Daga Mazhun Idris
An shiga mako na biyu tun faduwar gwamnatin dimokuradiyya a kasar Nijar, bayan da sojoji suka kifar da gwamnatin Shugaba Mohamed Bazoum.
Kasashen duniya suna goyon bayan Kungiyar Raya Tattalin Arzikin Kasashen Yammacin Afirka ECOWAS, don daukar matakin da zai iya hadawa da amfani da karfi don kawar da gwamnatin sojin.
Shugabannin kasashen ECOWAS sun yi taron gaggawa a Abuja, babban birnin Nijeriya. Sun fitar da sanawar da ta yi kira da a dawo da halastacciyar gwamnati a Nijar. Sannan idan sojin kasar suka yi kunnen-kashi, ta yi gargadin yiwuwar amfani da karfi.
Yayin da shugabannin ECOWAS suke dakon ganin ko takunkumin da suka kakaba wa Nijar zai janyo sojin kasar su karaya ko kuma su harzuka, an umarci shugabannin rundunonin soji na ECOWAS su hadu don fitar da hanyar shawo kan lamarin.
Sai dai baya ga wannan alamu na hadin kai don ceto dimokuradiyya a Nijar, ba komai ne yake tafiya yadda ake bukata ba.
Makwabtan kasashe karkashin mulkin soji
A wani yanayi da ake wa kallon cikas ga yunkurin diflomasiyya daga ECOWAS, shugabannin mulkin soji a kasashen Mali da Burkina Faso, wadanda makwabta ne ga Nijar, sun yi gargadi game da tunanin amfani da karfin soji kan kasar ta Nijar.
Dr Kabir Adamu, wani masanin harkar tsaro da leken asiri ne wanda yake nazari kan yankin Yammacin Afirka, kuma babban manajan kamfanin Beacon Consulting, yana ganin wannan barazana da cewa tana da rauni.
Ya fada wa TRT Afrika cewa, "Sanarwar ta Burkina Faso da Mali ba ta bayar da mamaki ba, saboda kasashen suna karkashi mulkin soji kuma suna fuskantar wariya irin wadda Nijar ke fuskanta a yanzu. Ba sabon abu ba ne su kafa gamayya sakamakon wannan hargitsi."
Amma a hakika, me ya janyo wadannan kasashe suke jin cewa wuyansu ya yi kwari. har suke neman kalubalantar kungiyar ta ECOWAS?
Dr Joseph Ochogwu, shi ne shugaban cibiyar nazarin zaman lafiya ta 'Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution' a Abuja, Nijeria. Ya ce yana ganin, "Akwai wasu daga kasashen waje da suke mara musu baya, kamar kamfanin kwangilar tsaro na Rasha, wato 'Wagner Group' da suke dagula lamura a yankin na Sahel."
Ya fada wa TRT Afrika, "Gwamnatocin Mali da Burkina suna cikin tsaka-mai-wuya kuma ba su da takamaimiyar mafita. Abin da ya rage musu shi ne su nemi abokan da za su mara musu baya don ci gaba da jagorantar kasashensu da neman farin jini irin na yaki da sabon salon mulkin mallaka."
Shi ma Dr Adamu ya yi shigen wannan bayani, "Sojojin da ke mulki a Mali da Burkina Faso yawanci suna dogara ne kan alakarsu ta yanzu da kamfanin samar da tsaro na Rasha. Wannan na faruwa ne duk da cewa rabin kasashensu suna karkashin ikon 'yan tawaye ko 'yan ta'adda."
Guguwar sauyin siyasa
A shekarun baya-bayan nan, yankin Yammacin Afirka ya fuskanci juyin mulkin soji da dama. An kifar da gwamnati a Mali a watan Agustan 2020, sai aka kuma yi a watan Mayun 2021. Sannan a Guinea aka yi a watan Satumban 2021, sai kuma a Burkina Faso a watan Janairun wannan shekara.
A kokarin kawar da ci gaba da yiwuwar yaduwar juyin mulki a yankin, ECOWAS ta saka takunkumin cinikayya da hada-hadar kudi kan gwamnatocin sojin.
