By Ishaq Khalid
The one-week ultimatum given to Niger's coup leaders by the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, to restore constitutional order has expired with the coup's thick clouds still hanging over the region.
The regional bloc had threatened to use force against the coup leaders and to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum if the junta failed to relinquish power by the end of the ultimatum on Sunday August 6.
The deadline has passed, the junta appears unwilling to budge and ECOWAS seems to be in a dilemma on the idea of using military force.
‘’There is the need to use wisdom because the deposed president and some officials are still being held by the junta,’’ Abdullahi Yalwa, a security analyst in neighbouring Nigeria told TRT Afrika.
Yalwa believes the military rulers could use the detained president as a bargaining chip and that use of military force by ECOWAS or any external body could be ‘’disastrous.’’
ECOWAS is obviously keen on restoring constitutional order but how it will exactly pursue this goal remains tricky. One of its key principles is upholding democracy in West Africa and tackling military coups.
The Niger coup is perhaps the most trying military takeover for the regional body since a new wave of coups started in the region in 2020.
Before Niger coup, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea had fallen to military rulers. The latest coup is a litmus test for the group's power, ability and skills as well as strategies.
'Forceful and resolute'
The putsch happened just more than two weeks after ECOWAS new chairman and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu warned that the regional body ‘’will not allow coup after coup in West Africa.’’
Its response to Niger’s coup is different compared with previous coups in the region especially as regards to the threat of military intervention.
The last time ECOWAS used military intervention to enforce democracy was in 2017.
That was when it deployed troops to The Gambia forcing then-President Yahya Jammeh to flee after he initially suggested he would not relinquish power despite losing an election to opposition candidate Adama Barrow. There was no actual military confrontation in that case.
When it comes to coups the body usually imposes sanctions as a means of ensuring a return to democracy as seen in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.
None of these countries has actually transited back to democratic rule yet, although they have set timetables for elections.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is also the Chairman of ECOWAS, had vowed to be ''resolute'' and ''forceful'' on the Niger coup which is the first to happen under his watch as the boss of the regional body.
The deposed President Mohamed Bazoum was elected in 2021 marking the country's first-ever transition from one democratically elected government to another since its independence from France in 1960. The coup is seen as a dent on that milestone.
Public sentiments
Although the ECOWAS leadership would want military intervention in Niger, member countries are clearly divided on the issue. This lack of unity is a huge challenge, according to Yalwa.
‘’Even the ECOWAS family is divided. This means there will be no formidable force,’’ the security expert says.
Three of Niger's neighbours, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad have already made it clear that they would not support any military intervention. Chad is not a member of ECOWAS but it has good relationship with the bloc over the years.
Mali and Burkina, which are members of the regional bloc and also under military rule following coups, have gone further to warn that any military force against Niger would be considered a ''declaration of war'' against them too.
This is the clearest sign of division. The two countries have sent a delegation to ‘’show solidarity’’ with Niger’s junta on Monday, a day after the ECOWAS ultimatum to the junta elapsed.
Some fear, any deployment of troops by ECOWAS could lead to a military confrontation with Niger's forces and their allies.
The junta in Niger appears not to be taking chances too. They announced a closure of airspace over the ‘’military intervention threat.’’ They have also mobilised masses to take to the streets.
Strategy change
The situation is increasingly becoming elusive for ECOWAS, according to experts given the deep division among member countries.
They also point to the public sentiment in Niger that suggests the bloc is aligning with some Western powers including France and the United States. ECOWAS was quick to reject these insinuations.
Many, including Nigerian senators, also point out that an ECOWAS military intervention, if it happens, could have a wider implication in the region affecting Niger's neighbours including Nigeria.
According to Abdullahi Yalwa, using force in the current atmosphere might be very difficult for ECOWAS and counter-productive for the wider region already grappling with devastating insurgencies by armed groups linked to IS and al-Qaeda.
He says the bloc might change its strategy by ditching the idea of force. ‘’ECOWAS may end up being a toothless bulldog, saying something and doing something else,’’ he says.
‘’As it is the chances of military intervention are late and slimmer, because not all individual member countries support the military intervention,’’ he adds.
The security analyst is however, optimistic that efforts by the regional body could pay off but not as quickly as it might hope.
In his view, the military junta in Niger were not currently open to dialogue, partly infuriated by ECOWAS threat of using force and also emboldened by some support from the masses and regional allies like Mali and Burkina Faso as well as possible backing by some foreign elements.
An ECOWAS delegation led by former Nigerian head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar had travelled to Niamey on Thursday but failed to see either the detained President Mohamed Bazoum or the junta leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani. That was seen a sign of unwillingness to dialogue on the part of the junta.
Another summit
As seen in previous coups in the region, the Niger situation could take several months or longer to be resolved but that dialogue will ultimately be the way out, Abdullahi Yalwa believes.
‘’The military intervention will not yield the desired result. Even if force is used, dialogue will be the end,’’ Yalwa points out.
The security analyst believes ECOWAS could reverse the coup in Niger with ‘’an all-inclusive approach,’’ suggesting that all stakeholders should put the interest of Niger at heart.
However, winning the trust of the junta after a threat against it is a huge task. ‘’Reversing the coup is something very difficult but also possible,’’ he says.
ECOWAS had said that the use of force would be ''the last resort'' even though it indicated that military chiefs from member-countries had finalised plans to deploy troops if necessary.
The regional body has convened another summit on Thursday August 10, to discuss the matter and take further decisions.
With the situation still fluid, all eyes are on ECOWAS to see how it will move on with its plans to restore democracy in Niger and whether in the long-run it could avert similar situations in other countries.
Experts warn that as the regional body and stakeholders within Niger try to find a solution, continued involvement of world powers with economic and military interests in the Sahel could further complicate the situation. In this case, ‘’the people of Niger will be the victims,’’ Yalwa cautions.
