By Abdulwasiu Hassan
Nigeria's federal House of Representatives is analysing proposals that could potentially increase the number of states in the West African nation from 36 to 67, causing experts and citizens to speculate on the ramifications of the move.
Should the proposals by the National Assembly's Lower House be accepted, it would mark potentially one of the more significant administrative restructurings since Nigeria's return to civilian rule in 1999.
Amid a public buzz about the exact nature of the proposals, House of Representatives spokesperson Akin Rotimi recently clarified that reports suggesting the House was proposing the creation of new states were inaccurate.
"These private member bills do not represent the official position of the House," Rotimi said, confirming that they would need to go through a structured legislative process, as outlined in Nigeria's constitution.
The complex constitutional amendment process to create new states is embedded in Nigeria's federalist system.
Besides federal and state legislative approvals, presidential assent is mandatory for the country to expand the number of states.
"It's a massive ask to have the legislatures of all 36 existing states of the federation to sit and deliberate on the matter," Barrister Mainasara, a legal practitioner, tells TRT Afrika.
"You need two-thirds of them, or 24 states, to support the plan. Then you need a third of the National Assembly to do the same."
This rigorous process helps explain why previous attempts to carve out states didn't materialise despite numerous such proposals being tabled over the past 25 years.
Evolving systems
Nigeria's administrative divisions have evolved significantly through its post-colonial history.
The country began with three regions after independence in 1960, with divisions gradually increasing under various military and civilian administrations.
The current 36-state structure was institutionalised in 1996 during Sani Abacha's stint as the head of a military government.
Throughout this evolution, these administrative divisions have served a dual purpose, functioning as governance units while determining how national resources and revenue are allocated across the federation.
The current proposals have reignited a longstanding debate about representation, resource allocation, and minority rights within Nigeria's diverse set-up.
Several advocates for new states to be carved out of the existing entities argue that current arrangements leave certain ethnic and regional groups under-represented or marginalised in resource distribution.
Dr Mainasara Umar, whose expertise spans law, security, economy, politics and international diplomacy, sees tangible benefits in adding more states to the structure.
"This can potentially widen the scope for distribution of benefits. For those without access to governmental privileges at the federal level, the idea is to have the set-up move closer to them," he says.
Proponents of the move believe that smaller, more administrative units can enhance democratic representation and ensure more equitable development.
Less is more
Some critics argue that creating new states might serve the interests of the privileged rather than taking governance closer to citizens.
Such concerns stem from the experience of states where governance structures appear to benefit the political elite more than ordinary citizens.
Dr Usman Bello from the department of economics at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria has reservations about going ahead with any such radical plan.
"We just came out of a heated debate that almost divided the country on the issues of tax reform and cost of living. Many states are already underperforming in revenue generation. So, what is the economic rationale for creating states where these entities can't generate enough revenue to function efficiently," he tells TRT Afrika.
Dr Bello points out that the country faces stagflation – a problematic combination of economic stagnation and inflation.
He also questions if Nigeria can afford the infrastructure investments required to establish functioning administrations across 31 new states, including government buildings, civil service structures, and essential services.
Concerns about economic viability extend to existing states, many of which struggle to meet essential financial obligations, including paying minimum wages to civil servants.
The overwhelming argument is that dividing these already struggling entities would further fragment limited revenue bases, potentially creating even less viable administrative units dependent on federal allocations.
Whether the legislative process will adequately address these economic and socio-political factors remains to be seen as the proposals continue through Nigeria's lengthy constitutional amendment procedures.
The debate reflects Nigeria's ongoing struggle to balance regional aspirations, equitable development and fiscal sustainability in Africa's most populous nation.
