By Brian Okoth
Calls have mounted for the extension of the soon-expiring Black Sea Grain Deal, a major intercountry agreement allowing the movement of foodstuffs from war-hit Ukraine.
The deal, which has seen nearly all continents receive grain from Ukraine, is set to expire on July 17, almost a year after it took effect.
At least 32.8 million metric tonnes of grain, including wheat, corn, barley, sunflower and soya beans, have been shipped out of Ukraine so far, according to the United Nations (UN).
Slightly more than 1,000 ships have ferried the foodstuffs to different destinations. UN data shows that Africa takes up 12.26% of grain imported from Ukraine, while the rest of the world, including Asia and Europe, accounts for 87.74% of the total grain shipment.
Shashwat Saraf, East African Region’s Director of the International Rescue Committee, says failure to renew the grain deal would cause “instability in the global food market.”
“Many countries in East Africa and other parts of the world rely on food imports to bridge shortage in the local market. If renewal of the grain deal is not secured, food insecurity in developing nations will only worsen,” Saraf tells TRT Afrika.
Abdikadir Bille, a farmer and major player in the agricultural sector in Somalia, also says an extension of the grain deal would immensely benefit Africa.
“Due to the long drought in the Horn of Africa region, millions of people have faced a hunger crisis. I am hopeful the relevant parties will extend the grain deal to avert malnutrition and deaths caused by hunger,” he tells TRT Afrika.
‘Doing it for Africa’
While announcing an extension of the deal by two months on May 17, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he was doing it for Africa and other developing nations, whose food security was significantly dependent on Ukrainian grain.
President Erdogan has proposed that the deal be extended by another three months, instead of two, to benefit African countries that are in “desperate need of grain shipments from Ukraine.”
If the Black Sea Grain Deal collapses, it would “absolutely hit eastern Africa very, very hard,” Dominique Ferretti, the UN World Food Programme’s senior emergency officer in the region, said in late June.
The export deal “is absolutely critical, not just for East Africa but all over Africa,” Ferretti said in Kenya’s capital Nairobi during a media interview.
As at August 2022, at least 139.95 million people in 35 African countries were facing hunger crisis or even worse situation of food insecurity. The UN projects the number of famine victims could be higher.
States of emergency
Hunger has led to the declaration of states of emergency in some countries, including Kenya previously, and Nigeria presently.
The leading beneficiaries of the Black Sea Grain Deal in Africa are Egypt, Tunisia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Algeria, Sudan, Libya and Somalia, according to UN data.
Many low-income countries in Africa import sunflower oil and wheat from Ukraine, while several lower middle-income countries ship in soybean oil, corn, sunflower oil, barley and wheat from Ukraine.
Egypt, the continent’s leader in grain imports, brings in wheat, corn and soya beans from Ukraine, while Kenya ships in wheat and corn.
Wheat and sunflower oil make up the largest grain consignments to Ethiopia, while Algeria ships most of its wheat and barley from Ukraine.
Under the World Food Programme (WFP) humanitarian shipments, Ethiopia has benefited the most, with 263,000 metric tonnes (36%) shipped to the country.
Sudan follows with 30,000 metric tonnes (4%) and then Kenya and Somalia with 25,000 metric tonnes each (3%). Djibouti is the other nation that has benefited from the WFP exports, with 1,000 metric tonnes.
Deal extension conditions
Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye and the UN all need to sign for the Black Sea Grain deal to meet extension requirements.
The UN, Ukraine and Türkiye have expressed their commitment to the extension of the deal, with only Russia remaining.
Russia accuses the West of imposing sanctions that have made it difficult for it to export its food and fertiliser, while the grain from Ukraine is allowed to “move freely” into other markets.
To address Russia’s grievances, Moscow signed an agreement with the UN to facilitate parallel shipment of its fertiliser and food to the rest of the world. Russia, however, says the agreement has not been honoured.
President Erdogan has sought to broker a deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin for the extension of the grain shipment. The Turkish leader has expressed optimism that Moscow will reach a compromise.
"We are preparing to host [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in Türkiye in August. We are of the same mind on the extension of the Black Sea grain corridor,” Erdogan told journalists after Friday prayers in Istanbul.
The Black Sea Grain Deal, which was hatched in July 2022 after the outbreak of Ukrainian war five months earlier, has so far been extended on three separate occasions – in November 2022, March and May, 2023.
If no extension agreement is reached, food prices are likely to rise and worsen the humanitarian crisis in some countries.
Global food crisis
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, normally supplying around 45 million tonnes of grain to the global market every year.
However, after Russia launched a war against the country in February 2022, tonnes of grain piled up in granaries as ships could not secure a safe passage from Ukrainian ports.
The resultant effect was a sharp increase in the prices of staple foods around the world. Energy prices were also high in 2022, forcing developing nations to bear the brunt.
To mitigate the situation, the UN, Ukraine, Türkiye and Russia agreed on July 22, 2023 to facilitate the Black Sea Grain Initiative that allowed exports from Ukraine to leave the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.
To implement the deal, a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) comprising senior representatives from Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the UN was established in the Turkish city of Istanbul.
According to the JCC, vessels wishing to participate in the initiative must undergo inspection off Istanbul to ensure they are empty of cargo, then sail through the maritime humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian ports to load.
