By Emmanuel Onyango
As countries continue to evacuate their diplomats and citizens to safety from Sudan, neighbouring countries are increasingly nervous of a possible worsening of the power battle between the regular army and the paramilitary group, Rapid Support Forces.
The airlifts are a sign that there is no political solution in sight in the short term after repeated efforts to broker a permanent ceasefire failed, as reports indicate soaring food prices, and the UN chief Antonio Guterres has warned of a crisis engulfing the whole region.
Sudan shares boundaries with seven countries - Egypt, Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Central African Republic (CAR) and South Sudan – and there are fears the conflict could feed into longstanding troubles in the region.
The neighbours have been offering land routes to allow other countries pull out their citizens.
But the streams of vehicles are also carrying tens of thousands of Sudanese refugees who are fleeing the conflict and Mr Guterres has warned of a crisis that could engulf the whole region.
In the past days, an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 people have fled the conflict in Sudan's western Darfur region to seek refuge in neighbouring Chad, according to UNHCR.
Eastern Chad already hosts over 400,000 refugees from Sudan and the new arrivals are placing additional strain on public services, it said.
Earlier last week Chad also said it “stopped and disarmed” more than 300 Sudanese soldiers who had fled into its territory.
The proliferation of small arms and presence of militants could potentially inflame tensions in a country where delayed elections are due in October 2024.
"Whenever there is a refugee crisis we also get a security crisis and that is going to strain the regional security and strain the logistics of providing humanitarian aid in a region struggling with refugees," said Edgar Githua, an international affairs expert.
The geopolitical interests of Egypt and Ethiopia in the conflict are more immediate, each looking for an eventual ally in the developing water war on usage of the waters of the Nile, Africa’s longest river, according to Githua.
Ethiopia’s decision to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance will affect water levels downstream and cause shortages in Egyptian cities and dams.
"Egypt is keen on an ally {in Sudan} to help it contain Ethiopia on the use of the Nile waters and vice versa," said Mr Githua.
On Thursday Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a warning against “parties that work in incitement and drive a wedge between it {Ethiopia} and the brotherly Sudan”.
Neighbouring landlocked South Sudan has the third largest oil reserves in Africa and exports its crude oil through Sudan’s pipelines and Red Sea ports.
A prolonged conflict in Sudan would affect desperately needed oil revenues that fund a big chunk of its national budget.
Its breakaway from Sudan in 2011 is yet to deliver complete normalcy with alleged territorial violations in the oil-rich Abyei province still at play.
The Libyan National Army led by warlord Khalifa Haftar has said it's ready to play a mediating role in the conflict in Sudan.
Haftar has denied taking sides in the conflict following reports that he sent military supplies to the RSF.
The eight-nation eastern Africa bloc known as IGAD has proposed but so far failed to broker peace and there are growing concerns that prolonged fighting in Sudan could further complicate the current security in the region.
