By Edgar Githua
Sudan has been embroiled in a bitter conflict for more than a year. Two rival military factions that had earlier worked together began fighting for power in 2023 leading to a civil war.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the former Janjaweed leader, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, fell out leading to conflict that began on 15 April 2023.
At the heart of the conflict was the fallout from a power sharing plan between General al-Burhan and General Dagalo. These two have worked together in the ouster of former President Omar al Bashir in 2019.
The main bone of contention was the planned unification of the SAF and RSF forces under a unified command. In particular, the RSF was expected to fold and integrate with the main Sudan army, an action that Dagalo did not feel comfortable undertaking due to alleged loss of power.
After jointly dissolving a civilian government in 2021, Burhan and Dagalo never seemed to fit in together and friction broke out. The crisis has in the past one year led to the death of an estimated fourteen thousand people lives and the displacement of millions of others from their homes.
Failed ceasefires
There have been numerous attempts at restoring peace in Sudan. However, these attempts have failed due to many competing interests in regional, and global politics.
Competing foreign vested interests have complicated attempts at reaching a peaceful resolution. At the heart of this competition is the need to control or have great influence over Sudan due to its strategic position within the African continent.
Iran and Russia see Sudan as a launchpad for their influence on the African continent and have been pushing General Burhan for concessions to allow them build naval bases on the Red Sea.
This is a scenario that has seen a coalition of Western nations namely the US and Britain join forces with Saudi Arabia to form the “Quad” coalition that has been spearheading peace talks between the warring factions.
Several peace processes have been mounted and put in place in a bid to bring the conflict in Sudan to an end. Spearheaded by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and IGAD, the agreements signed have been breached as both sides continued military actions.
This lack of peace can be attributed to the lack of good faith on the leadership of the warring parties in the conflict.
Impact of the war
The conflict in Sudan has created a large and complex humanitarian crisis in the country and region. This has led to the displacement of people, food insecurity and lack of basic services and amenities.
A refugee crisis in the region has also developed. An approximate eight million people are internally displaced, living in bad conditions lacking basic sanitation and other essential services.
Another estimated two million people have fled the country and are currently in Chad, South Sudan, Libya, and Egypt, creating another socio-economic crisis in those countries.
Food insecurity is the other major crisis that Sudan faces in the current conflict with the crisis hitting the country’s food basket in the Al Jazirah state.
The World Food Program (WFP) reports that approximately 18 million people in Sudan face starvation.
The problem is compounded by drought in neighbouring South Sudan, and Chad where numerous Sudanese refugees have sought refuge.
The situation has been dire with aid agencies appealing for assistance on an unprecedented scale.
The developing humanitarian crisis in Sudan has been characterised by widespread human rights abuses, including attacks on civilians, sexual violence, and forced displacement.
The both RSF fighters and the SAF have been accused by international rights groups and the UN of committing atrocities including possible serious war crimes and targeted killings. This paints a very grim picture of the evolving conflict.
Way out
The Sudan conflict has been complicated by the presence of external players with vested interests in the region. Russian interests in the gold trade in Sudan coupled with business dealings with General Dagalo has fuelled the conflict.
General Halifa Khafta from Libya has also allegedly supported Dagalo further emboldening him. On the other hand, Egypt has allegedly backed General Burha.
For peace to prevail in Sudan, the international community needs to sanction the external backers who have been lending support to these main players.
The withdrawal of external actors will encourage the protagonists to sit down and chart a way forward. This should be followed up with concerted diplomatic effort to get the protagonists to end the conflict.
The International community also needs to do more to help tackle the dire humanitarian crisis that has been developing in the country.
More aid needs to be channelled to the affected communities and regions not only within Sudan but in the entire region.
Timely food aid, medication and other basic amenities needs to be channelled to the affected persons in a bid to not only preserve their dignity but also save lives.
The author, Dr. Edgar Githua, is an international relations, peace and conflict researcher, and security analyst at Strathmore University in Kenya.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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