Presidential polls have been proven to be wrong many times in past elections and this year’s election has no clear signs, which suggest that none of the presidential candidates has a significant advantage over the other.
With Vice-President Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic nominee, initial enthusiasm among Democrats appears to have faded, as recent polling shows the race nearly tied.
Trump’s edge
Neck and neck
Yet, other recent polls paint a different picture.
Harris’s narrow lead
Silver, known for accurately predicting the outcomes of the 2008, 2012, and 2020 elections, anticipates a close race but leans toward a Harris win. FiveThirtyEight, the polling analysis group Silver founded, also gives Harris a narrow lead at 50% to Trump’s 49%.
Other polls also tilt slightly toward Harris.
Both Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight, whose analyses are based on the probability of each candidate’s winning chances, have different methods than many other pollsters, which estimate how much each competitor will receive.
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll from late October showed Harris ahead by four points (51%-47%), while an ABC/Ipsos survey put her up by three points, 49%-46%.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who has successfully forecasted nearly every presidential election since 1984, predicts a Harris victory.
Using a model based on 13 “keys” to the White House—including factors like social stability, foreign policy, and the economy—Lichtman’s method draws on more than a century of presidential data to suggest a win for Harris.
While demographic shifts and unique polling models introduce uncertainty, the outcome remains anything but clear.
For now, it appears either candidate could clinch victory, making this one of the most unpredictable elections in recent memory.