Daga Giorgio Cafiero
Masana kan harkokin Gabas ta Tsakiya na da ra'ayoyi mabambanta dangane da irin dangantakar da ke tsakanin Yariman Saudiyya Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) da kuma Shugaban Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ).
Wasu daga cikin masu sharhi na ganin irin rashin jituwar da ake da ita tsakanin waɗannan shugabannin biyu a halin yanzu ta yi ƙamari da hakan zai iya ja su daina ƙawance, sai dai wasu kuma na nuni da wata haɗuwa da shugabannin biyu suka yi a watan da ya gabata a gabashin Saudiyya a matsayin wata alama da ke nuna cewa babu wata matsala babba a tsakaninsu.
Sai dai ana ganin gaskiyar abin da ke faruwa ta ta'allaka ne a tsakani.
Yayin da ake ganin cewa ba lallai ne ƙawance na yanki tsakanin ƙasashen biyu ya samu tangarɗa ba - kamar yadda suka yi da Qatar a 2017 - Riyadh da Abu Dhabi na da buƙatu daban-daban da matsaya daban waɗanda hakan suke jawo wata cakwakiya.
Tun daga batun kyautata ƙawance da Isra'ila zuwa batun wasu rikice-rikice a Afirka waɗanda suka haɗa da yaƙin Sudan, buƙatun Saudiyya da Daular Larabawan ba su zo daidai ba, wanda hakan ke nufin a bayyane take kan cewa za a samu rashin jituwa a tsakani.
Haka kuma ana samun gogayya ta fannin tattalin arziƙi a tsakanin ƙasashen biyu waɗanda 'ya'yan Ƙungiyar Haɗin Kan Ƙasashen Gulf ne waɗanda duka suna da wasu muradunsu na tattalin arziƙi da suke son cimmawa.
Kyakkyawar dangantaka
A matsayinta na babbar ƙungiyar da waɗannan shugabannin biyu suke ciki, MBZ na ganin ya kamata a rinƙa nuna masa shi na daban ne, wanda hakan ne ya sa ake ganin matsalar ta fara," kamar yadda Joseph Kechichian ya bayyana, wani babban jami'i a cibiyar Sarki Faisal da ke Riyadh a wata tattaunawa da TRT World.
MBZ wani shugaba ne na yanki wanda ke son nuna tasirinsa a idon duniya. Batun yadda dangantakarsa da MBS za ta iya tasowa ne a daidai lokacin da matashin shugaban na Saudiyya mai kwarjini ke ƙoƙarin nuna ƙarfin ikonsa a matsayin shugaba mai ƙarfi na masarauta mafi girma a yankin Gulf na Larabawa wanda hakan ya rinƙa jawo ce-ce-ku-ce.
"A ƙiyasina, babbar hanyar da ya kamata a bayyana irin dangantakar da ke tsakanin ƙasashen biyu a wannan lokacin ita ce dangantaka mai ɗauke ƙawance da fargaba," in ji Aziz Alghashian, na Jami'ar Lancaster a tattaunawarsa da TRT World.
Rashin jituwa tsakanin MBS da MBZ ba ta haddasa "gaba mai tsanani" ba, kamar yadda Hussein Ibish ya bayyana, babban malami a Cibiyar Ƙasashen Larabawa na Yankin Gulf wadda ke Washington. A maimakon haka, ya bayyana dangantakarsu a matsayin dangantaka mai sauƙi wadda ke da gasa" wadda ta fi wadda "ke cike da mafarki da babakere" fiye da wadda Saudiyya da Daular Larabawan suka yi ƙoƙarin yi a 2011 a lokacin da guguwar juyin juya halin ƙasashen Larabawa ta kaɗa.
A cikin 2021, hukumomi a Riyadh sun fara buƙatar kamfanonin kasashen waje da ke zama a Saudiyya su kafa hedikwatarsu a cikin ƙasar nan da 2024.
Duk da cewa shugabancin Saudiyya ya nuna alamun yadda wannan yunƙurin yake ɗaya daga cikin matakan samun ci gaba na tsawon lokaci a tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, amma yana zama ƙalubale ga matsayar UAE a matsayin ƙasa ta yankin Gulf wadda akasarin kamfanoni na ƙasashen waje ke son kafa hedikwatarsu.
Yemen, tushen rashin jituwa
Ta ɓangaren tsarin tsaron yankin na Larabawa, Yemen ta kashe wani babban tushen jayayya tsakanin Saudiyya UAE.
Tun daga Maris ɗin 2015, Riyadh da Abu Dhabi sun jagoranci wata haɗakar sojoji wadda za ta wargaza iri nasarorin da Houthi suka samu a 2014/2015. Sai dai shekaru da dama bayan hakan, Daular Larabawan ta janye daga haɗakar bayan ta gano irin bala'in da ke tattare da ita.
A 2019, Daular Larabawan a hukumance ta janye dakarunta daga Yemen inda ta mayar da hankali wurin tasiri a kudancin Yemen ta hanyar amfani da ƙungiyoyi. Wannan ya haɗa da yadda Daular Larabawan ta goyi bayan ƙungiyoyin Yemen daban-daban irin su Southern Transitional Council, wanda hakan ya sa ta bar Saudiyyar ta rinƙa yaƙar Houthi a arewacin Yemen.
"Gaskiyar ita ce Saudiyya da Daular Larabawa duka sun shiga Yemen da manufofi daban-daban, inda suke yaƙi tare amma kan manufa daban-daban. Bayan tsawon lokaci, sai hakan ya fito fili," in ji Ibish.
