By Coletta Wanjohi
Sudan is currently engulfed in deadly armed conflict led by two rival generals with all efforts to silence the guns failing so far.
Hopes for an end to the bloodshed appear to be fading with the Sudanese army pulling out of talks with rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
On Wednesday, the army said it was walking out of the US and Saudi-brokered ceasefire talks because the RSF does not respect ceasefire agreements. But the RSF also accused the army of repeatedly violating truce.
The latest development has cast a shadow on hopes for immediate peace in Sudan. The fighting for control of Africa’s third largest country started on April 15 killing more than 800 people and displacing more than 1.4 million others so far according to the United Nations.
The Sudan Federal Ministry of Health says in addition to hundreds of deaths, about 5,500 have been injured across the country so far.
The conflict between the Sudanese army the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has also derailed the country’s process to return to civilian rule earlier expected to happen in 2024.
Elusive peace
Leaders of the army and the RSF had held the top positions on Sudan’s ruling council since former leader Omar al-Bashir was removed from power following an uprising in 2019.
They staged a coup in 2021 as they were due to hand leadership of the council to civilians with army chife Abdel Fatah al Burhan leading the government while the RSF commander Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo popularly known serving as his deputy.
But the two generals later fell out over the chain of command and restructuring of the RSF and possibly integrating into the national army under the planned transition; and after weeks of growing tension, bloody fighting broke out in April.
"Only 20% of health facilities in Khartoum are still functioning, a true collapse of the system right when it’s needed the most,” said Alfonso Verdu Perez, the head of ICRC team in Sudan.
Those who have managed to flee the country are seeking refuge in Sudan’s neigbours including South Sudan, Chad, Egypt or Ethiopia raising fears of a humanitarian crisis in the wider region. Thousands of foreigners evacuated by their governments.
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who is leading the Sudanese Army and general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the head of the Rapid Support Forces have yet to practically stop violence despite repeatedly announcing ceasefires.
There have been at least 10 different announcements of ceasefires between the two warring parties mainly to allow for humanitarian corridor. All have not been fully respected despite ‘’commitments’’ to truce by the fighting parties.
Those who had helped in getting the parties to reach ceasefire agreements include the UN, the African Union, the East African regional group IGAD and the latest being the US and Saudi Arabia. The first ceasefire attempt was on April 16, a day after the fighting began.
No guarantors
“As long as the two generals can get an advantage on the ground, it is not in their own self-interest they see it to stop fighting,”
Tibor Nagy the former US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa tells TRT Afrika. ‘’The international community can’t do everything until the two guys are ready,” Nagy adds.
“For a ceasefire to hold, that ceasefire requires guarantors to keep the people who have signed the agreement to account,” says Dr. Edgar Githua, an international relations expert.
On May 20, Saudi Arabia and the United States facilitated the signing of an agreement on short term ceasefire between the warring factions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
This ceasefire, unlike the previous ones, had a monitoring mechanism but fighting was reported within the agreed seven days. But negotiators have not relented.
On May 30, an extension of the ceasefire for another five days was announced. Mediators have admitted that the truce had been "imperfectly observed" but said the extension "will permit further humanitarian efforts".
But fighting was still reported hours into the latest extension and a day later, the army confirmed it was pulling out of the agreement.
In addition to withdrawing from talks, the Sudanese Armed Forces asked for the resignation of Special Representative of the UN Secretary General (SRSG) Volker Perthes who leads the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS).
The army chief General Abdel Fatah al Burhan accused the UN envoy of fueling the conflict but UN officials have quickly rejected this allegation.
External backers?
Some analysts say as international calls and appeals appear to be largely unheeded by the Sudan’s fighting generals, some forms of tougher measures might help.
“Sanctions are one way that could force these people to at least tone down the fighting because if you do not find a weak point or where they are vulnerable and you hold them with that vulnerable point they will keep fighting , “ Githua tells TRT Afrika.
But Nibor Nagy feels international sanctions might not be so effective either. “The problem is you can put so many sanctions but how much is that going to hurt if they have means aside from the dollar system to market their gold?” he asks.
The African Union insists that the peace process in Sudan must be led by Africans especially the Sudanese people themselves.
The continental body had rejected all forms of external interference in the country. Analysts Edward Githua believes there are likely ‘’big powerful countries’’ who are backing parties to the conflict.
‘’if we can get these external backers also to tone down and to back out of this and to stop supporting the generals we might have a chance of these ceasefires holding,” Githua says.
Despite the glaring tough challenges, efforts to find a solution continue with the African Union, the United Nations and the regional group, Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) working together.
Too many cooks
The African Union Commission says its chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat “will dispatch emissaries’’ to countries neighbouring Sudan as part of his efforts ‘’to strengthen the search for a common approach to finding a sustainable solution to the multi-layered crisis in Sudan.”
The joint approach is crucial because “a multiplicity and proliferation of mediation initiatives will not serve the interests of the collective will of the Sudanese people,” says Dr. Workeneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary for regional group, IGAD.
With no end in sight to the violence in Sudan, there are growing fears that Sudan is moving in a more dangerous – some saying a possible civil should be avoided.
Barely two weeks after the conflict broke out, the country’s former Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok sounded a stark warning saying ‘’God forbid if Sudan is to reach a point of civil war engulfing entire region…I think it will be a nightmare for the world.”
Hamdok who was removed from power by the two generals currently fighting, said the conflict should be resolved immediately because ‘’it has so many ramifications.’’
