Daga Mazhun Idris
Asusun Lamuni na Duniya, wato IMF ya fitar da sabon rahoto na ‘Hasashen Tattalin Arzikin’ kasashen duniya na shekarar 2023 da na 2024.
A cikinsa, IMF ta ayyana Nijeriya a sahun kasashe na gaba-gaba a samun bunkasar tattalin arziki, da karin kashi 3.2% a ma’aunin GDP.
Nijeriya tana rukunin sabbin kasuwanni ko masu tattalin arzikin mai tasowa, inda take ta uku, da kashi 3.2%, sai ta biyu, China da kashi 5.2%, sai kuma Indiya da ta kasance ta daya, da kashi 5.9.
Idan aka duba cikin kasashen da ke Kudu da Sahara, yankin da ake yi wa kallon yana cikin mafi karancin ci gaba, Nijeriya ta doke Afirka ta Kudu wadda ke da kashi 0.1% kacal a 2023.
TRT Afrika ta tuntubi wani mai sharhi kan tattalin arziki, Dr Yahaya Yakubu da ke Sashen Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Jami’ar Jihar Bauchi da ke Gadau.
Malamin ya ce “GDP zallar kimar abin da kasa ke samarwa lokaci zuwa lokaci kawai yake dubawa. Abubuwa daban-daban kan iya habaka masana’antu su samar da karin kayayyaki.
“Kenan, idan kasar da ke samar da kayyayaki na miliyan daya ta koma samar da na miliyan biyu, to ta samu habakar kashi 100 bisa 100.”
Da yake bayanin dalilin da ya sa IMF ta ce Nijeriya za ta wuce manyan kasashe masu karfin tattalin arziki samun ci gaba, ya ce, “abin lura a nan shi ne akwai bambanci tsakanin habakar tattalin arziki, da kuma cigaban tattalin arziki.”
Ya kuma ce, “Habaka karuwar kimar arziki ne a ma’aunin farashin kaya. Kenan kasar da ta ninka samar da kaya zuwa miliyan biyu, ta samu habaka, amma ba ta kai mai samar da miliyan goma ba, ko da kuwa mai goman ba ta samu habaka ba.”
“Shi kuwa ci gaban tattalin arziki daukakar daraja ce da takan mamaye sassa da ginshikan tattalin arziki, kamar masana’antu da fasahar kere-kere.”
Ina tasirin hauhawar farashi da rashin aikin yi a Nijeriya?
An yi wa rahoton na IMF take da “A Rocky Recovery”, wato “Farfadowa Cikin Fadi-tashi”, ya bayyana kyakkyawan fata da duniya take da shi na samun habakar tattalin arziki, duk kuwa da kalubalen da ake fuskanta a yawancin sassan duniya.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, shi ne babban jami’in tattalin arzikin na IMF, yayin gabatar da rahoton, ya bayyana cewa tattalin arzikin duniya yana farfadowa duk kuwa da kangin da bankuna suka shiga a baya-bayan nan.
Sabon rahoton ya fitar da wani jadawali na jerin sauye-sauyen farashin kayayyakin amfanin jama’a, da za a samu a wannan shekara a kasashen duniya.
Dr Yahaya ya yi mana fashin baki kan batun hauhawar farashin a Nijeriya, inda ya ce, “Kashi 18.1% shi ne sauyin farashin kaya da za a samu a Nijeriya a wannan shekara ta 2023, sabanin kashi 21.3 da aka samu a 2022”.
Ya fada wa TRT Afrika cewa, “Raguwar hauhawar farashin, wani cigaba ne ga walwalar al’umma, saboda tashin farashi yana kassara duk wani cigaba da aka samu a tattalin arziki.”
Masanin ya kara da cewa, “ana kiran ma’aunin da IMF ta yi amfani da shi, ‘Real GDP’, wato ainihin kimar kayayyaki bayan an cire tasirin tashin farashi. Kenan GDP a Nijeriya zai iya karuwa ko da akwai tashin farashi ko rashin aikin yi.”
Bayanin masanin ya nuna cewa tashin farashin kaya a Nijeriya ba zai hana habakar tattalin arzikin da IMF ta ce kasar za ta samu ba.
Tushen samun kudin-shiga na kasa
Rahoton na IMF ya kuma duba tushen da kasashe mabambanta suke samun kudaden shiga, inda Nijeriya take sahun kasashen da suka dogara da hakowa da sayar da danyen mai, don samun kudin shiga.
A kasashe masu tasowa, Nijeriyar tana cikin jerin kasashe bakwai a yankin kudu da Saharar Afirka, wandanda ke samun kaso mafi tsoka daga albarkatun man fetur.
Sauran kasashen su ne Angola, da Chadi da Jamhuriyyar Dimokradiyyar Congo da Equatorial Guinea, da Gabon, da Sudan ta Kudu.
Dr. Yahaya Yakubu ya ce, “Annobar Covid-19 ba ta shafi bangaren hakar man fetur a Nijeriya sosai ba, sannan akwai shirye-shiryen gwamnatin Nijeriya kamar na rage shigo da kayayyaki daga waje.”
“Habakar tattalin arzikin Nijeriya zai tabbata idan aka ci gaba da samun masana’antu da ‘yan kasar suke ginawa, da ma na masu zuba jari daga kasashen waje.
Sai kuma rage dalar Amurka ga ‘yan kasuwar da ke shigo da wasu kayyadaddun kayayyaki.”
Shi ma Mr Gourinchas na IMF, ya tabbatar da cewa kasashen da suke da cigaban tattalin arziki, musamman yankin masu amfani da kudin Euro, za su samu raguwar habaka saboda tabon annobar Covid-19.
Sauran dalilan su ne raguwar yawan al’umma, da kuma rarrabuwar kan kasashen a harkar tattalin arzikin yankunansu.
Hasashen ya nuna habakarsu za ta tsaya ne a kashi 0.8%. A karshe dai, yayin a duniya gaba daya, IMF ta yi hasashen ci gaban da za a samu a 2023 ya tsaya a kashi 2.8%.
Za a zura wa kasashe kamar Nijeriya ido don ganin ko hasasehn zai tabbata a gani a zahiri.
