By Mazhun Idris
West Africa, already bristling with conflicts, climate change and pockets of political and social upheavals, may have a new problem to deal with as Russia accuses its foe, Ukraine, of opening an "African front" in their thirty-month-long war.
While Russia has its reasons for being increasingly wary of Ukraine making tactical manoeuvres beyond the established theatre of war, the more significant issue is whether West Africa is allowing itself to be dragged into this conflict at its peril.
Ukraine, backed by the US, EU, and NATO, is predictably working to garner broader support – including from Africa — to fight this high-stakes global war.
On the other hand, several West African states, especially those under military rule, are upending the Western bloc in favour of military and economic ties with Russia, China, and other friendly powers.
Russia has since accused Ukraine of opening a new ''front'' in Africa. The so-called African front in the Russia-Ukraine war assumed prominence after the diplomatic spat between Ukraine and the two central Sahelian countries of Mali and Niger, over alleged Ukrainian aid to terrorist groups in that region.
Sergey Eledinov, an independent analyst on African regional security affairs, doesn't find Ukraine's interest in the continent either new, or surprising.
"Ukraine has previously participated in special operations in Africa," he tells TRT Afrika.
War games
On July 25, Tuareg separatists attacked an army camp in the Tinzaouatene region of northern Mali, leading to three days of fighting in which 47 Malian soldiers and 84 fighters of the Russian PMC's Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) were killed.
Viral videos of the casualties and captured POWs were shared on social media, showing the rebels claiming victory against government forces and holding Ukrainian flags in celebration.
"It was obvious that external forces participated in that attack, inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian Africa Corps," says Eledinov, a retired Russian military officer.
"The operation was carefully planned, based on accurate information about the group's movements," he said.
Four days after the attack started, the Ukrainian military intelligence agency GUR's spokesperson, Andriy Yusov, was quoted by state media as making comments widely seen as confirming his country's support for terrorists in Mali despite knowing that the West African country was an ally of Russia.
Yusov told the public broadcaster Suspilne that the separatists had "received all the necessary information they needed" to attack Malian troops.
Ukraine owning up to passing information to terrorists for an operation against what Kyiv calls "Russian war criminals" is seen as an unabashed declaration of intent.
Diplomatic reprisal
Although the revelation did not elaborate on how and when such military coordination was established between Ukraine and Malian separatists, Yusov's remarks prompted a series of explosive diplomatic spats.
On August 3, Mali's neighbour, Senegal, summoned Ukraine's ambassador to Dakar, Yurii Pyvovarov, over a video published on Facebook, in which the envoy is heard saying that Kyiv provided "unequivocal support for the terrorist attack" in Mali.
The Ukrainian embassy in Senegal, which also covers Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia, had posted the video.
"If the information released by Ukraine is to be believed, Ukraine's action could be considered part of a common counteraction programme against Russia (on the African continent)," Eledinov tells TRT Afrika.
Kyiv has in the past accused Russia of recruiting prisoners from its jails to support its war with Ukraine.
Conversely, Niger, Mali and many other West African countries describe Ukraine's actions as a blatant violation of Malian sovereignty and security.
On August 4, Mali broke off diplomatic ties with Ukraine, accusing it of aiding terrorists, which the Malian army has been fighting to dislodge from its borders.
A Malian government spokesperson, Amadou Abdramane, announced in a televised statement that his country would ask the UN Security Council to debate Ukraine's "aggression".
Ukraine's foreign ministry said Mali cut ties "without conducting a thorough examination of the facts and circumstances...and without providing any evidence of Ukraine's involvement."
Kyiv criticised Mali's move as "short-sighted and hasty".
On August 6, Niger also announced the cutting of diplomatic relations with Ukraine "with immediate effect", also accusing Kyiv of “supporting terrorist groups" in Mali.
Two days later, a statement from the Ukrainian foreign ministry denounced Niger’s accusations, calling them "groundless and untrue". It also dismissed allegations of "supporting international terrorism" and "violating the UN charter and international law".
Cold war reincarnated
The frightening reality of the active interference of foreign countries in West Africa, all in the name of geopolitical rivalries in faraway Europe, has brought an ugly dimension to African conflicts.
Its seems the general thought in Kyiv is that Ukraine needs to create a common anti-Russian front.
Analysts believe a military entry by both Ukraine and Russia into the Sahel will inevitably lead to accelerated militarisation of the region and the continued misery of the local population.
Eledinov sees the looming shadow of the US and France as the elephant in the room, labelling "Ukraine's participation in countering the expansion of Russia" as being in the interest of the two Western powers.
"Don't forget that the Russia-Ukraine war is also an ideological confrontation in the mould of a geopolitical subterfuge," he tells TRT Afrika.
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