By Ayse Betull Aytekin
Clashes with terrorists attempting to infiltrate the Operation Claw-Lock base area in northern Iraq last week resulted in the tragic loss of 12 Turkish soldiers. This attack was not the first of its kind.
PKK’s first terror attack against Türkiye was back in 1984, since then the terror group has declared open war against the Turkish state. In total, PKK terror attacks have claimed over 40,000 lives.
Initially a predominantly domestic issue, Türkiye's struggle against PKK underwent a significant shift following the Arab uprising, which created a power vacuum in Syria. Seizing its "right of self-defence" under Article 51 of the United Nations (UN) Charter, Türkiye announced the start of Operation Euphrates Shield (OES) on August 24, 2016.
Under which, the country successfully launched several military operations in northern Iraq and Syria, aimed at establishing safe zones up to 30 kilometres deep along its southern borders. The objectives included combating the PKK in northern Iraq, neutralising the YPG/PYD (PKK's Syria offshoot) along the Syrian-Turkish border, safeguarding the territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq, halting the flow of refugees into Türkiye and facilitating secure zones for the eventual voluntary return of Syrian refugees.
In the last seven years, Türkiye has accomplished most of these objectives. However, while Türkiye continues to secure its territory and people, what significance does the country’s presence, in northern Iraq and Syria, hold for the region?
Preemptive, proactive & indispensable
Following the absence of political authority in the region due to the Arab uprising, a terror corridor, along the Turkish-Syrian border, was opened by PKK, YPG/PYD and Daesh, not without the support of Western countries. Using this corridor as a base, these terrorist organisations conducted operations inside the border districts of Türkiye.
Rockets and mortars launched from this region targeted towns on the Turkish side of the border, which forced the closure of schools in border towns.
The growing threat has been so acute that Turkish Armed Forces, deployed specifically in northern Syria and Iraq base areas, have aligned with a "preemptive/proactive defence" strategy, security analyst and former military officer Ulas Pehlivan tells TRT World.
“The current presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in the region is indispensable for our domestic security,” he adds, since Türkiye began the campaigns against Daesh and subsequently PKK/YPG, terrorist activities have been minimised within the country.
After Türkiye pushed the PKK out of its territory, the terror group began targeting Turkish military bases in northern Iraq. Also since the Turkish military disrupted PKK supply lines, with the help of Kurdish Peshmerga forces, PKK has been unable to conduct major attacks within Turkish territory.
The Turkish military has now established temporary bases in northern Iraq cutting off any direct territorial connections between PKK and Türkiye.
In northern Syria, the Turkish Armed Forces and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have cleared the town of Afrin, which served as a military hub for the YPG terror group. This operation, known as Operation Olive Branch, was executed between January and March 2018 with the objective of blocking logistical support lines which ran through the Amanos Mountains along the border.
Regional balances
Since the beginning of anti-terror operations, the regional integrity of both Syria and Iraq has been of vital significance for Türkiye in uprooting terrorist infrastructure.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's historic speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2019, before Operation Peace Spring had begun, showed Türkiye's not only determined to protect its territory but also care for Syria's territorial integrity and adopt a holistic counterterrorism approach.
By saying that many Syrian refugee could resettle if the safe zone was expanded, Erdogan revealed Türkiye’s intention to establish a 30 kilometre deep, 480 kilometre long peace corridor, and with the international support, voluntarily repatriate up to two million Syrians from Türkiye, Europe and other parts of the world.
Despite Türkiye keeping its promises over the years, it has not received the necessary support from allies in its efforts to provide security in the region. As a result, there is still no guarantee of comprehensive authority in Iraq and Syria.
“It doesn’t matter how effective the Turkish armed forces are if ungoverned spaces continue to exist in northern Iraq and Syria,” former American military officer Edward J. Erickson told TRT World.
According to Erickson, a retired professor of military history, Türkiye’s operations should be followed by effective governance in these territories, and "a permanent solution can only evolve when Syria and Iraq collaborate with Türkiye on a nation-state-to-nation-state basis to destroy the terrorist sanctuaries."
