Daga Ishaq Khalid
Wa'adin mako daya da Kungiyar Raya Tattalin Arzikin Yankin Yammacin Afirka (ECOWAS) ta bai wa jagororin juyin mulki a Nijar kan su dawo gwamnatin da tsarin mulkin kasar ya amince da ita ya cika, yayin da yankin ya fada cikin zullumi.
Kungiyar ECOWAS ta yi barazanar amfani da karfin tuwo a kan jagororin juyin mulkin, kuma su mayar da Shugaba Mohamed Bazoum zuwa karshen wa'adin a ranar Lahadi 6 ga watan Agusta.
Wa'adin ya wuce, kuma babu alamar jagoran juyin mulkin za su mika wuya, inda ECOWAS ta shiga tsaka mai wuya kan yiwuwar amfani da karfin soja.
"Akwai bukatar a yi amfani da hikima saboda hanbararren shugaban da wasu jami'ai suna ci gaba da kasancewa a hannun sojojin," kamar yadda mai sharhi kan harkokin tsaro a makwabciyar Nijar wato Nijeriya Abdullahi Yalwa ya shaida wa TRT Afrika.
Mai sharhin ya yi amannar cewa sojojin za su iya amfani da tsare hanbararren shugaban wajen cimma manufofinsu kuma amfani da karfin soji da ECOWAS da kasashen waje ke tunanin yi zai zama "mummunan bala'i."
Kungiyar ECOWAS ta damu sosai don ganin an mayar da gwamnatin da kundin tsarin mulki ya amince da ita, sai dai hanyar da za ta bi wajen cimma wannan manufa ta kasance mai sarkakiya. Daya daga cikin manyan manufofin kungiyar shi ne karfafa dimokradiyya a Yammacin Afirka da magance juyin mulki.
Juyin mulkin Nijar ya zama babban kalubale ga ECOWAS tun bayan da aka fara samun juyin mulki da dama a yankin a shekarar 2020. Kafin juyin mulkin Nijar, Mali da Burkina Faso da Guinea sun fada hannun sojoji. Wannan juyin mulkin na karshe zai kasance zakaran gwajin dafi ga karfin iko da basira da kuma dabarun ECOWAS.
'Daukar mataki mai tsauri'
Juyin mulkin ya faru ne mako biyu bayan sabon Shugaban Kungiyar ECOWAS kuma Shugaban Nijeriya Bola Tinubu ya yi gargadi kan cewa kungiyar "ba za ta zuba ido a Yammacin Afirka a rika yin juyin mulki bayan juyin mulki ba."
Martanin ECOWAS kan juyin mulkin Nijar ya bambanta da yadda ta yi lokacin sauran juyin mulkin da aka yi a yankin musamman idan aka yi la'akari da barazanar amfani da karfin soji da kungiyar ta ce za ta yi.
Lokaci na karshe da ECOWAS ta yi amfani da karfin soji wajen tabbatar da mulkin dimokradiyya shi ne a shekarar 2017.
A wannan lokacin ne aka tura dakaru Gambiya, inda suka tilasta wa Shugaba Yahya Jammeh tserewa bayan da farko ya ce ba zai sauka daga mulki ba duk da cewa ya sha kayi a zabe a hannun dan takarar 'yan hamayya Adama Barrow. Sai dai a lokacin sojoji ba su yi fito na fito ba.
ECOWAS ta kan sanya takunkumai ne idan aka samu juyin mulki a matsayin wata hanya ta tilasta dawo da kasa kan tafarkin dimokradiyya kamar yadda aka gani a Mali da Burkina Faso da kuma Guinea.
Ko da yake har yanzu babu daya daga cikin wadannan kasashe da suka koma tafarkin dimokradiyya, amma an sanya ranar yin zabuka.
Shugaban Nijeriya Bola Tinubu wanda shi ne kuma Shugaban ECOWAS ya sha alwashin "daukar mataki mai tsauari" kan wadanda suka yi juyin mulki a Nijar wanda shi ne juyin mulkin farko da aka yi a karkashin jagorancinsa a kungiyar.
An zabi hanbararren Shugaba Mohamed Bazoum ne a shekarar 2021, wanda wannan ne karon farko da wata gwamnatin farar hula ta mika wa wata ta farar hula mulki, tun bayan samun 'yancin kan kasar daga Faransa a shekarar 1960.
Ana kallon juyin mulkin a matsayin wani cikas ga dorewar mulkin dimokradiyya.
Ra'ayin jama'a
Kodayake shugabancin kungiyar ECOWAS yana so a yi amfani da karfin soji a Nijar, kan mambobin kungiyar ya rabu biyu kan batun. Rashin hadin kai a tsakaninsu babban kalubale ne, a cewar Abdullahi Yalwa.
‘’Kodayake kan mambobin ECOWAS ya rabu biyu. Wannan yana nufin ba za a iya hada karfi a wuri guda ba," in ji masani kan harkokin tsaro. Makwabtan Nijar uku: Mali da Burkina Faso da kuma Chadi sun fito fili sun ce ba sa goyon bayan amfani da karfin soja.
Chadi ba mamba ba ce a kungiyar ECOWAS amma tana da kyakkyawar alaka da kungiyar tsawon shekaru.
Mali da Burkina Faso wadanda mambobi ne a kungiyar ECOWAS kuma suna karkashin mulkin soji ne bayan juyin mulkin da aka yi, kasashen sun yi gargadin cewa idan aka yi amfani da karfin soji a kan Nijar za su dauki hakan "a matsayin ayyana yaki" a kansu su ma.
