Yaƙin da ake yi da sauyin yanayi ya kasance wani lamari da aka fi samun gazawa fiye da nasara a ciki, idan aka yi la’akari da rashin cim ma matsaya da aka yi a tattaunawar ƙarshe wadda aka gudanar gabannin taron sauyin yanayi na COP29 wanda za a gudanar a birnin Baku na Azerbaijan a watan Nuwamba.
Tattaunawar da aka gudanar tsakanin 9-12 ga watan Satumba tsakanin masu ruwa da tsaki na taron sauyin yanayin na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, ba a samu wani ci gaba sosai ba dangane da aiwatar da tsarin manufofin sauyin yanayi ba na New Collective Quantified Goa (NCQG).
Taron wanda za a gudanar a Baku daga 11 zuwa 22 ga watan Nuwamba, ana sa ran zai magance abin da ƙwararru kan sauyin yanayi ke kira da “babbar tambaya” kan yadda za a samar da kuɗin aiwatar da yarjejeniyar na ta Paris.
A cewar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, manyan manufofin yarjejeniyar da ƙasashe 196 suka amince da su a watan Disamba na shekarar 2015 sun haɗa da "dakatar da ƙaruwar yanayin zafi na duniya da tsayar da shi ƙasa da maki 2 a ma’aunin Celcius ƙasa da matakin masana’antu” tare da “ƙayyade ƙaruwar yawan zafi zuwa maki 1.5 a ma’aunin Celcius, sama da matakin masana’antu.”
Wani bincike da bangarorin Afirka suka yi ya nuna cewa, nahiyar na bukatar kuɗi domin magance sauyin yanayi sau goma kan abin da ake buƙata, adadin da ya kai dala tiriliyan 1.3 a duk shekara har zuwa shekarar 2030, domin tabbatar da cewa an kai kusa da waɗannan muradun da ake magana a kansu.
“Taron COP29 wanda ake gudanarwa a Baku shi ne na farko kuma lokaci na farko da ƙasashe masu tasowa suka fito da buƙata a lissafe na kuɗin da ake buƙata domin tallafa wa matsalar sauyin yanayi,” in ji Iskander Erzini Vernoit, daraktan wata ƙungiya ta sauyin yanayi mai suna IMAL Initiative for Climate & Development a tattaunawarsa da TRT Afrika.
Vernoit, wanda ya halarci taron sharar fagen da aka gudanar gabannin babban taron a matsayinsa na ɗaya daga cikin manyan muryoyin Afirka kan batun samar da kuɗin daƙile matsalolin sauyin yanayi wanda ke zaune a Maroko, yana fargabar wasu matsaloli na kuɗi waɗanda aka kasa magancewa za su iya ƙwace ragamar taron wanda za a gudanar a watan Nuwamba.
“Muna a jajibirin COP29, amma duk da haka ƙasashen da suka ci gaba na riƙe da wuyan sauran ɓangarori kan abubuwa da dama,” kamar yadda ya bayyana. “Sun san cewa kowane irin tayi suka yi zai iya haɗa ƙasashe masu tasowa wuri guda su yi musu ca.”
Rashin amincewa da murya ɗaya
Ana ganin ƙin amincewa da ƙasashen da suka ci gaba suka yi na saka kuɗin “asara ko lalacewa” a cikin yarjejeniyar NCQG a matsayin wani babban ƙalubale ga yarjejeniyar taron COP28 ta ɓangaren samar da irin wannan gidauniya.
“Waɗannan maganganun manyan ababen kunya ne. A taron COP na bara, kowa ya yi murna da wannan yarjejeniyar wadda aka amince da ita ta samar da gidauniya ga asara ko lalacewa. Sai dai daga baya an gano cewa ƙasashen da suka ci gaba ba su so su saka kuɗinsu a cikin wannan gidauniya,” in ji John Nordbo, wanda babban mai bayar da shawara ne kan sauyin yanayi a CARE.
“Akwai buƙatar ɗaukar matakai masu tsauri a daidai lokacin da bala’o’i ke ƙaruwa kamar wutar daji a faɗin duniya. Ƙarancin ruwa, yawan ruwa; itatuwan da ke ƙonewa; guguwar da ake samu.”
