By Mubarak Aliyu
On 29 January 2025, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—now unified under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—officially withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), marking a pivotal shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
This unprecedented departure signals more than a diplomatic rift. It reflects deep-seated frustrations over security cooperation, economic dependency, and political autonomy.
However, pressing challenges loom large as both blocs navigate the aftermath.
From the future of monetary sovereignty in the region to trade relations and fragile security alliances, the implications of the breakaway move could reshape the future of regional integration in West Africa.
The CFA Question
Finding a new approach towards financial autonomy could become crucial for the stability of both the AES and ECOWAS.
France’s influence over West Africa’s economic affairs is most evident in its management of the CFA franc - the currency used by several Francophone countries in the region.
France exerts undue control over monetary policy in its former African colonies and influences the central banks of the CFA zone.
The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) are required to deposit 50% of their foreign reserves with the French Treasury.
This arrangement gives France effective veto power over monetary decisions and ensures that capital generated by these economies benefits French interests.
Since the CFA is pegged to the Euro, its structural overvaluation makes imports to member countries cheaper and exports less competitive.
This setup effectively positions many ECOWAS and AES member states as suppliers of low-cost raw materials for French industries, further fuelling the cycle of dependency, while limiting the capacity of their local industries.
In the past decade, ECOWAS has made attempts at adopting a common currency called the Eco for West African countries.
However, the Eco's launch has been postponed multiple times since its initial proposal nearly 30 years ago, largely due to economic instability, political disagreements, and external shocks.
Considering how anti-French sentiment has been central to the legitimacy of AES leaders, the question remains how will the three countries (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) chart a new economic path away from the CFA?
Geographical constraints
Access to ports is another major issue of concern for the AES states — Since Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali are all landlocked, all three countries rely heavily on their coastal neighbours for access to seaports.
This dependency makes them vulnerable to the political and economic decisions made in the littoral states, which can disrupt trade routes and lead to delays in the movement of goods.
Following their official departure from ECOWAS, the two blocs have entered into a post-exit dialogue to establish a framework for continued trade relations and cooperation.
Although ECOWAS has allowed the three countries to temporarily benefit from free trade with its member states under the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS), the future modalities of engagement between both parties are yet to be finalised.
This means that the economic resilience of the AES lies in the ability of its landlocked members to maintain reasonable trade relations with their ECOWAS neighbours while sustaining their desired political autonomy from the bloc.
Security cooperation
Security cooperation in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin remains uncertain given regional stability relies heavily on joint efforts, particularly through the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).
Established to combat Boko Haram and other terrorist groups in the Lake Chad Basin, the MNJTF is led by Nigeria and includes Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and a smaller contingent from Benin.
While Chad and Cameroon represent Central African involvement, ECOWAS has played a key role in supporting MNJTF operations within its broader counterterrorism strategy.
However, the diplomatic fallout between Nigeria and Niger following Niger's July 2023 coup, led to the formation of the AES as a separate military pact.
Since then, Niger has significantly scaled back its participation in the MNJTF, signalling a shift from the Nigeria-led initiative. Although recent engagements between the military leaders of both countries show potential for renewed collaboration, ECOWAS’s role in restoring robust security cooperation in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin hangs in the balance.
Looking ahead
Despite existing tensions from the fragmentation of ECOWAS, enhanced diplomatic cooperation signals a promising future for the region.
At the 5th Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum recently held in Maiduguri, Nigeria, a commitment to enhance the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to combat Boko Haram, ISWAP, and other security threats was emphasised by regional and international actors.
In the short to medium term, we are likely to see ambitious attempts by the AES countries to break away from the CFA zone, in order to complete the anti-imperialist stance against France.
For ECOWAS, however, although the Eco has failed to gain traction recently, it remains the most feasible monetary policy alternative for political stability, true monetary independence and economic integration in the region.
Overall, a unified ECOWAS foreign policy towards France remains a major factor to be considered, as military agreements between several member states and the French government are being terminated.
The bloc must adopt a common policy that factors in the renewed push for economic and military autonomy from France among many citizens in the region.
This unified foreign policy must take sovereignty and cooperation into account, as both elements are crucial to preventing further crises within ECOWAS.
Mubarak Aliyu is a political analyst and writer covering West Africa and the Sahel regions. His topics of interest include governance and inclusive development.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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