With 2024 being dubbed the year of elections across the world, Türkiye has just concluded local mayoral elections across its 81 provinces – the result of which is itself a testimony to the country’s commitment to holding free and fair elections, analysts say.
As the opposition CHP appeared to have earned electoral dividends, leading in 15 out of 30 major metropolitan cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, the vote marks the third-ranked election in the country, which many experts say helps political parties gauge local opinion but also does not alter the existing political configurations in the country.
According to Istanbul-based political analyst Onur Erim, elections in general are a festive occasion for Turks as the exercise has become extremely safe compared to the decades before President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power.
“You no longer get pressured to vote for one party or the other. There was a time when the PKK terrorist organisation [in some provinces] dictated the outcome of the elections 15-20 years ago. That does not happen anymore,” Erim tells TRT World.
The unofficial outcome of the election, which shows the CHP gaining a decisive lead in big cities despite the AK Party leading in 366 districts while the CHP trails with 333 at the time of writing this article, debunks the so-called narratives shaped by Western media that Turkish elections have lost their credibility under Erdogan’s governance.
'Türkiye is a vibrant democracy'
“A lot of people, Türkiye specialists, who usually bash Türkiye calling it authoritarian, I think this election proves them wrong. The main message sent to international opinion is that Türkiye is a vibrant democracy. The 70 percent voter turnout is massive. In Europe, local election turnouts are not more than 30 percent,” says Tarek Cherkaoui, a regional analyst and manager of TRT World Research Centre.
“Secondly, it is going to be business as usual. The president is there. He has a vision for the country. His century of the Türkiye vision is still there."
Since the early 2000s, Erdogan and his AK Party have won one election after another - sweeping districts, cities, and provinces on the back of Erdogan’s legacy as a hard taskmaster who gave a facelift to Istanbul when he first shot to fame as the city’s mayor in 1994.
In 2023, after Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes in February, critics were quick to question Erdogan's popularity. Much of the Western media mooted a perception that the AK Party’s legacy will be buried under the rubble. But again, three months later, Erdogan proved his naysayers wrong by clinching a victory.
Before the March 31 local elections, once again Erdogan critics peddled the same narrative, insinuating that the CHP and other opposition parties were denied the right to rally their supporters.
AK Party and its allies are in control of the parliament till 2028 when the next general elections are expected.
At the national level, Türkiye has faced numerous challenges mostly arising because of security and diplomatic crises unfolding in the region.
The Covid-19 pandemic hit the world hard. But it was particularly testing for countries like Türkiye, which hosts millions of tourists every year.
Following the pandemic, Türkiye’s economy registered 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2023 and 5.5 percent in the year before.
This was despite the global fallout of Russia-Ukraine war that drove up food and energy prices. Türkiye is a net energy importer and most of the drain on its foreign exchange reserves is because of gas and oil import payments.
High turnout
Over 61 million people were registered to vote with the voter turnout recorded at 76.6 percent. Around 34 political parties fielded their candidates.
Election authorities set up more than 206,000 polling stations across the country while tens of thousands of security personnel were deployed to ensure that no untoward incident took place.
More than 12,000 candidates were vying for municipal and provincial seats. Local governments in Türkiye are responsible for a wide range of social services including education and healthcare. It’s a challenge for any political group to manage the expectations of the people.
But the key policy issues including economic management and foreign policy continue to rest with the central government, which Erdogan leads as the President.
“Voter preference does not change over a year. Turkish voters have decisively elected Erdogan as president. I don't think the majority has even at all considered changing Erdogan,” Erim, the Turkish analyst, says.
Erim adds that Erdogan is “one of the greatest politicians of our time” with the ability of self-reflection.
“He will look for why this is happening. Why is the public giving him this message and then tomorrow he will start taking action.”