Gidauniyar ta asara da lalacewa an yi ta ne domin tallafa wa irin ƙasashen da ba su da kuɗin sake gina kansu idan aka samu irin waɗannan bala’o’in sun afku masu alaƙa da sauyin yanayi.
Liane Schalatek, wadda darakta ce a ƙungiyar Heinrich Boll da ke Washington DC, ta taƙaita irin gudunmawar da ƙasashen da suka ci gaba suka bayar zuwa yanzu a matsayin “babban abu a wani zuba jari a duniya” wanda yake a lulluɓe ba a bayyane ba.
“ A matsayinsu nawaɗanda tarihi ya shaida su ne suka gurɓata duniya, wannan ba hanya ba ce ta cika alƙawarinsu domin taimakon ƙasashe masu tasowa da al’ummomi da jama’ar da tuni suke wahala sakamakon irin bala’in tasirin sauyin yanayi,” in ji Schalatek wadda ita ma take wakiltar ɓangaren mata da jinsi.
Rebecca Thissen, jagorar bayar da shawarwari ta ƙasa da ƙasa ga CAN International, ta yi bayanin cewa kuɗin sauyin yanayi "ba batun sadaka ba ne ko kyautatawa; batu ne na alhaki da adalci, kuma tushe ne na jagorancin sauyin yanayi a tsakanin ƙasa da ƙasa”.
Rashin cimma wani tabbataccen sakamako na nufin kasashe masu tasowa suna fuskantar rashin tabbas yayin da suke tsara shirye-shiryensu na yanayi na kasa. A ra'ayin Vernoit, kasashen da suka ci gaba sun dukufa wajen ganin kasashe masu tasowa su ma sun ba da gudummawarsu wajen rage nauyin da ke wuyansu.
"COP 29 zai kasance ne game da ganin yadda kasashen da suka ci gaba ke son daukar wannan matakin kafin su karaya," kamar yadda Vernoit ya shaida wa TRT Afrika.
"Ƙasashe masu tasowa sun haɗa kansu a ƙarƙashin inuwar G77."
Aikin dala tiriliyan ɗaya
Shirin NCQG shi ne muradin da ake da shi a ƙasa bayan shekarar 2025 haka kuma magajin gidauniyar dala biliyan 100 wadda ƙasashen da suka ci gaba suka amince a duk shekara za su rinƙa bayarwa a taron Copenhagen COP wanda aka gudanar a shekarar 2009.
Bisa ga binciken kimiyya, ƙasashe masu tasowa na buƙatar aƙalla dala miliyan 400 a duk shekara domin magance asara da lalacewa sakamakon sauyin yanayi da kuma ƙarin tiriliyan 1.9 domin zuba jari ta ɓangaren makamashi.
Nasarar COP29 ta dogara ne ga shirin na NCQG wanda ya zarce dala tiriliyan 1 a duk shekara. Haka kuma dole ne shirin ya kasance ba tare da bashi ba tare da samun kuɗin ba tare da wahala ba.
Masana sun bayyana cewa shirin gaggawa game da sauyin yanayi na buƙatar kashe kuɗi na musammam, inda suka yi gargaɗi kan cewa samar da shirin samar da kuɗi mai rauni kan iya jawowa a yi watsi da buƙatar da ake da ita ta ƙayyade yanayin zafi a kan maki 1.5 a ma'aunin Celcius a matakin masana'antu.
"Lokaci ne mai muhimmanci ga samar da kuɗi ga sauyin yanayi da kuma ƙasashen da suka ci gaba su biya kuɗi domin samun ci gaba. Muna ci gaba da jin batun tattara kuɗi daga ɓangarori masu zaman kansu ba tare da wata hujja da ke nuna hakan zai taɓa zuwa ba," in ji Jeremy Anderson na ƙungiyar ma'aiktan sufuri ta tarayya.
Vernoit na da yaƙinin cewa idan ƙasashen da suka ci gaba na son mayar da taron MDD kan sauyin yanayi "taron wasa", Afirka ba za ta bari hakan ya faru ba.
"I think we would prefer to see the process halt until the developed countries get serious about their responsibilities," he says.
"Ina ganin za mu so mu ga an dakatar da shirin har sai ƙasashen da suka ci gaba sun mayar da hankali game da haƙƙin da ya rataya a wuyansu," in ji shi.
