By Dr Sami A Al-Arian
Military conflicts are inherently complex. Experts may hold differing views on the goals, strategies or tactics of armed conflicts.
Yet many of them would likely agree with 19th-century Prussian military general Carl von Clausewitz’s famous observation that “war is politics by other means”. Victory, in the end, is a political matter.
Over two millennia ago, Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu declared, “Victory is the main object in war.” This victory can manifest on tactical, operational, or strategic levels.
However, the victory that ultimately matters is strategic.
Now, with a ceasefire agreement finally in place after more than 15 months of relentless Israeli onslaught in Gaza, the question is: what does victory actually mean in this context?
Historically, a war is won when the victors force the vanquished to capitulate, surrender, or when they achieve their political aims.
Victory often involves a formal agreement where the defeated are humiliated by being forced to lay down arms, give up territory, or change their political system.
In essence, victory is declared when the prevailing party imposes its will on the enemy.
Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently touted his war objectives and vowed to continue the slaughter of Palestinians until those goals were achieved.
The objectives of his genocidal campaign included the elimination of Hamas and other resistance factions or at least their disarmament; the removal of Hamas’s rule over Gaza; and the release of all Israeli captives taken on October 7 through military pressure, rather than a prisoner exchange, which would include thousands of Palestinians languishing in Israeli prisons.
Israel’s failed campaign
For 470 days since that fateful day, Israel has waged an unrelenting genocidal campaign that has caused immense suffering for the people of Gaza.
The toll has been devastating: nearly 60,000 killed, 60 percent of them women and children; thousands of others missing; more than 130,000 injured; over two million displaced; and the widespread destruction of infrastructure and civilian life, not only in Gaza but also in southern Lebanon.
Throughout this brutal war, there were several attempts to broker a ceasefire by the mediators, namely Qatar, Egypt, and the US.
In May and July, these mediators proposed a deal that was going to effectively end the war in return for the release of all the Israeli captives.
In both instances, Hamas agreed to the terms, but Netanyahu foiled it, vowing to continue until he achieved what he called “total victory” and fulfilled his pledge to “free all the hostages” through “military pressure.”
Despite the brutal war that resulted in immense human suffering in Gaza, Israel has failed to achieve any of its political objectives.
From the beginning, the Palestinian resistance continued to challenge Israel’s military presence across Gaza in a war of attrition that intensified in the final weeks, leading to the deaths of hundreds of Israeli soldiers and injuries to thousands of others until the ceasefire was declared on January 19.
In short, Israel could neither dismantle nor dislodge Hamas from Gaza.
Trump nudges Netanyahu
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump urged the indicted Israeli Prime Minister – who is facing charges of war crimes at the International Criminal Court – to “finish the job” or eliminate Hamas and bring the war to a close.
Trump’s call was motivated by his desire to focus on his own domestic and international agendas, particularly in relation to the Russian war in Ukraine and the growing rivalry with China, without being distracted by the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
As Trump came to realise that Netanyahu would never succeed in eradicating the resistance in Gaza, he intervened in the ceasefire negotiations in Doha just one week before his inauguration.
Trump pressured Netanyahu into accepting a deal, despite Israel’s failure to meet any of its objectives.
According to the Hebrew press, several Israeli cabinet ministers were reduced to tears upon realising that the time for continuing their genocidal military campaign had ended.
In fact, the latest ceasefire is strikingly similar, both in structure and substance, to the earlier agreements Hamas had publicly accepted in May and July.
From the outset, Hamas set five key red lines that it insisted must be included in any negotiated deal.
They are:
1. A permanent end to the war in Gaza.
2. A full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, including dismantling the Netzarim crossing, withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor, allowing the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, and reopening the Rafah crossing with Egypt.
3. The exchange of Israeli captives for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, including those sentenced to life and long-term sentences.
4. The delivery of massive aid to Palestinians, including food, fuel, shelter, and medical supplies.
5. The initiation of reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts across Gaza.
All of these conditions, once dismissed by the Zionist regime but insisted upon by Hamas and other resistance factions, have now not only been included in the current ceasefire agreement but have also been guaranteed by the mediators, including the US—Israel's primary benefactor and supporter.
This outcome, which demonstrates the failure of the Zionist regime to achieve any of its political objectives or dictate the terms of the ceasefire, is a clear indicator of the strategic defeat of Israel’s military campaign.
Since the ceasefire took effect, celebrations, joy and a sense of pride and accomplishment – all signs of victory – have been seen widely among Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and beyond.
On the other hand, doom and gloom have cast a large shadow across Israeli society, while many Israeli politicians have reacted with shock and shame – another profound display of the Zionist regime’s loss despite its overwhelming military might.
Such Israeli defeat was, in fact, anticipated by Sun Tzu in his seminal book The Art of War, where he said, “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”
This is exactly what Israel’s genocidal campaign spectacularly failed to achieve.
The author, Dr Sami A. Al-Arian, is Director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Istanbul Zaim University.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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