By Abdulwasiu Hassan
"Up NEPA" is a Nigerian expression passed down generations, succinctly capturing the irony of erratic electricity supply in an energy-rich country.
If you hear the phrase anywhere in Africa's most populous nation, it can only mean one thing — that the familiar torment of a power outage has ended, at least for the time being.
This acronym for the defunct National Electric Power Authority found its way into a 2024 documentary of the same name by director-screenwriter Ishaya Bako that chronicles the history of electricity in the West African country and the tribulations of 200 million people trying to make peace with its fickleness.
For over a week recently, about half of Nigeria was plunged into darkness after suspected terrorists vandalised transmission lines to states in the northern parts of the country.
This event not only put lives and businesses in the region on hold but also brought to the fore the reality of an everyday occurrence in some part of the country or another.
Numbers don't lie
Nigeria ranks tenth in the world in terms of proven oil reserves and eighth in proven gas reserves.
Add to this the sunlit country's potential in harnessing solar power, and there should logically be no reason why citizens have to suffer the heartburn of frequent outages.
Yet, Nigeria has struggled to provide stable electricity to its citizens for years.
The World Bank's managing director of operations, Anna Bjerde, notes that Nigeria has the largest number of people without access to electricity among all nations suffering this scourge.
"Over 85 million people — more than 4 out of 10 Nigerians— are deprived of electricity," she wrote in a recent blog post. "That Nigeria, an economic powerhouse with huge solar potential, has the largest electricity access deficit in the world is a shocking reality."
Unfulfilled promises
Generations of Nigerians have grown up reconciled to unreliable power supply despite successive governments failing to deliver on the promise of ending the problem for good.
Some of the various efforts undertaken by governments to address the problem of poor power supply across the country include investments in hydro, gas and solar power plants.
Apart from these investments, the country has witnessed various reforms aimed at making the sector more efficient.
From the privatisation of power distribution companies to the complete deregulation of the sector to attract foreign investment, nothing has fully worked.
In order to make the electricity sector more attractive to investors, the current Nigerian government has increased tariffs for consumers who consume the most electricity — categorised as Band A customers.
"For this sector to be revived, the government must spend at least US $10 billion annually over the next 10 years. Infrastructure is required for the sector's stability, but the government can't afford such expenditure," Nigerian power minister Adebayo Adelabu told a parliamentary committee.
"So, we must make this sector attractive to investors and lenders. And the only way it can be made attractive is commercial pricing," he explained.
Band A customers, who have to bear the burden of competitive pricing, argue that charging them a premium doesn't make sense when power supply has decreased.
Grid collapse
Nigeria generates about 6,000 megawatts of electricity for 200 million-odd people, which pales in comparison to South Africa's 48,000 megawatts for a population of about 60 million.
Experts attribute the frequent collapse of the country's power grid to abysmally low generation and distribution of electricity.
"Sudden generation loss can destabilise the system, leading to a grid collapse," Dr Abubakar Ibrahim, founder of Enpower Energy Consult Africa, told TRT Afrika.
He identified vandalism of transmission lines and ageing infrastructure, including transformers and other grid components, as being responsible for the morass in which the power sector finds itself in.
"Statistics show that from January 2024 to date, 66 transmission towers were vandalised across Nigeria, the most recent being the 330KV Lokoja-Gwagwalada line on November 9. Three towers were vandalised, and the aluminium conductors were carted away," Dr Ibrahim said.
The way out
While the government is waiting for investments in the power sector, is there a sliver of light in the darkness?
Bjerde believes the country must focus on its renewable energy resources without ado to get a grip on the situation.
"Governments, starting with Nigeria, need to take the lead in jumpstarting the clean energy revolution through reforms and stable policy and regulatory frameworks, supported by concessional finance that can attract large amounts of private finance," she said.
Since power generation has been deregulated in Nigeria, the regulatory hurdle is at least out of the way.
However, for power consultants like Dr Ibrahim, the solution goes beyond a clean energy revolution. "There is a need for grid modernisation, improved maintenance, and the decentralisation of power generation through renewable energy investments," he told TRT Afrika.
"Renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydro, which are abundant in the north, can relieve pressure on the national grid and improve reliability."
The 85 million-plus Nigerians without power supply will be hoping that the renewed efforts to find a sustainable solution won't end up being another shot in the dark.