A watan Yuli na 2022 ECOWAS ta janye takunkumin kan Mali, bayan ta amince da shirin gwamnatin sojin kasar na gudanar da zabe a watan Fabrairu na 2024.
Dr Adamu ya ja hankali kan cewa yankin ECOWAS yana fuskantar fadawa cikin matsanancin yanayi na siyasa, wanda kasashen Yamma za su fafata da Rasha.
Ya ce, "Za mu ci gaba da ganin wadannan manyan kasashe suna amfani da diflomasiyyar tattalin arziki da tsaro don neman gindin zama, a siyasa da tattalin arzikin yankin. Afirka tana bukatar yakar sabon salon mallake arzikinta da manyan kasashen duniya ke neman yi a yanzu.’’
Za a iya cewa kalubale kamar jagororin juyin mulki a Nijar, da zanga-zangar nuna goyon baya ga kifar da gwamnatin farar hula din, gami da alamun nuna adawa da yunkurin ECOWAS, sun samo asali ne daga yadda kungiyar ta ware Nijar kadai a yunkurin kawar da mulkin soji don maido da dimokuradiyya.
Duk da cewa ECOWAS ta kakaba wa Mali, da Burkina Faso, da Guinea takunkumi, kungiyar ba ta yi amfani da karfi wajen dawo da zababbun shugabannin da aka hambare ba.
Kalubalen amfani da karfi
A yayin da ECOWAS ke kausasa magana kan kare dimukradiyya, da kawar da ayyukan tashin-tashina a yankin Afirka ta Yamma, wasu masana suna ganin akwai bukatar amfani da diflomasiyya, kafin amfani da karfi, saboda matsalar da kai hari Nijar za ta haifar.
Masu sharhi sun yi kashedin cewa akwai yiwuwar faruwar matsaloli matukar aka far ma kasar ta Nijar, wadanda suka hada da cutuwar jama'a. Ganin rahotannin kan masu goyon bayan sojin da suka kifar da gwamnatin wadanda suka yi zanga-zanga a birnin Yamai.
Dr Adamu ya yi bayanin cewa, “A yanzu sojin Nijar suna ribatar mararin 'yan kasar Nijar masu adawa da kasar Faransa, kuma sojin suna ruruta wannan adawa don haifar da kiyayya kan yunkurin ECOWAS na saka baki a kasarsu."
Ya ce, "Wannan salo zai iya janyo babbar matsala idan 'yan kasar Nijar suka juyawa ECOWAS baya, a yunkurinta na kare dimokuradiyya a kasar. Idan suka fara kallon yunkurin kungiyar a matsayin katsalandan. Zai yi wahala a iya magance wannan."
Bukatar yin kaffa-kaffa
Masana sun bayar da shawarar cewa ECOWAS ta yi takatsantsan matukar tana burin kawar da guguwar juyin mulki a yankin, musamman don kar su rasa karfin doka, da goyon bayan jama'a.
Amma kamar yadda Dr Ochogwu ya nuna, matsalar za ta iya munana. Ya ce, "Abin takaici ne yankin ECOWAS yana fuskantar juyin mulkin soji, masu karan-tsaye ga dimokuradiyya, — a Mali, da Chadi, da kuma yanzu a Nijar. Wannan batu ba zai haifar da da mai ido ba ga nahiyar Afirka."
Ya bayar da shawarar yin amfani da salon diflomasiyya don shawo kan wadannan kalubale, da suke fuskantar yankin wanda da ma yana da tarin matsaloli daban-daban.
Ya kara da cewa, "An karya yawancin tsare-tsaren mulki nagari a Tarayyar Afirka da na ECOWAS. Shugabannin siyasa suna yin karan-tsaye ga tsarin dimokuradiyya da shugabanci nagari da adalci da magance fitinu."
Babban abin da ya wajaba ga ECOWAS shi ne ta bi hanyoyin samun goyon bayan diflomasiyya, da na tarin al'ummar kasar ta Nijar.
Amma kafin wannan ya faru, Dr Ochogwu ya bayar da shawarar cewa sai kungiyar ta mayar da hankali kan isar da sakonnin manufofinta, don ka da 'yan farfaganda su yi rinjaye a fagen tattaunawa da ke gudana a cikin al'umma.
