarin na Rasha ba.
A baya Erdogan ya bukaci a mayar da kuɗaɗen da Turkiyya ta zuba a cikin shirin na F-35 idan ba zai yiwu ba, in ji Koc.
''Ba na jin wani ya taɓa hasashen Trump zai mayar da kowane irin kuɗi ga kowace ƙasa,'' in ji ta, tana mai ba da shawarar cewa zabin Turkiyya kawai shi ne ta sake shiga cikin shirin.
"Isra'ila na da burin ci gaba da kasancewa ƙasa ɗaya tilo da ke da iko a Gabas ta Tsakiya tare da samun damar shiga shirin F-35," a cewar Koc inda ta kara da cewa "Amurka tana ba da gudunmawa sosai wajen tallafa wa tsaron Isra'ila, kuma barin Turkiyya ta shiga F-35 zai kawo cikas ga yunƙurinta."
Duk da waɗannan ƙalubalen, Turkiyya ta zama wata babbar ƙasa mai ƙarfi a fannin masana'antar tsaro, sannan ita ce ke jagorantar kasuwar jirage marasa matuki ta duniya haka kuma tana kan haɓaka jirgin yaƙi ƙirar KAAN, wanda aka tsara fitar da shi nan da shekarar 2030.
Babu wata dama sosai ga masu goyon bayan Turkiyya
Burin inganta dangantakar Amurka da Turkiyya da kuma dawowar Trump kan mulki na gabatar da kalubale da kuma damarmaki.
Masaniyar kan yankin MENA Zeynep Coskun Koc ta bayyana cewa jiga-jigan siyasar Washington, waɗanda yawancinsu masu goyon bayan Isra'ila ne kuma galibi waɗanda suke adawa da Turkiyya, ba su da wata wata dama sosai ga masu goyon bayan Turkiyya ba - yanayin da zai yi wuya ya canza a yanzu ma duba da irin tawagar masu bai wa Trump shawara da ake ran zai naɗa.
Nadin da Trump ya yi wa Mike Huckabee a matsayin jakadan Isra'ila ya jaddada wannan batu, Huckabee, ya yi ƙaurin suna wajen nuna goyon baya ga ƙasar Isra'ila a yankunan Falasdinawa da ta mamaye, a baya ya yi watsi da kalmar "mamaya" da kuma wanzuwar Falasdinu a matsayin ƙasa mai cin gashin kanta.
Trump ya kuma zabi wakillin jam'iyyar Republican Mike Waltz, wanda ya bayyana janye sojojin Amurka daga Siriya a matsayin "babban kuskure," a matsayin mai ba shi shawara kan harkokin tsaro.
Duk da haka, ko da a lokutan rikici, inda Trump ya yi barazanar lalata tattalin arzikin Turkiyya, hanyoyin sadarwa sun kasance a buɗe - lamarin da masu sharhin biyu suke ganin zai iya inganta tushen huldar diflomasiyya da dangantaka mai kyau.
Manyan masu shiga tsakani
Ƙokarin Turkiyya na iya shiga tsakani a rigingimun yanki na iya yin tasiri sosai a ƙarƙashin jagorancin Trump.
Masanin tarihin Amurka Acehan ya bayyana cewa huldar da ke tsakanin Trump da Shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin ta yi ta tangal- tangal a wa'adin mulkinsa na farko, yana mai nuni da cewa dangantakarsa da Putin da Erdogan na iya taka rawa wajen daidaita alakar Turkiyya tsakanin Washington da Moscow.
Ta ba da shawarar cewa dangantakar Trump da wadannan shugabannin na iya kara karfafa matsayin Turkiyya a matsayin mai shiga tsakani a yakin Ukraine, inda ta riga ta kulla yarjejeniyar samar da hatsi.
Erdogan, wanda ya yi maraba da nasarar da Trump ya samu a zaɓen Amurka da aka gudanar, ya nuna aniyar taka rawa wajen samar da zaman lafiya a Ukraine da Gaza. Tare da alƙawarin da Trump ya yi na kawo karshen munanan yaƙe-yaƙe.
''Turkiyya ta zama ƙasa ɗaya tilo da watakila ake dogaro da ita a yankin. Sannan tana kara zama ƙasa mai matukar muhimmaci a duniya, "in ji Acehan.
"A yayin da babu wasu manyan masu faɗa a ji a yankin, Erdogan ya zama na daban."
Batun jiragen yaƙi na F-16
Ƙwararru sun ce za a iya warware matsalar sayar da jiragen yaki na F-16 ga Turkiyya a karkashin kulawar Trump.
Majalisa a baya ta saka sharaɗin sayar da jiragen yaƙi na F-16 kan amincewar Turkiyya na saka Sweden a NATO, wanda Ankara ta amince da hakan a farkon wannan shekara. Duk da haka, yarjejeniyar ta ci gaba da kasancewa cikin rudani.
Koc ta bayar da hujjar cewa ikon da Trump ke da shi na duka Majalisar Wakilai da Majalisar Dattijai na iya buɗe wannan cikas.
Koc ta kara da cewa, "Karfafa wa ƙasashen NATO da Trump ke yi kan kashe kuɗaɗe yana taka rawar gani a wannan fanni," in ji Koc, yana mai nuni da fa'idar juna ga muradun tattalin arzikin Amurka da karfin tsaron Turkiyya.
Akwai yuwuwar samun ci gaba a dangantakar kasuwanci fiye da tsaro. Trump dan kasuwa ne a zuciya, kuma mayar da hankali kan harkokin kasuwanci na iya bude hanyoyin yin hadin gwiwa a fannin tattalin arziki, a cewar Koc.
Ko da yake hakan na iya kawo cikas ga daidaiton cinikayya ga Amurka, Koc ta lura cewa farfado da tattaunawar kasuwanci za ta karfafa alakar da ke tsakanin kasashen biyu da kuma nuna wani ci gaba.
