By Emmanuel Onyango and Najib Bencherif
Wagner Group’s operations in Africa have come under sharp focus following its short-lived mutiny in Russia that led to its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, being told to relocate to Belarus.
The mercenary group has had footprints in six African countries - Mozambique, Madagascar, Central African Republic (CAR), Sudan, Mali and Libya – where its several thousand fighters have operated under security contracts involving active combat or training of government soldiers.
In terms of military strength, the Wagner group is believed to have around 5000 fighters operating in Africa. Its operations started in 2017 and have been expanding since then.
In exchange to providing muscle, Wagner bargained for deals in the extractive industry of client states – winning diamond and gold mining licenses as well as benefitting from oil.
That business model has reportedly seen its fighters protect economic assets in Libya including oil wells in strongholds of rebel general Khalifa Haftar, while in Mozambique they fought rebels in the oil-rich Cabo Delgado province where they also suffered casualties.
Human rights
“They are not there because they are socially responsible, they are there because they want to make money. They do whatever it takes to make money and that’s the history of Wagner group in Africa,” Thembisa Fakude, the director of Africa Asia Dialogues Institution, told TRT Afrika.
Much of Wagner’s operations on the continent depended on Russia’s patronage and became a vital tool in Kremlin's influence in Africa especially in unstable countries where initiatives led by France had failed to restore order.
In Mali, the group’s arrival in 2021 after the military seized power was welcomed by ecstatic crowds that waved Russian flags and carried banners denouncing former colonial power France.
Wagner was reportedly to be paid about $11 million a month for its services there, according to news agencies.
Its fighters were soon to be accused of human rights abuses in the country including in Mopti, Segou, Tombouctou, and Koulikoro regions, according to data by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled).
Up to Africa
Similar accusations of abuses against civilians were made on its operations in CAR where it helped President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s government fend off a powerful rebel coalition that had sought to take over power.
But analysts believe some of the narratives against the Wagner group are lopsided. "The preferred narrative is that everything they touch is a complete disaster and I don’t think there is evidence of that," Alex Vines, the director of the Africa Program at Chatham House, told TRT Afrika.
“The Western narrative is that everything Wagner has done is just terrible – lots of human rights abuses. There was failure in Mozambique, they haven’t been successful in Mali. But they have kind of been successful in providing some type of security within the internal conflict in Libya for example,” he opines.
Wagner has not shown any interest in ending its relationships with African countries but questions linger in the wake of last week's revolt.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had assured that the group’s security contracts will remain.
But although later said that African countries’ leaders should decide whether they want to continue working with Wagner.
The US has said it will announce further actions to hold the group accountable for its activities in Africa.
Mixed implications
Some say the rift between Wagner group leadership and the Russian government under Putin could come with mixed implications as per the operations of the group in Africa.
‘’It is good news for Africa because Wagner Group has not been constructive in its involvement in Africa. It is not going to be good for countries such as Mali which has relied on Wagner group in fighting militants, it leaves them vulnerable,” said Fakude.
“Other places such as CAR you have to wait and see, including countries such as Mozambique, DRC and other places in Africa where they are in.”
But amidst the uncertainty are questions on what Wagner’s void in Africa will mean especially on the stability in the Sahel, where insurgents may seek to recover lost territories and expand reach.
Government in the regions have not yet commented although the insurgency in the Sahel region has previously expanded to coastal West Africa.
United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali, is set to end its mandate later this month, bringing to a close its decade-long presence in the country, following years of tensions between the UN and Mali's military leaders.
Wagner group’s withdrawal from the country would mean Malian underequipped forces combating insurgents on their own.
In the alternative, some African militaries could move in to take up roles previously performed by the group – similar to what Rwandan forces are currently doing in northern Mozambique.
“African militaries may be competing with Wagner’s offer too and I think that’s a good thing. It is better to have disciplined African military dealing with this than foreigners are. Rwanda’s track record in Mozambique is a good one,” says Vines.