Wannan alama ce karara ta rabuwar kawuna. Kasashen biyu sun tura tawaga don nuna "goyon baya" ga jagoran juyin mulkin Nijar a ranar Litinin, kwana guda bayan wa'adin da ECOWAS ta dibar wa jagoran juyin mulkin ya cika.
Wasu na nuna fargaba kan cewa amfani da karfin soji daga bangaren ECOWAS zai iya jawo fito na fito da sojojin Nijar da kawayenta.
Da alama jagororin juyin mulkin Nijar ba sa so a shammace su. Sojojin sun sanar da rufe sararin samaniyar kasar saboda "barazanar kai musu harin soji." Kuma sun bukaci 'yan kasar da su fito kan tituna.
Sauyin salo
Abubuwa suna kara rikice wa ECOWAS, kamar yadda masana suka bayyana idan aka la'akari da rabuwar kawuna a tsakanin kasashe mambobin kungiyar.
Masanan sun kuma yi magana kan yadda jama'a a Nijar suke cewa ECOWAS tana hada kai da wasu manyan Kasashen Yamma ciki har da Faransa da Amurka. Sai dai ECOWAS ta yi watsi da wannan zargi.
Mutane da yawa ciki har da 'yan majalisar dattawan kasar, su ma sun yi magana kan batun amfani da karfin soji, sun ce idan aka yi hakan to zai yi tasiri sosai a wurare da dama ciki har da yankunan Nijeriya da ke iyaka da Nijar.
Kamar yadda Abdullahi Yalwa ya bayyana amfani da karfin soji a wannan yanayi zai zama abu mai wuya ga ECOWAS kuma hakan zai iya jawo wa yankin matsala, inda da ma ake fama da matsalar 'yan tayar da kayar baya da kungiyoyi masu rike da makamai masu alaka da Kungiyar IS da kuma 'yan al-Qaeda.
Ya ce wata kila ECOWAS ta canja salo ta fasa yin amfani da karfin tuwo. "Wata kila ECOWAS ta zama karya mai haushi amma ba ta cizo, wato ta fadi abu kuma sai a ga ta yi wani abu daban," in ji shi.
"A halin da ake ciki yanzu yiwuwar amfani karfin soji yana raguwa kuma lokaci na kurewa, saboda ba duka mambobin kasashen ne suke goyon bayan hakan ba," in ji shi.
Kodayake mai sharhi kan harkokin tsaron ya ce yana da kwarin gwiwa matakan da ECOWAS ta dauka za su yi aiki amma ba cikin sauri ba kamar yadda ake zato.
A ganinsa, jagororin juyin mulkin Nijar ba sa so a yi sulhu, hakan bai rasa nasaba da barazanar amfani da karfin soji da ECOWAS ta yi musu da kuma yadda 'yan kasar suke nuna goyon bayansu da kuma goyon bayan da suka samu daga Mali da Burkina, har ila yau da goyon bayan wasu kasashen ketare.
Tawagar ECOWAS karkashin jagorancin tsohon Shugaban Nijeriya Abdulsalami Abubakar ta je Yammai a ranar Alhamis, sai dai ba ta gana da hanbararren Shugaba Mohamed Bazoum ko kuma jagoran juyin mulkin Janar Abdourahamane Tchiani ba.
Ana kallon hakan a matsayin nuna kin son tattaunawa daga bangaren sojojin da suka yi juyin mulkin.
Za a sake wani babban taro
Kamar yadda aka gani a wasu juyin mulki na baya, batun Nijar zai dauki watanni masu yawa ko lokaci mai tsawo kafin a warware amma tattauna ita ce kadai mafita, kamar yadda Abdullahi Yalwa ya yi amanna.
"Amfani da karfin soja ba zai haifar da da mai ido ba. Ko da an yi amfani da karfi, sai an tattauna a karshe," in ji Abdullahi Yalwa.
Masanin kan harkokin tsaro ya ce ya yi amannar cewa ECOWAS za ta iya magance matsalar juyin mulkin Nijar ta "hanyar shigo da kowane bangare," inda ya shawarci duka masu ruwa da tsaki da su sanya kishin Nijar a zukatansu.
Kodayake abu ne mai wahala yanzu jagororin juyin mulkin su bayar da amincewarsu bayan barazanar da aka yi musu ta farko.
Dawo da gwamnatin Bazoum kan mulki abu ne mai wuya amma kuma mai yiwuwa, kamar yadda masanin ya ce. ECOWAS ta ce amfani da karfin soji zai kasance "mataki na karshe" ko da kuwa an nuna cewa manyan hafsoshin sojin kasashe mambobi sun kammala shirin aikawa da dakaru idan ta kama.
Kungiyar ECOWAS ta kira wani babban taro ranar Alhamis, 10 ga watan Agusta, don tattauna batun kuma ta dauki matakai na gaba.
A halin da ake ciki komai zai iya canjawa, an zuba ido ga ECOWAS don ganin yadda za ta lalubo hanyar dawo da mulkin dimokuradiyya a Nijar da yadda kuma za ta kiyaye faruwar hakan a wasu kasashe.
Masana sun gargadi cewa yayin da kungiyar ECOWAS da masu da tsaki a Nijar suke kokarin samar da mafita, ci gaba da shigo da manyan kasashen duniya masu muradun tattalin da na soji a yankin Sahel zai kara bata al'amura ne. Idan hakan ya faru "mutanen Nijar ne abin zai fi shafa," in ji Abdullahi Yalwa.
