Yayin da Burtaniya ta samu sabon Firaminista, Andy Burnham a makon nan, masu
sharhin siyasa suna tattauna yadda kujerar Firaministan Burtaniya ke komawa
tamkar kujerar aski. Firaministoci 5 cikin shekaru hudu, 7 cikin shekaru 10? Tabbas
akwai wata a ƙasa.
A ƙarshen watan Yunin da ya shude ne tsohon Firaminista, Keir Starmer ya sanar
da murabus dinsa daga ofis, bayan ya kwashe watanni 24 yana gidan gwamnati na
Downing Street.
An ambato Starmer yana cewa, ya fahimci jam’iyyarsa ta yi amannar cewa "ba shi
ne ya dace ya ci gaba da jagorancinta zuwa babban zaɓen da ke tafe ba”, wato
zaben da za a iya yi kafin ko a Agustan 2029.
Tarihi ya nuna cewa cikin shekaru 10 da suka wuce, wato daga lokacin da
Birtaniya ta gudanar da zaɓen raba-gardama na ficewa daga Tarayyar Turai, zaben
Brexit a Yunin 2016, firaministoci 6 ne suka bar kujerar mulki.
Wato David Cameron a Yulin 2016, Theresa May a Yulin 2019, Boris Johnson a
Satumban 2022, Liz Truss a Oktoban 2022, Rishi Sunak a Yulin 2024, sai Keir
Starmer a Yulin 2026.
Tun bayan tafiyar Cameron, wanda ya shafe shekaru hudu yana mulki, kusan duka
firaministocin da suka biyo bayansa, ba mace ba namiji, sukan bar ofis cikin
kwatankwacin shekaru biyu, inda akwai Lisa Truss wadda ta bar mulki bayan
kwanaki 49 kacal, kai ka ce ba a yi firaministan da ya taɓa kwashe shekaru 10 a
mulki ba, wato Tony Blair.
Masu sharhi suna ta’allaka canje-canjen shugabancin gwamnatin Birtaniya a
matsayin sakamakon zaɓe na Brexit, wanda ya haifar da rashin tabbas a siyasar
ƙasar, kamar yadda wani mai sharhi kan siyasa da sadarwa, Klaus Jurgens ya faɗa
wa TRT World.
Jurgens ya ce, “Duka shuwagabannin sun fuskanci ƙalubale guda, wato samar da
nasara yayin zaɓe. Hakan ce ta faru a ‘yan makonnin nan, inda jiga-jigan jam’iyyar
Labour suka yanke cewa Keir Starmer ba zai kai su ga nasara a zaɓen da ake shirin
yi ba”.
Masana siyasa suna nuni da wasu dakakkun matsaloli, kamar na hauhawar
farashin kayayyaki, matsalar inshorar lafiya, ƙarancin samar da gidaje, tsadar
makamashi, ƙaruwar haraji, rashin ƙaruwar albashi, batun kishin muhalli, tararrabi
kan kwararar baƙi cikin kasa, da raguwar aminta da hukumomin gwamnati.
Sannan masu nazarin kimiyyar siyasa suna cewa a Birtaniya da ma yawancin
ƙasashen Turai, ana samun ƙaruwar masu tsattsauran kishin manyan turaku biyu
na siyasa, wato masu ra’ayin riƙau na far-right da masu sassaucin ra’ayi na far-left.
Game da fargaba kan samun nasarar rinjaye a zaɓe mai zuwa, masana sun yi nuni
da yadda ƙaramar Jam’iyyar Reform UK, ƙarƙashin Nigel Farage, take ta yin
shuhura a ƙuri’ar jin-ra’ayi. Da yadda Jam’iyyar Labour ke rasa mabiya da ke
rungumar ƙaramar Jam’iyyar Greens.
Wato dai, alamu na nuna daɗaɗɗen tsarin jam’iyyu biyu manya da ke karɓi-in-
karɓa wajen shugabancin Birtaniya, ya fara zuwa ƙarshe inda ƙananan jam’iyyu ke
tasowa suna kwasar magoya baya, musamman daga cikin matasa.
Misali, ƙuri’ar jin-ra’ayin jama’a ta gano cewa jam’iyyu biyar suna kusan
kankankan da juna. Jam’iyyar Reform UK tana da goyon bayan kashi 25% ,
Conservatives na da kashi 20%, Labour na da kashi 18%, The Greens kashi 15%, sai
Liberal Democrats mai kashi 14%.
Kenan dai babu jami’iyyar da ke da kashi 40% wanda a baya aka saba ganin
manyan jam’iyyu biyu na Labour da Conservatives suna samu duk zaɓe cikin
yawancin shekarun bayan Yaƙin Duniya na Biyu.
Wani abin lura kuma shi ne, matasan Burtaniya ba su ɗauki wata ƙaramar
jam’iyyar ɗaya sun tare cikinta ba, duk da cewa bincike ya nuna Greens ce ta fi
farin-jini tsakanin matasa ‘yan shekara 18-24, inda kason yakan kai har 38%.
Wannan yanayin sarƙaƙiyar lashe zaɓe ne ya sa jigajigan Jam’iyyar Labour suka
zaɓi matsa wa Starmer ya yi murabus, duk da cewa a tarihin Labour ba a taɓa
tilasta wa firaminista ya ajiye aiki.
Sai dai kuma, wadanda ba su so cire Starmer ba, suna cewa jagorantar Birtaniya
ƙalubale ne da ya ƙunshi tunkarar gagaruman batutuwan duniya kamar Donald
Trump na Amurka, Vladmir Putin na Russia, da matsananciyar suka daga gidajen
jaridu.
Yanzu dai za a jira ganin ko sabon firaminista, Andy Burnhan zai yi karkon ƙarfe ne
ko karkon kifi.
