By Coletta Wanjohi
An estimated 90,000-odd Sudanese are currently sheltered in Ethiopia, having crossed the border in batches since fierce fighting broke out between their nation's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April last year. The majority of these refugees are staying in camps.
More Sudanese are expected to seek refuge as mediation efforts by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to broker a peace deal between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese transitional administration, and RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo have hit a roadblock.
Sudan recently announced its decision to suspend its IGAD membership, a regional bloc of eight countries, and stay away from the January 18 extraordinary summit of heads of state of member countries in Kampala.
The exit from the regional bloc came after the transitional administration accused IGAD of putting the Sudan conflict on the agenda without consulting it.
Besides Sudan, IGAD includes Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea and Uganda.
"IGAD played a crucial role in the mediation process, supported by Sudanese civilians and various political groups. Now that Sudan has turned its back on the bloc, we are starting at a possible derailment of the process and a delayed return to a transitional civilian government," Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a former spokesperson for IGAD, tells TRT Afrika.
The IGAD summit last week gave the warring generals 14 days to meet face-to-face to de-escalate the situation, which has further offended Sudan.
"Sudan boycotted the summit, and the final communique of the meeting included language that Sudan deemed disrespectful to its sovereignty and offensive to the families of victims of atrocities committed by rebel militias," the Sudanese administration said in a statement.
In their December 2023 summit, IGAD heads of state received assurance from al-Burhan and Dagalo that they would meet to work on a peace deal.
Humanitarian crisis
Sudan's recent actions have led to fears that the fighting could escalate, heaping more misery on citizens and prompting a fresh exodus.
According to the UN, over 7.6 million people have been displaced since the fighting started on April 15 last year. That number is now increasing rapidly. "The number of people displaced in Sudan increased by about 19,600 over the past week," the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on January 21.
The war is also taking its toll on Sudan's neighbours. "The conflict has led to a major humanitarian crisis in eastern Chad, where almost half a million people have found refuge, alongside already vulnerable local communities and thousands of other Sudanese refugees who have been in the country for two decades," says Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).
In the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, only a handful of hospitals are currently operational, and the prices of essential medicines continue to soar.
The conflict has also made it hard for aid agencies to reach out to people, especially in areas over which RSF has control.
Grim prognosis
On June 6, 2019, Sudan was suspended from the African Union "until the effective establishment of a civilian-led transitional authority".
While the transitional government announced that general elections would be held in 2024, polls look like a far-fetched idea now, more so after the country's exit from IGAD.
Some experts say external interests may be affecting the peace process in Sudan and that the leadership of both IGAD and AU appear to be having a tough time in handling the conflict.
Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairperson of the African Union Commission, has appointed a three-member committee to initiate efforts to end the current political and military impasse. The members' brief is to work with all Sudanese stakeholders and regional and global actors, including IGAD, the UN and the League of Arab States.
Some analysts say Sudan distancing itself from IGAD is a mistake, leading to the isolation of Gen al-Burhan and his country.
Others see it as a test of patience for the regional bloc, which suffered another blow after Ethiopia refused to attend the January 18 summit in Kampala because of its conflict with Somalia. The trigger for the row was Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland to lease 20km of coastline in exchange for recognising its sovereignty.
For the sake of the seven million Sudanese forced to leave home and millions of others living on the edge, IGAD can't afford to fail.
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