By Ambassador Mahboub Maalim and Nuur Mohamud Sheekh
The escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a stark reminder that unresolved disputes can have far-reaching implications for regional peace and security, with the potential to escalate into full-scale inter-state wars.
The African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), as the primary regional mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution, must draw critical lessons from the DRC crisis to mitigate similar risks in the Horn of Africa.
The urgency of preventive diplomacy has never been greater, as simmering tensions in the region could rapidly spiral into large-scale conflict, destabilising an already fragile landscape and drawing in external actors with competing strategic interests.
The Horn of Africa remains one of the most geopolitically complex and volatile regions on the continent, where a confluence of unresolved territorial disputes, political fragmentation, and external interference poses a serious threat to regional stability.
Straining bilateral relations
Key flashpoints include tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, unresolved disputes between Sudan and South Sudan, including the final status of Abyei area, the protracted Sudan-Ethiopia border conflict over Al Fashaga, and growing tensions over access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
For instance, the Abyei Protocol of 2005, which was intended to determine the region’s final status, remains unimplemented.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has repeatedly expressed concern over delays in its implementation and the worsening security situation, urging the parties to adhere to their commitments.
Similarly, the Ethiopia-Sudan border dispute over Al Fashaga, a strategically significant and agriculturally rich territory, has triggered intermittent clashes, further straining bilateral relations.
The UNSC has underscored the necessity of resolving these disputes through dialogue, upholding international law, and respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Diplomatic solutions needed
The Horn of Africa has increasingly become a theatre for external geopolitical rivalries, with global and regional powers leveraging economic, military, and diplomatic tools to secure influence.
This external engagement, whether through arms supplies, military bases, or economic investments, often exacerbates internal divisions and undermines indigenous peace processes.
The risk of strategic miscalculations is high, as conflicting interests among external actors could further entrench rivalries, making diplomatic solutions more elusive.
The AU’s Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) were designed to detect and respond to emerging threats before they escalate.
However, these mechanisms remain constrained by inadequate funding, limited technical capacity, and bureaucratic inefficiencies.
A major challenge is the misalignment between national, regional, and continental priorities, which often delays effective interventions.
The reluctance of member states to cede sovereignty in matters of security further weakens the AU’s and IGAD’s ability to respond decisively.
Persistent violations of ceasefire
While the AU’s Panel of the Wise and IGAD Secretariat have played crucial roles in past mediation efforts, their impact is frequently undermined by institutional overlaps, lack of clear mandates, and political divisions among member states.
The principle of subsidiarity, which is intended to clarify roles between the AU and regional economic communities (RECs) like IGAD, remains contested, leading to duplication of efforts and inertia.
The result is a reactive rather than proactive approach to conflict prevention.
Even in situations of intra-state conflicts, the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), facilitated by IGAD, has faced significant implementation challenges, with persistent violations of ceasefire agreements and delays in political reforms.
Similarly, the 2022 Ethiopia Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, brokered under AU auspices, has yet to achieve full stabilisation, demonstrating the limitations of existing mediation frameworks.
The ongoing civil war in Sudan is perhaps the most glaring example of the AU and IGAD’s waning influence; despite numerous diplomatic efforts, neither organisation has managed to enforce a durable ceasefire or protect civilians from mass atrocities.
Risks to Africa’s collective ability
IGAD has also struggled to mediate between Eritrea and Ethiopia, despite both being member states.
The continued tensions between Eritrea and Djibouti, a dispute that has faded from international attention, exemplify the gaps in sustained preventive diplomacy.
Without stronger institutional leverage, these unresolved disputes risk reigniting armed confrontations.
The imperative for decisive, coordinated, and preventive diplomacy in the Horn of Africa has never been more urgent.
The African Union and IGAD must transcend institutional inertia and political hesitancy to assert their mandate as the primary custodians of regional peace and security.
This requires strengthening early warning systems, enhancing mediation capacities, and securing greater buy-in from member states to uphold peace agreements and de-escalate tensions before they escalate into inter-state conflicts.
The principle of African solutions to African problems must be more than rhetoric, it must be operationalised with the political will, financial resources, and institutional resolve necessary to address the region’s complex security landscape.
Failure to act with urgency risks not only regional destabilisation but also the erosion of Africa’s collective ability to shape its own security future in an increasingly multipolar world.
The authors: Ambassador Mahboub Maalim is a Kenyan diplomat and is a former Executive Secretary of IGAD. Nuur Mohamed Sheekh is Geo-Political Analyst
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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