By Sylvia Chebet
Kenyan President William Ruto’s decision to decline from signing into law a bill proposing new taxes has significantly diffused tensions across the country, but may have dented his prestige, according to analysts.
For Ruto’s administration, the additional taxes were necessary to shore up revenue by nearly $2.7 billion, in order to pay interest on national debt, reduce the budget deficit and keep the government running.
Protesters however saw them as punitive, since the high cost of living already makes it hard to get by, and were infuriated by parliament’s decision to pass the bill. They stormed the National Assembly, a protected area, setting ablaze a section of the building while lawmakers fled, with some escaping in ambulances.
The president’s dramatic change of tune on Wednesday, over the bill that he committed himself to, was largely unexpected but constitutional lawyers say it was necessary after the protests spiralled into violence.
The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, KNHRC says at least 22 people died, a majority of whom were killed when protesters stormed parliament on Tuesday.
“Politically, it was looking damaging for him to continue along that route,” Kenyan lawyer Charles Kanjama told TRT AFRIKA, adding: “There is a saying that a wise man knows when to change his mind.”
The president acknowledged that the bill caused “widespread dissatisfaction” and he had listened to the aggrieved Kenyans.
“I concede”
"I concede and therefore I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn," Ruto said during his address to the nation on Wednesday.
“Perhaps this is an olive branch,” Bobby Mkangi, a Kenyan constitutional lawyer observes, noting: “Hardly do you ever hear a politician, let alone a president, say I concede.”
According to constitutional experts, it is rare for legislative measures not to sail through without opposition but leaders instinctively find ways to prevail.
“They think in terms of political arithmetic; can I convince a sufficient number of parliamentarians to support this bill? So, the feeling is that he (Ruto) had not calculated properly the question of the deep public sentiment against those measures,” Kanjama reckons.
“There are probably people within his administration who may have felt they needed to push this bill and this episode to the hilt so that government, going forward, doesn't seem weak,” Mkangi observes.
The bill sailed through in parliament on Tuesday, “but the public mood had turned strongly against it and it had become identified with the person of the president,” Kanjama added.
Ruto, in his presidential campaign, identified himself as a “hustler”, vowing to implement policies to relieve economic pain by putting more money in Kenyans’ pockets. But the so-called “hustlers” who supported him, see his administration’s tax policies as a betrayal.
Angry protesters started calling for his resignation besides demanding a rejection of the contentious bill.
"The people have spoken," Ruto said on Wednesday, as he announced that he would not assent to the bill.
"I will be proposing an engagement with the young people of our nation, our sons and daughters, for us to listen to them," he said, in a marked shift from his late-night address on Tuesday when he described some of the protesters as "criminals."
Some of the youth have taken the president’s pronouncement as a mark of achievement for their pushback, but others remain unsatisfied and are sceptical of his promises.
“The bill is withdrawn but are you going to bring everyone that died back alive?” Hanifa, one of the protesters who was briefly arrested during the ‘Occupy Parliament’ protests, wrote on X.
Daughter of Isiolo, another protestor also posted on X, “President Ruto, withdrawing the Finance Bill is just a small step, but i not enough to solve our problems. We need comprehensive reforms to fix Kenya's deeper issues.”
“I think there's a sense in which street protests can become a monster which keeps thirsting for more victims,” Kanjama says, characterising crowd mentality.
“There are people who have concretised their anger against the regime … and it will not just switch off all of a sudden.”
Mkangi believes to regain their trust and confidence, the next few months “must be heavy” on prudence and restraint for the government.
“We should not see many trips, especially foreign going forward, very long motorcades or convoys, the sort of fashion shows on social media, the showing off by scores in the political class, among other measures.”
The Ruto administration now also faces a challenging task of improving the country’s economic situation, reducing inflation and creating employment and other income-earning opportunities for thousands of jobless youth in order to restore the broken social contract with them.
Despite the rejection of additional taxes, pundits say the government still has the opportunity to creatively collect more revenue than it is currently doing.
“We can actually increase our tax collection if we seal the revenue leakage from 14% to even 20% of GDP,” Mkangi believes.
“If the Kenya Revenue Authority focuses on enforcement with the current tax rates, they would actually seal the gaps that are being created by the rejected finance bill.
Inherited problems
Analysts reckon some of the issues fuelling public anger, including corruption and mismanagement of public funds, stem not just from Ruto’s administration but go back several regimes before him.
“This finance Bill, was a trigger, or is where the ire from Kenyans came to crystallise,”Mkangi observes.
“That's why the question was, why are you collecting more money from us when we can't see anything that comes from that collection?”
While accountability issues have not been dealt with effectively, Ruto’s administration faced a challenge of servicing a debt of 11 trillion shillings ($ 86 billion), equal to roughly 70% of the country’s GDP. Kenya’s debt burden has been snowballing even before Ruto took office in September 2022.
Kanjama believes that Ruto may have been invested in the bill “not merely because he likes taxing Kenyans, but because he was convinced that it was the best way to try and stabilise the economic situation of the country.”
Engaging the youth
Contrary to all the previous protests in Kenya, the Gen-Z protests, which started on June 18 after the finance minister tabled the bill in parliament, have largely been organic and mobilised through social media.
When they came out to protest, they were not led by a leader, but by a common course, devoid of any political, tribal or religious affiliations.
“In as much as it's a leaderless movement or episode, it is not radarless. There are reasons why these Kenyan youth are out there, and I think that is what is leading them,” Mkangi points out.
Then begs the question, how will the president and his administration go about engaging the leaderless youth?
It will be a delicate process, and pundits warn against setting the terms for them. “It's not for us to decide for the youth again,” Mkangi says.
Kanjama notes, one sure way to engage the youth would be to “go where they are” – on social media.
“They were mobilising themselves on social media, on Twitter and TikTok in particular, so use the tools that the youth are using.”
“They are still Gen Z. You engage some and the message spreads to the others. So, you don't have to get all the youth in one stadium.”
Most importantly, it is what the president and his administration will do henceforth that will show his commitment to the austerity measures and dialogue he promised on Wednesday.
“I think if those follow through, then it will be seen by Kenyans that he was genuine and authentic, and therefore his decision to retreat will not particularly be perceived as a sign of weakness, but rather tactical aimed at saving the country from falling into anarchy. Mkangi believes”
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