Daga Hamzah Rifaat
A kwananin nan China ta gudanar da bikin tunawa da cikarta shekaru 75 da kafuwa, a Babban Zauren Taron Al'ummar China na Great Hall a Beijing. Saɓanin a shekarun da suka gabata, bikin bai yi armashi ba, wanda ke nuni da mawuyacin yanayi da ƙasar ke ciki ƙarƙashin Shugaba Xi Jinping.
A jawabinsa ga baƙin a gidan gwamnati, da jami'an jami'yar kwaminis mai mulki, Xi ya yi waiwaye kan cigaban China ta fuskar tattalin arziƙi da zamantakewa a tsawon shekaru 75 da suka gabata, yana ƙarawa da cewa babu abin da zai kawo cikas ga ƙarin samun cigaba.
Sai dai ya yi gargaɗi game da ƙalubale nan gaba, sakamakon barazana a gida da waje, da suka haɗa da hauhawar farashin kayayyakin masarufi da al'umma da tsofaffi suka fi yawa, da kuma taƙaddama kan tekun Kudancin China, tare da Philippines.
Waɗannan al'amurra na buƙatar matakai na zahiri kuma masu ɗorewa, a maimakon kome ga tarihi. Sai dai, dabarun Xi kamar sun fi karkata kan aƙidar kishin ƙasar China ne.
A jawabinsa, ya yi ta nanata batun sake haɗewar Taiwan da uwa China, da kuma farfaɗowar ƙasar China tare da "masu kishin ƙasa" a Hong Kong da Macao. Har wa yau, Xi ya buƙaci mutanen China da su zamo masu jajircewa a lokacin da ake fuskantar kalubale a gida da waje.
Abin lura a nan shi ne, idan aka yi la'akari da hulɗa mai rassa da Beijing ke da ita da tattalin arziƙin duniya, maƙalewa batutuwan kishin ƙasa a maimakon mayar da hankali kan gyaran al'amuran cikin gida, zai iya haifar da mummunan tasiri a matakin duniya, kuma ya shafi kasuwar duniya, da cinikayya da kuma zuba jari.
Ƙalubalen da ke gaba
A yanzu China ɗaya ce daga cikin tattalin arziƙi mafi girma a duniya. Ƙarfinta ya kai ba za ta yi ko gezau ba idan aka faɗa jarrabawa kamar annobar COVID-19 da yaƙin Russia da Ukraine.
Amma bayan tsawon shekaru tana samun bunƙasar tattalin arziƙi, yanzu al'amurra da dama na cakuɗe mata a lokaci guda, waɗanda ke haifar mata da tsaiko, ciki har da durƙushewar harkar gine-gine, da al'umma mai yawan tsofaffi, da kuma ƙaruwar rashin aiki tsakanin matasa.
Idan aka nausa gaba, babban ƙalubalen da Xi zai fuskanta shi ne ya zaburar da tattalin arziƙin ƙasar, wanda shi zai taimaka wajen ƙara buƙatar abokan hulɗa da kuma ƙwarin gwiwar masu zuba jari.
Yin hakan zai buƙaci sake sauyin manufa domin ƙara tallafa wa bunƙasar tattalin arziƙi.
Hakan zai iya warware ƙa'idojin kuɗi waɗanda Xi ya shimfida a 2020, domin taƙaita yawan cin bashi. Matakin ya haifar da tasgaro kan tattalin arziƙi.
Da farko, katafaren kamfanin gine-gine na cikin gida Evergrande Group ya durƙushe a shekarar 2021. Daga nan sai ɓangaren gine-gine ya yi fama da ƙaruwar rashin aikin-yi, kuma abokan hulɗarsa a cikin gida suka ragu, tare da tafiyar hawainiyar bunƙasar tattalin arziƙin duniya.
Daga nan sai aka samu ƙaruwar rashin aikin yi tsakanin matasa a shekarar 2024. Durƙushewar fannonin da a baya suke samar wa matasan China aiki, kamar fannonin kuɗi da na fasahar sadarwa ƙarƙashin Xi, ta haifar da yawaitar rashin aikin yi, kuma ta taimakawa wajen nuna takaicin matasa.
