By Coletta Wanjohi
Sudan's situation is painfully stark as it battles an unending civil war that has spawned a humanitarian crisis of catastrophic proportions.
What began in April 2023 as a turf war involving the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has caused deaths, destruction and displacement at a scale that worsens with each passing day.
As the conflict drags on, the international community's efforts to broker peace have been largely unsuccessful, threatening to destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region.
A glimmer of hope in the gloom is the African Union Commission's February 15-16 summit in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, which has prioritised the situation in Sudan after thoroughly assessing the ground realities.
"Sudan is one of the founding members of the African Union and, as an organisation, we are putting our best foot forward to resolve the crisis there," Bankole Adeoye, the African Union commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, said on Tuesday during a panel discussion focused on the continent's third largest country by area.
African Governance Architecture, which organised the event in Addis Ababa, is an AU mechanism mandated to promote good governance.
Sanctions enforcement
While Sudan won't participate in the upcoming summit — the country was suspended from the continental bloc in June 2019 for its failure to establish a civilian-led transitional administration following the coup d'état months earlier – the sufferings of its civilian population will indeed echo in the AU headquarters.
"The effectiveness of sanctions by the African Union is often questioned due to persistent conflicts and human rights violations across the continent. The primary issue is weak enforcement," Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, an analyst and former spokesperson for the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), tells TRT Afrika.
Sheekh argues that the AU must establish a dedicated enforcement cell with the authority to monitor compliance and impose penalties if and when countries go against institutionalised expectations.
"Dialogue and diplomacy are the preferred ways to resolve conflicts peacefully because the impact of sanctions is felt the most by citizens of the target countries," he explains.
Not just Sudan's war
"The political class is heavily divided. However, we must stop the war in Sudan because it affects us all. South Sudan, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Chad are hosting thousands of refugees. A war in Sudan is also a war in the Horn of Africa," says Adeoye.
Longer the political impasse stretches, and the fighting continues, Sudan's plight risks getting worse beyond repair.
"The number of internally displaced people rose by 27% in 2024 — up from nine million to 11.5 million, with children making up over 53% of the displaced," says Wilson Almedia Adao, chairperson of the African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child.
Futile mediation efforts
Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas, chairman of the African Union High-Level Panel on Sudan, believes the continent needs to wake up to the reality that it is dealing with "the worst humanitarian crisis in the world".
Statistics justify the description. The International Organisation for Migration estimates that as of October 2024, nearly 30% of Sudan's population had been displaced. Based on various estimates, over 150,000 civilians have been killed.
"Efforts to resolve the crisis have not yielded results yet, but at the African Union, we remain committed to ending the crisis," says Dr Chambas. AU's Sudan panel includes Dr Specioza Wandira-Kazibwe, a former Vice President of Uganda, and Francisco Madeira, a former special representative of the AU chairperson in Somalia.
The panel, established by AU chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, commenced its mission on January 31, 2024.
The AU maintains that only an inter-Sudanese political dialogue, not military intervention, can end the war.
"The AU mediation efforts are guided by the roadmap for resolving the conflict in Sudan, which calls for Sudanese ownership and leadership," Dr Chambas explains.
Miguel Ntutumu Evuna Andeme, permanent representative of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea and chair of the Peace and Security Council, says preventing conflict and promoting good governance "requires a change in mindset and deep interrogation of where we went wrong".
When African heads of state and government meet over the weekend in Addis Ababa, their actions could determine how soon Sudan sees the light.
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