By Kabiru Adamu
The West African sub-region is in the middle of another scramble for influence and dominance between world powers.
The most obvious element of this is seen in the context of military incursion into governance in some countries in the sub-region. These are in spite of the region's resolve to uphold democratic governance.
At the moment four of the sub-region’s 15 members: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger, are being governed by military juntas.
The most recent coup d’etat occurred in Niger Republic on July 26, 2023, just a few weeks after the new ECOWAS Chairman, Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, pledged to revive democratic governance in the sub-region.
A strong anti-France sentiment preceded the coup d’etat in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger Republic. Ironically all the four countries are former French colonies.
No waiver
The narratives around the anti-French sentiments have revolved around the exploitation of natural resources at the detriment of citizens of these countries, economic deprivation and insecurity.
The crystallization of these anti-French sentiments by the military junta in the four countries has allowed them massive public support. Incidentally, as these countries faced isolation, Russia and its private military contractor have made tremendous gains in them.
In his acceptance speech as Chairperson of ECOWAS, Nigeria’s president Bola Ahmed Tinubu, said that the Commission shall not waiver or flinch on its stand to defend and preserve constitutional order.
“Some observers assert a new scramble for Africa is afoot and it is much like the old scramble that plundered our continent,'' President Tinubu said.
''But, here and now, let it be said to whomever the new scramblers might be that our continent may be old but our spirit is new. And it is strong. The bad that took place in the past must stay there. It shall never be repeated,” he warned
Obligations
It was therefore not surprising that ECOWAS member Heads of State met in the aftermath of the coup and announced a set of stringent measures against Niger Republic, which included the threat of military intervention if at the end of seven days (that is by Sunday, August 06, 2023) the military junta do not free the democratically elected president and restore constitution law in the country.
Military intervention in Niger Republic is consistent with the ECOWAS policy of non-acceptance of unconstitutional change of government and seeking to act in compliance with this policy is good in itself in the spirit of pacta sunt servanda.
ECOWAS has a standing rule that under no circumstance would any unconstitutional change of government be acceptable in its inter-state relations.
Therefore, under the rule of pacta sunt servanda, all ECOWAS member states have the responsibility of faithfully complying with the obligations contracted as a result of their membership of the regional organization.
At the end of a three-day meeting of military chiefs of ECOWAS member states, which held in Abuja from August 03 – 05, 2023, its Peace and Security Commissioner, Abdel-Fatau Musah “all the elements that will go into any eventual intervention have been worked out,”.
He added these included “the resources needed, and including the how and when we are going to deploy the force.''
The regional group did not rule out diplomacy. ''We want diplomacy to work, and we want this message clearly transmitted to them (the junta) that we are giving them every opportunity to reverse what they have done,” Musah said.
This is in spite of a strong resentment to the idea of a military intervention by a huge segment of the Nigerian population.
Neighbours
While all of this ongoing, the military Junta in Niger Republic has taken a defiant stance, with President Mohammed Bazoum still in its detention and going about the formation of a government while seeking alliances across and beyond the subregion.
Already, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea and Mali have voiced opposition to a military intervention in Niger.
As these issues continue to unfold, there are concerns for a greater regional implication and consequence to the effort to address insecurity in the subregion as well as the desire to entrench democratic governance.
Some of these concerns include the potentiality of Niger Republic terminating its cooperation with the intergovernmental G-5 Sahel body and joint force (established in 2014); Niger Republic withdrawing from the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) as a collective force combating militant groups.
There are also concerns over the possibility of Niger Republic withdrawing from the Accra Initiative (2017) which is mechanism aimed at promoting and enhancing security cooperation focusing on localised cross-border dynamics in response to growing insecurity linked to violent extremism (and climate shocks) in the region).
These scenarios could further jeopardise the fight against terrorism and insurgencies in the sub-region.
It is envisaged that as the isolation strategy by ECOWAS, the African Union (AU), and the international community forces Niger, Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso to coalesce further, there might be no speedy transition toward democracy.
If divisions continue among countries in West Africa, there are fears the countries could be distracted from their common goal of tackling insecurity.
The author, Kabiru Adamu, is a Security Risk Management and Intelligence specialist based in Nigeria.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