Yawanci hakan ya faru ne saboda yunƙurin shugaban ƙasa na zamar da China buwayayyiya a fannin fasaha, wanda wani muhimmin muradi, amma wanda ya raba miliyoyin matasan ƙasar China masu sana'a da sana'o'insu.
Wani batun da ke tunkarar China shi ne mai nasaba da yanayin jama'a. Ƙasar tana ta ƙoƙarin bunƙasa yawan haihuwarta a shekarun baya-bayan nan, amma manufar gwamnatin Xi ta "iyakance haihiwar yara uku" da aka ƙaddamar a 2021, ta yi mummunar rashin nasara.
Shirin yana samun koma-baya musamman a yankunan karkara na China, sakamakon matsalolin tattalin arziƙi na cikin gida, kamar tsadar rayuwa, da kasa ɗaukar ɗawainiyar neman ilimi da kuma tsadar sufuri.
Tekun Kudancin China
Tattalin arziƙin China na cikin gida shi ma yana samun koma-baya sakamakon rikici da Philippines kan atisayen soji da Philippines ɗin ke yi a Tekun Kudancin China, wanda suke taƙaddama a kai.
Duk da ba sabon batu ba ne, harkokin kasuwancin China ta ruwa a yankin ya samar da kashi 64 na jimillar cinikayyarta a 2024. Amma a yanzu yana fuskantar barazana, saboda yawaitar aikace-aikacen sojin Amurka da ƙawayenta, ciki har da Philippines.
Hakan ya bar Xi cikin ruɗani. A ɓangaren ɗaya, yana neman jaddada iƙirarin China na mallakar yankin, da kuma ƙalubalantar Amurka da ƙawayenta game da abin da China ta ce yana cikin huruminta. A ɗaya bangaren, yana neman ya ci gaba da samar da ɗorewar cinikayya duk da matsalolin tattalin arziƙi na cikin gida.
Duka waɗannan matsaya biyun kamar sun yi hannun riga da juna.
Duk da gaskiya ne a baya China ta ba da muhimmanci kan tattaunawa da Philippines, yana da alfanu Xi ya rage buɗe ido a kan gwamnatin da ke Manila. A sannan ne kaɗai za a iya maye rashin fahimta, da tattaunawar diflomasiyya domin nemo masalaha.
Muradun ƙasashen duniya
Tasirin yana da girma a wajen ƙasashen duniya, muddin Xi ya ci gaba da ba da muhimmanci kan nuna ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi, a maimakon bunƙasa shi.
Alal misali, gaza canja dokokin fannin gine-gine a matakin ƙasa, zai dakushe cinikayya tsakanin ƙasa-da-ƙasa. Har wa yau, rashin magance zaman kashe wando tsakanin matasa ta hanyar ɗaukar matakai kamar samar da ayyukan yi, zai ci gaba da dakushe ƙarfin gwiwar masu zuba jari na ƙasashen duniya a tattalin arziƙin China.
Yawaitar masu ƙaramin ƙarfi a cikin al'umma zai haifar da raguwar buƙatar kayayyakin ƙasashen waje, abin da ke ƙara matsa lamba kan tattalin arziƙin cikin gida na abokan hulɗar kasuwancin da Beijing.
Kafin China ta ƙarfafa matsayinta na jajircacciyar ƙasa mai ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi, wajibi ne gwamnatin Xi ta yi amfani da dabarun hangen nesa da ke amfani da matakai na zahiri wajen magance matsalolin da ƙasar ke fama da su a halin yanzu.
Marubucin, Hamzah Rafaat, ya samu digiri a fannin Nazarin Zaman Lafiya Da Rikici a Islamabad, Pakistan da kuma a fannin Nazarin Harkokin Duniya Da Hulɗar Diflomasiyya daga Cibiyar Horar Da Ilimin Diflomasiyya a Colombo, Sri Lanka. Hamzah har ila yau, wakilin Kudancin Asiya ne a Stimson Center a Washington, DC a 2016.
Togaciya: Ra'ayoyin da marubucin ya bayyana ba sa wakiltar ra'ayoyi, fahimta da kuma manufofin editan TRT Afrika.
