By Mazhun Idris
The initial bemusement at the sight of some protesters holding Russian flags during demonstrations against hyperinflation in Nigeria has made way for a sense of alarm over what wary analysts see as a worrying trend.
The mass, youth-led protests that erupted on August 1 in the West African nation, roiled by spiralling cost of living since the rollback of fuel subsidy last year, have been marked by the surprising appearance of the Russian flag at multiple such gatherings.
So, what does Russia have to do with the Nigerian citizenry's general sense of disenchantment over governance in the face of economic hardship and insecurity?
While some dismiss the development as the handiwork of youth besotted with anti-Western sentiment, another school of thought is that this could be a facade for Russian "propaganda mercenaries".
Either way, say analysts, Nigeria's economy is beset with enough problems not to need a Russian element to deal with.
"It is apparent that people are angry with Western neoliberal policies such as removing subsidies and moving currencies to floating rates, as recommended to Nigeria by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank," Hassan L. Abubakar, a sociologist at the Kaduna State University in northwest Nigeria, tells TRT Afrika.
Barrister Sani Gwale in Kano state, where the Russian flag featured more prominently in the agitation than at other locations, thinks some young protesters might believe that "unfurling foreign flags is part of their right of expression".
The caveat is that the government could see it as a threat of sedition and a breach of the Nigeria Flag and Coat of Arms Act.
Although the protest theme has been #EndBadGovernance, the core of the public outrage is the withdrawal of government subsidies on petroleum products, resulting in soaring pump prices and an overall spike in living expenses.
In some states, the demonstrations have turned violent, leading to deaths and destruction of public and private properties.
Official response
President Bola Tinubu has called for a dialogue with the protest organisers alongside what appears to be a behind-the-scenes crackdown on those dragging a foreign flag into a domestic issue.
On August 5, Nigeria's secret police, the DSS, issued a statement announcing the arrest of some tailors in Kano State allegedly responsible for sewing and distributing the flags.
Police also announced that they had arrested dozens of people in connection waving Russian flags.
Nigerian military authorities, too, condemned the provocative waving of foreign flags, terming it as "kids being pushed into treasonous conduct".
For its part, the Russian Embassy in Nigeria denied involvement in "the use of the official symbols of the Russian Federation by protesters".
Pledging non-interference in the domestic affairs of Nigeria, the embassy put out a statement on its official website, saying the decision of some protesters to wave Russian flags was "their personal choice", independent of any official Russian agency.
Means of provocation
Chiroma Hantsi, a resident of Abuja recalls overhearing people in some areas before the agitation started, who were planning to use Russian flags and President Vladimir Putin's name.
"They said that for the protest to attract the international community's attention, they would need to replicate what happened in neighbouring Niger," he tells TRT Afrika.
Kaduna and Kano, the commercial nerve centre and heartbeat of the northern geopolitical region, witnessed similar scenes. Videos circulating on social media showed tailors busy stitching Russian flags.
Observers differ on what may have pushed people into this controversial move. During previous demonstrations, such as the 2020 #EndSARS protests against alleged police brutality, only the Nigerian flag fluttered proudly.
Anti-Western sentiment
Abubakar sees the waving of Russian flags by some protesters as being influenced by growing anti-Western sentiments across West Africa.
"Some protesters view Russia, with its anti-Western stance, as a safe counterbalance and a potential saviour," he says. "However, like the West, Russia is primarily motivated by its interests."
In May, a group of about five civil organisations issued a warning against the Nigerian government’s rumoured plan to sign a military pact with the US and France, entailing the redeployment of troops expelled from the Sahel states.
The open letter was issued by a group that included a former chairperson of Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission. The group specifically cautioned President Tinubu and the National Assembly from allowing Western boots on Nigerian soil.
As a former British colony, Nigeria is seen as having strong diplomatic and trade ties with the UK, the US, and France.
Sahelian adventures
While many Nigerians fear Western influence on their country's internal affairs, Russia is gaining popularity with populist elements, echoing the realities of the Sahel region in the last few years.
In the aftermath of a series of coups d’état in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea, some have celebrated this as freedom from French and Western neocolonial shackles, decades after seeing off colonial rule.
Sahelian countries have received military and economic support from Russia, prompting them to revoke military accords with France and the US, and shunt out Western military personnel from their lands.
Russia's military presence in neighbouring West African countries is among the reasons Abubakar highlights to explain how a section of Nigerians perceives the flag controversy.
Nigeria has been battling violent conflicts, including a two-decade-long insurgency. It doesn't surprise many analysts that the conflict-imbued northern region would be open to discreet Russian influence.
Another view is that the regional bloc ECOWAS, headed by President Tinubu, is seen as being weakened after it was forced to rescind its threat to invade Niger and reinstate the country's ousted elected leadership after the coup in July 2023.
As new global powers continue to emerge, an ace in the game plan is to break and supplant Western countries' centuries-long grip on the African continent.
Another sign of Africa becoming an expanded stage for bipolar wars is the recent admission of two more African countries into the BRICS – Egypt and Ethiopia. This has happened under Russia's leadership of the economic bloc, starting in January this year.
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