By Brian Okoth
It is no longer in doubt that either Manchester City or Arsenal will lift the English Premier League trophy for the 2023/24 season on Sunday.
The two clubs are neck and neck in the race for the title, which could be decided by goal difference. That is how tight the contest is.
But goal difference would only decide the winner if Manchester City pick four points from their remaining two matches, and Arsenal win their last match.
Arsenal, who have played 37 games and are therefore left with only one match to end their season, have 86 points and a goal difference of 61.
City's game in hand
Manchester City, who have played 36 games and are left with two matches, including one against Tottenham on Tuesday, have 85 points and a goal difference of 58, meaning only a point and three goals separate them.
Should Tottenham hold Manchester City to a draw in their next fixture, it would mean that both City and Arsenal would be level on points – 86 each.
But the goal difference would still be three, in favour of Arsenal.
Hypothetically, let us say Arsenal beat Everton 1-0 on the final match day to extend their goal difference to 62.
Same number of points and goal difference
On the other hand, Manchester City beat West Ham United 4-0 to extend their goal difference to 62.
The two teams would have therefore tied at 89 points each, with a goal difference of 62 each.
Now, who between them will be crowned the winner of the EPL title in such a scenario?
The Premier League says on its official website: "If any clubs finish with the same number of points, their position in the Premier League table is determined by goal difference, then the number of goals scored, then the team who collected the most points in the head-to-head matches, then who scored most away goals in the head-to-head."
City better placed to win league title
Now, let us return to City's quest for the title against Arsenal, and also assume that City's clash against Spurs ended in a 1-1 score-line.
If the season ends as we have hypothetically put it, Man City would end the current campaign with 96 goals scored. Currently, they are on 91. The extra five are: one against Spurs, and four against West Ham on final match day.
Arsenal would end the season with 90 goals scored. Currently, they are on 89. The extra goal would be the 1-0 against Everton on final match day.
This means that the 2023/24 EPL title would go to City, who have more goals scored – 96 against Arsenal's 90.
Note that Arsenal's goal difference is superior because they have conceded less goals, when compared with Manchester City.
Who wins if they also tie on goals scored?
In a scenario where the two teams also tie on goals scored, Arsenal would have an upper hand in the head-to-head matches.
City and Arsenal played against each other in the first half of the 2023/24 EPL season on October 8, 2023, and Arsenal beat City 1-0. In the return fixture on March 31, the game ended 0-0.
This means that Arsenal got 4 points out of the possible 6 against City, while City got only one point.
Therefore, should the title winner be decided by head-to-head statistics, Arsenal would be crowned champions.
Fourth consecutive title for City?
City would be chasing their record-breaking fourth consecutive EPL title and their 10th in the club's history.
Arsenal, on the other hand, would be chasing their first EPL trophy since 2003/04 season, and their 14th in the club's history.
No EPL team has ever won four league titles in a row. Only Huddersfield Town, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City have won three league titles in a row.
Note that our article is based on the analysis of specific possibilities, and that it is also highly unlikely that the season would end as hypothesised here.
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