Türkiye’s democracy truly emerged in 1950 when the country moved from the one-party rule of the Republican People Party (CHP) to embrace a multi-party system in an election won by the conservative Democratic Party (DP).
Since then, Türkiye has had centre-right governments for nearly seven decades despite several military coups, all against conservative governments. And during this period, AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s uninterrupted rule has dominated the political landscape since 2003.
Despite some similarities, two political elements appear to distinguish the Erdogan-led governments and previous conservative experiences. They also explain why the Turkish president and the AK Party leader has been an invincible political force in the last three decades.
First, Erdogan ring-fenced his civilian rule against potential military interference to the extent that the Turkish army lost its political influence and was unable to disrupt his government twice – in 2007 and 2016.
Second, Erdogan cemented an assertive foreign policy aligned with an independent Turkish political agenda, which aims to reach both the Muslim community abroad and newly-energised Turkic states in Central Asia.
Unlike many leaders who courted either the democratic West or communist China and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintained healthy relations with both blocs.
With the help of Türkiye’s growing defence industry, Erdogan has increased its sphere of influence across a vast swathe of territories – from the Libyan conflict to the Azerbaijan-Armenia dispute and the Ukraine war, in which Ankara has become a prominent mediator between Kiev and Moscow.
Erdogan’s growing stature as a global statesman and deft mediator has instilled a sense of nationalistic pride among all sections of Turks and cemented his legacy as one of Türkiye’s most influential leaders.
The combination of Erdogan’s empowerment of civilian rule based on a conservative-nationalist political sentiment along with the country’s aspirations to be a global power has created a winning ticket for the AK Party leader, according to experts.
Civilian rule
While Türkiye has had mostly conservative governments since 1950, the military – with a rigid understanding of French secularism (laicism) – intervened at different times between the 1960s and 1990s.
Ironically, every post-coup election was won by conservative parties which emerged as successors to parties banned by military-led governments
During this period, conservative leaderships – from Democratic Party’s Adnan Menderes to Adalet Party’s Suleyman Demirel and Refah Party’s Necmettin Erbakan - could not stave off the military coups due to internal divisions between the centre-right, religious-right and nationalists.
But Erdogan differed from his conservative predecessors with his ability to bring many Turkish conservatist - from both the religious-right or centre-right - under his leadership, as well as getting support from a large parcel of nationalists.
Using his conservative popular support base, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to resist the secularist establishment’s pressure in 2007 after a controversial military memorandum against his government.
This defiance paid off in an election victory in July 2007, And the same year, his party also won a referendum on changing the constitution to enact the rule of electing presidents by a popular vote. This paved the way for the country adopting a presidential model ten years later in another critical referendum. In 2014, Erdogan became Türkiye’s first elected president with a poll victory.
In July 2016, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popular support saw millions of Turkish citizens responding to his call to launch street protests to defeat a coup attempt mobilised by the FETO (Fethullah Terrorist Organisation). At least, 252 people were killed and thousands of others were wounded when citizens braved bullets and tanks to defend democracy.
Erdogan emerged stronger from the failed coup, firming up his bases in the centre-right, religious right and nationalists.
Since then, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli has also been a reliable ally of the president, tightening political collaboration between centre-right and nationalist blocks.
The recent elections showed that centre-right and religious right votes alongside nationalists command nearly 65 percent in the Turkish electorate. In the last two decades, Erdogan, who can exclusively reach both religious right and nationalist votes, has been the only politician to claim much of this conservative electorate.
Toward global leadership
As Erdogan strengthened civilian rule at home, he also went about turning Türkiye into a global power like the powerful and vast Ottoman Empire, appealing to the Turkish political subconscious of its past greatness.
During the AK Party's two decades rule, Türkiye’s assertive foreign policy has echoed Erdogan’s global vision. As the country actively involved in various conflicts – from Syria to Libya, Azerbaijan and Kosova – it showed that Ankara can gain stakes across former Ottoman territories from the Middle East to North Africa, Caucasia and the Balkans.
Ankara’s successful global reach has made many Turkish citizens feel that their country can revitalise its past glory across areas from west to east, increasing ordinary people’s trust in Erdogan’s leadership. During the election campaign, Erdogan continuously emphasised Türkiye’s global leadership role, coined as the “Century of Türkiye” slogan.
"Our goal is to establish a belt of security and peace from Europe to the Black Sea, from the Caucasus and the Middle East to North Africa," Erdogan said, during a post-election speech in Ankara, underlining Türkiye’s increasing global role.
Strengthening defence capability
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership, Türkiye has initiated an indigenous weapons programme – manufacturing drones, submarines and warships like the TCG Anadolu, the country’s largest military vessel. Türkiye even exported its home-made weapons to different countries from Azerbaijan to Libya, Ukraine and Ethiopia.
Analysts have pointed out that Türkiye’s military assistance to Azerbaijan played a crucial role in defeating Armenian separatists in the Karabakh region, tightening ties between Baku and Ankara.
Türkiye’s military aid to the UN-recognised Tripoli government of Libya also helped the North African country survive several attacks from renegade forces. Improving ties between Tripoli and Ankara produced a maritime deal between the two countries to ensure their gas drilling rights across the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean.
Ankara has also built military bases across different continents from Somalia to Libya, Qatar, Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Albania. The Turkish army also participates in international peacekeeping forces in countries like Bosnia and Kosovo.
In the Ukraine conflict, Türkiye has also been very active, pursuing a middle ground unlike the West, bringing the warring sides to the negotiation table in several different instances. Ankara brokered a landmark grain deal, eliciting worldwide praise from the international community as it has stabilised global food security. Türkiye has also been able to extend the deal several times, most recently last month.
In 2021, Türkiye’s diplomatic activities also helped engineer the formation of the Organisation of Turkic States, a regional body aiming to improve ties between Ankara and Central Asian capitals. Developing political connections between Ankara and Central Asia has also borne fruit with increasing energy cooperation among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
With Erdogan’s leadership, Türkiye has also aimed to become a global gas hub partnering with energy-rich countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq and Qatar.
Türkiye’s indigenous drilling activities across eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea also began showing results as the country hopes to meet around 30 percent of its yearly gas demand from these newly-discovered energy reserves.