Babu musu kan cewa irin waɗannan rikice-rikicen da ke tsakanin Saudiyya da Daular Larabawa a Yemen sun samar da wasu abubuwa a ƙasa waɗanda suka biya muradun Houthi da kuma Iran. Rashin daidaito tsakanin Riyadh da Abu Dhabi ya kasance wani babban dalili wanda ya taimaka wurin rage ƙarfin Presidential Leadership Council wato PLC wadda ita ce gwamnatin Yemen da aka amince da ita a humance a duniya wadda ke yaƙi da Houthi.
Kungiyar STC da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa ke daukar nauyinta na adawa da wasu da Saudiyya ke mara wa baya a Yemen wadanda suka yi imani da hadin kan Arewa da Kudu. Kamar yadda Kechichian ya bayyana, goyon bayan Abu Dhabi ga STC, wanda ke kira ga sake kafa 'yantacciyar kasar Yemen ta Kudu wadda a baya ta kasance daga 1967-90, ya haifar da "mummunan bambance-bambance" tsakanin Saudi da Daular Larabawa ta ɓangaren manufofin kasashen waje wanda hakan ya ƙara jawo rashin ci gaba a ƙasar.
Ƙasashen biyu suna tallafa wa ƙungiyoyin Yemen daban-daban waɗanda ga dukkan alamu, suna ci gaba da raba kawuna, kamar yadda Kechichian ya yi bayani. Ya ƙara da cewa Riyadh da Abu Dhabi ba su shirya ajiye bambance-bambancensu a gefe ba domin su goya wa jagoranci ɗaya baya wanda zai iya yaƙar 'yan Houthi, da kuma tabbatar da haɗin kan Yemen da kuma zuba jari a sake ginata.
Veena Ali-Khan, wata mai bincike a Yeman da yankin Tekun Farisa, ta shaida wa TRT World cewa, “Har yanzu akwai jita-jitar cewa [Daular Larabawa] na yunƙurin karɓe ikon tashar jiragen ruwa ta Aden ta hanyar Dubai Ports World. Abu mafi muhimmanci shi ne, har yanzu ana samun rarrabuwar kawuna a tsakanin dakarun kungiyar masu adawa da Houthi, tare da karuwar kiyayya tsakanin dakarun STC da na Amalika, wadanda ake zaton suna gefe guda ne. Idan aka fito a fili, manufofin Saudi da Daular Larabawa a Yemen har yanzu suna ba da gudummawa ga rarrabuwar PLC."
To sai dai kuma, har ya zuwa yanzu Riyadh da Abu Dhabi sun yi nasarar hana muradunsu da ke cin karo da juna a kasar Yamen daga rura wutar rikicin da ya barke a cikin harkokin kasashen biyu, ko da kuwa wasu masu sharhi sun shafe shekaru suna ganin kawancen Saudiyya da UAE na kara tabarbarewa.
Matsayar Saudiyya a Yemen
Mahukuntan Saudiyya za su yi la'akari da komawar yankin Yemen da ya ɓalle ko dai da ƙarfi ko kuma a hukumance a matsayin matsala, Akwai dalilai daban-daban, ciki har da cewa Riyadh ba ta yi imanin cewa za ta iya samar da isasshen tasiri a cikin kasa mai cin gashin kanta a kudancin Yemen wanda wata kila nan gaba za ta iya farfaɗowa. Sai dai hukumomi a Saudiyya za su iya kasancewa a wata mastayar ƙoƙarin ɓallewa daga kudancin Yemen.
"Ina tsammanin (Jami'an Saudiyya) za su yarda da hakan wani abin takaici ne, amma ba za su so hakan ba. Ba a cikin muradin su ba. Idan za su iya yin wani abu don tabbatar da hakan bai faru ba, za su yi,” in ji Ibish.
Sauran masana sun yarda da hakan. "Duk da dai ana hasashe, wani sabon yanayi na Kudancin Yemen zai haifar da babban kalubale ga Riyadh wanda watakila ba zai yi maraba da duk wasu dakarun 'yan aware a yankin Larabawa ba, wani abu da GCC - mai yiwuwa - ba za ta so ta gani ba," kamar yadda Kechichian ta shaida wa TRT World.
Amma idan irin wannan rarrabuwar kawuna ta faru, Riyadh za ta iya mayar da martani a hankali don guje wa ta'azzara tashin hankali wanda zai iya ci gaba da zama koma baya ga manufofin tsaro na Saudiyya.
"Ina tsammanin manyan masu mulkin Saudiyya za su tantance yadda 'yantacciyar kasar Yemen ta Kudu ke shafar zaman lafiyar kan iyakar Saudiyya," in ji Alghashian.
"Ga Saudiyya, ya bayyana a fili cewa tana son yin aiki da hankali kan waɗanda take mu'amala da su. Da wannan na ce, ba na tunanin 'yan Saudiyya haka kawai za su zauna su zura ido su bar STC su yi mulki a kudu kawai kawai ba. Don haka, idan ba a samar da kasar Yemen ta Kudu ta ba, hakan na nufin dukkan 'yan kasar Yemen din za su dawo ƙarƙashin Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa na shekaru masu zuwa," in ji shi.
Girogio Cafiero shi ne shugaban kamfanin tuntuɓa na Gulf State Analytics (@GulfStateAnalyt), wanda kamfani ne da ke zaune a Washington DC.
