By Omar Abdel-Razek
The continuing military escalation in the Red Sea poses profound consequences for the African continent's economy, security, and environment.
While a handful of African countries may stand to benefit, the majority are poised to bear the brunt of high inflation and environmental degradation.
Out of the eight countries adjacent to the Red Sea, five are African. However, the current media and political treatment of the crisis ignores the losses incurred by Africa.
Instead, the attention is predominantly fixated on the potential economic repercussions for major economies and Western consumers resulting from the disruption of shipping in one of the world’s busiest waterways.
The crisis started in November when Yemen’s Houthis began targeting large vessels and cargo ships traversing the 32km-wide Bab-al-Mandab strait in response to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza.
Hundreds of cargo ships and oil tankers were forced to reroute around Africa, adding 12 days and 6000 kilometers to their journeys on average.
This results in additional fuel and insurance premiums costs, which will inevitably be taken from the consumers' pockets and pose a threat to the global economy.
It's estimated that up to 15% of the global trade, worth around $1 trillion goes through the Red Sea, passing through Egypt’s Suez Canal.
This makes Egypt's position amidst this crisis particularly intricate, given that the Red Sea trade constitutes a primary source of the country’s national income.
In 2023 alone, revenues from the Suez Canal contributed over $10 billion to Egypt's economy.
However, recent data from the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reveals a staggering 42% decline in revenue over the past two months, a trend that could worsen if the military escalation persists.
The timing couldn't be more critical for Egypt, the most populous country in the Middle East and one of Africa's largest economies.
Egypt's economy grapples with severe shortages of hard currency essential for servicing its substantial import bill and escalating foreign debts that have exceeded $160 billion.
Red Sea Security:
But the dilemma for Egypt in this context extends beyond economic concerns.
Historically, the Red Sea has held significant strategic importance for Egypt’s security dating back to Queen Hatshepsut's era,
when she dispatched a pivotal trade expedition to the land of Punt (likely modern-day Somalia) between 1479-1458 BCE.
During the October War in 1973, Egypt blocked the Bab al-Mandab strait to impede military supplies to Israel.
However, Cairo is currently refraining from endorsing Western military actions against the Houthis, namely the US-led Operation 'Prosperity Guardians', to avoid appearing indifferent to the root cause of the conflict—the War on Gaza.
Other Red Sea African countries face their challenges. Sudan grapples with internal civil strife, while Somalia contends with its recent crisis with Ethiopia following the latter signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with breakaway Somaliland.
The MoU grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on 20 kms of coastline, in exchange for official recognition of Somaliland's independence.
Ethiopia's bid has encountered opposition from various countries, including Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia, further complicating Red Sea security.
The current situation and its repercussions underscore the absence of Red Sea-bordering African countries from any maritime security arrangements concerning this vital waterway.
For almost three decades, the security of the Red Sea has been beyond the control of its African nations (Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti), prompting numerous countries to vie for control of its ports for military and commercial purposes.
The current crisis might exacerbate this, with anticipation that the international community may devise a new approach to address military threats in the Red Sea, akin to the response following the emergence of piracy in Somalia, potentially leading to increased foreign presence and legal frameworks in the region.
Few gains, and many losses
The rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope could offer temporary benefits to some ports in South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius, according to shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S.
However, experts warn that these gains may be outweighed by the broader toll Africa is likely to face.
Earnest & Young projects a potential 0.7% increase in global inflation in 2024 if disruptions persist, impacting African imports and debt payments.
East African nations, heavily reliant on grain and commodity imports from the EU and Black Sea countries, are expected to bear a significant burden, with freight costs potentially rising by around $8 per tonne, as noted by the International Grains Council.
Africa's losses from the Red Sea conflict may extend beyond economic tolls to include environmental damage.
The risk of oil spills resulting from potential strikes on oil tankers during military actions poses a significant threat to marine life in the region.
The Red Sea's reef ecosystem, vital for the food security and livelihoods of 28 million coastal inhabitants, is at risk.
The increasing number of large vessels and oil tankers navigating around Africa necessitates stops for bunkering or refuelling.
However, most African ports are not well equipped to handle such massive ships and are grappling with congestion and poor facilities, as reported by Reuters news agency.
Consequently, this situation heightens the likelihood of accidents such as wrecks or oil spills.
The ramifications of the Red Sea crisis extend beyond adjacent countries to impact the entire continent.
The African Union should adopt a more active diplomatic role to mitigate these risks, as the food and environmental security of Africa should not be solely determined by major and regional powers.
The author, Omar Abdel-Razek, is a Sociologist and Former Editor at BBC Arabic.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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