SA elections: What happens if ANC loses majority?

For the first time in South Africa – since the African National Congress party (ANC) came to power in 1994 – there is a likelihood that the country's government would be formed through a coalition arrangement.

In South Africa, the people vote for members of the National Assembly, who thereafter vote for president within a month of the general election. This year's election is scheduled for May 29.

There are 400 members of the South African National Assembly, and the political party with at least 201 seats – which is more than 50% of parliamentary seats – becomes the majority party.

But opinion polls – as recent as April 2024 – show that ANC party is likely to lose its majority in parliament for the first time ever.

Survey results

An Ipsos poll released on April 26 suggested that ANC would get 40% of the vote in the upcoming elections, followed by opposition party the Democratic Alliance at nearly 22%.

The Economic Freedom Fighters party (EFF) would come third with 11.5% of the vote, and former President Jacob Zuma's new party uMkhonto weSizwe would get slightly over 8% of the vote.

Past opinion polls, including one conducted by Johannesburg-based organisation SABI Strategy Group, estimated that ANC would get 39% of the vote, citing dissatisfaction over economic stagnation and unemployment.

If the opinion polls are anything to go by, then ANC, which still enjoys the largest support nonetheless, would be forced to enter into a coalition agreement with other political parties in order to form government.

Constitution

Now, here is the thing. South Africa's constitution does not contain provisions that regulate how a coalition is formed or run.

This essentially means that should ANC fall short of being the majority party in parliament, it would be forced to court the other political parties into a mutually beneficial arrangement.

For instance, ANC might offer a few cabinet positions to the other parties in exchange for support. And support here means a presidential vote, and passing government-sponsored bills.

Remember, a presidential candidate needs slightly over half the parliamentary votes to win in the first round, failure of which, another round of elections is held minus the candidate that got the least votes previously.

Zuma back on the ballot

This process gets repeated until one candidate gets at least 201 votes.

ANC's presidential candidate is the incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa, while the Democratic Alliance's candidate is its leader John Steenhuisen.

The Economic Freedom Fighters is expected to field Julius Malema, while uMkhonto weSizwe is expected to front Jacob Zuma.

In the parliamentary and local elections, about 70 political parties will field candidates. Nearly 28 million South African voters would choose 887 leaders from a pool of nearly 14,900 candidates.

ANC has always been in charge, but with the projected voting pattern, it might just need to adapt to power-sharing and compromise. But only time will tell.