On the other hand, the difference of stance between the two authorities in Kurdish Iraq, towards Türkiye’s fight, has required a sensitively balanced strategy.
Erbil-based journalist Bekir Aydogan explains that the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by the Barzani family in Erbil, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by the Talabani family in Sulaymaniyah, the two most influential parties in the Kurdistan Regional Government (IKBY), have opposing policies regarding Türkiye's anti-PKK operations.
While the KDP supports Türkiye's operations and demands the withdrawal of the PKK from the Iraq and Kurdistan Regional Government (IKBY), PUK officials oppose these operations. Türkiye's close political and military relations with the KDP expedite its anti-terror operations in the region and weaken PKK pressure on the KDP, Aydogan tells TRT World.
"Considering the lack of strong reactions from IKBY and taking into account Ankara's current strategy—along with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement in September, urging Iraqi authorities to swiftly eliminate the increasing presence of the PKK in Kirkuk—it can be inferred that Ankara’s operations will persist, and there is a possibility of extending its anti-PKK operations to include Kirkuk," he says.
Türkiye has closed its airspace to flights to and from Iraq's Sulaymaniyah airport amid PKK terrorist activities in the region and PUK's stance on these activities.
Furthermore, the victory of the PUK in the local elections held this month in Iraq "signals Türkiye's continued close monitoring of Kirkuk, which is significant for its Turkmen population," Aydogan adds.
What’s next?
Last week’s PKK terror attacks, which killed 12 Turkish soldiers, in northern Iraq’s Hakurk and Metina regions came amid seasonal challenges such as difficulty in tracking drone movements due to adverse weather conditions like snowstorms and heavy fog in both regions.
Hakurk, a crucial base for the PKK in northern Iraq, has been under Turkish control since 2019, following Operation Claw-Lock, which marked a significant turning point for the PKK's activities in northern Iraq.
Some experts point out that in the past, Turkish forces would retreat from the operation regions during the winter, a time when PKK militants would take advantage of the withdrawal to return and reposition. However, since 2016 Ankara has continued an uninterrupted military presence in the region.
Geographical and climatic conditions favour attackers over defenders, Pehlivan says, mentioning how the increasing snow cover reduces the obstructiveness of physical barriers, making them more easily traversable, and how snow's absorbing properties dampen sounds and radio waves, enabling quieter advancements in approaching base areas.
Despite these challenges, Pehlivan adds, Türkiye's military bases have developed capabilities of top-notch security, even in challenging terrains like the Iki Yakalar Mountains in Hakkari.
However, counterterrorism, which encompasses cultural, political, social, and economic dimensions, is a multidimensional concept. Relying solely on a militaristic approach is insufficient for success, according to former military officer Pehlivan.
"Particularly in the Middle East region, security is expensive," he adds, "assuming minimal impacts from other global/regional actors, I anticipate that, in the long term, after Türkiye attains its goals in the region, its military presence could be retracted within the borders of Türkiye."
However, considering that, Turkish forces conducting temporary operations might create an opportunity for terrorist organisations to reoccupy the area soon after. Ali Fuat Gokce, security analyst and Politics Lecturer at Gaziantep University, says the need for Türkiye to establish permanent base areas in northern Iraq and Syria will impede the logistical flow of terrorist organisations in the eastern, western, and north-eastern directions while also putting a halt to their drug smuggling.
It should be noted that not only has Türkiye been grappling with the challenge of combating terrorism alone, but its allies are arming its enemies and then discouraging Türkiye, itself, from taking action.
According to Gokce, even though effective and committed cross-border operations are important, the ultimate solution will be achieved through regional cooperation to uproot terrorist organisations completely.
“If they do not cooperate, Türkiye is capable of conducting cross-border military operations on its own. However, this situation does not go beyond removing terrorist organisations from the border,” Gokce tells TRT World.
“The United States and other allies remaining silent on this issue does not open up any other way to sweep the terrorist organisation from the north to the south,” he adds.
