By Coletta Wanjohi
The debilitating battle of attrition between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023 has continued into the New Year, with Sudan recalling its ambassador to Kenya over the reception accorded to paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
While Kenya has clarified that the meeting between President William Ruto and Dagalo on January 3 was meant to help foster enduring peace in Sudan, the current transitional administration construes it as a slight.
The latest diplomatic misfire since Dagalo embarked on a selective international outreach comes against the backdrop of over 12,000 people being killed and 33,000-odd wounded in the conflict. According to the UN, 6.6 million citizens have been displaced.
A year of agony
When 2023 began, little did the Sudanese population know their country would be engulfed in conflict within four months.
Ironically, the two parties that had worked together in 2019 to oust Omar al-Bashir as President were at the epicentre of the conflict.
Fighting broke out on April 15 between the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Dagalo's RSF.
The outbreak of violence instantly eroded hope of Sudan transitioning to a democratically elected government in two years, based on a December 2022 deal between the military and political parties.
Since then, a humanitarian catastrophe has continued to unfold in Sudan, Africa's third-largest country with a population of 48 million people.
The UN says that half of these people need urgent humanitarian assistance because of the ongoing conflict.
As of December 2023, over 6.6 million people have been displaced inside and outside the country. Neighbouring Chad, Egypt and South Sudan have had to share the burden of offering sanctuary to Sudanese fleeing the war.
The warring generals on either side have not made any headway in ending the fighting, even as the situation goes from bad to worse. Efforts at mediation between the two have not borne fruit either.
"Both the Sudanese army and the RSF wield a lot of military power and feel they can solve their problems on the battlefield," Dr Edward Githua, an expert in international relations, tells TRT Afrika.
As the conflict rages, so does food insecurity, exacerbated by millions of farmers' inability to engage in agricultural production.
“Around 17.7 million people across Sudan, accounting for 37% of the analysed population, face high levels of food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024," the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) says in its latest report.
"The most acutely food-insecure populations are located in states affected by high levels of organised violence, including Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and Khartoum – especially in the tri-city area of Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman," the report states.
The FAO report also mentions widespread looting of markets, banks, industries, and public buildings.
Need to look inward
The African Union (AU) insists that a Sudanese-led initiative is the only way out of the impasse.
At the 41st Summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), of which Sudan is a member, the emphasis had been on "a unified Africa-anchored mediation process". The warring factions assured the regional body they would give dialogue a chance.
General al-Burhan committed to "an unconditional ceasefire" and resolution of the conflict through political dialogue, including a one-to-one meeting with the RSF commander facilitated by IGAD. Dagalo is said to have accepted the proposal.
The onus is now on IGAD to fast-track an all-inclusive Sudanese-led dialogue that will lead to the formation of a civilian-led transitional administration and, later, democratic elections.
But will the generals honour these commitments? So far, there has been little progress on this score.
"One thing is clear: the people of Sudan want a transition to civilian rule," the UN's former special envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, explains to TRT Afrika.
Sanctions have not had any impact. In June last year, the US imposed sanctions on companies it accused of fuelling the conflict in Sudan, two of them reportedly owned by RSF commander Dagalo and his brothers.
In September, the US clamped sanctions on former Sudanese foreign minister Ali Karti and two companies accused of playing a role in undermining the country's peace, security and stability.
Later that month, it announced sanctions against RSF deputy leader Abdelrahim Dagalo over human rights abuses.
"The international community will need to be firmer. That is the only way. Accommodating them (the warring sides), as they did in the past, hasn't worked. It's time for a new approach," says Benomar.
Darfur dampens mood
As the continent awaits a breakthrough in Sudan, concern over RSF's reluctance to relinquish territories lingers.
While the capital city of Khartoum has been the main battleground for the two sides, fighting has lately intensified in the Darfur region, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED.
Amani Africa, a pan-African think tank, warns that if the insecurity in Sudan isn't quelled, it will have profound security implications for the region.
Among other dangers, the vacuum that it creates would make it possible for terrorist groups to enter the fray, besides aiding the emergence of organised crime such as arms trafficking and illegal exploitation of natural resources.
All eyes are now on al-Burhan and RSF chief Dagalo to see if they walk the talk in the New Year.
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