By Mazhun Idris
A week into the military coup that led to the fall of the elected government in Niger, the international community is throwing its weight behind ECOWAS, for a possible use of force to reverse the putsch.
Leaders of the regional bloc ECOWAS met for an emergency summit in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, and released a communique that called for the immediate return of constitutional order. In the event of the junta sticking to its guns, it warned of reprisal that may entail use of force.
As the ECOWAS leadership waits to see whether the series of sanctions against Niger extracts capitulation or makes the junta more defiant, the defence chiefs of member countries have been directed to meet immediately and strategise on possible military action.
Nigeria's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is the chairperson of ECOWAS, has already had telephonic interactions with world leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres and US Vice President Kamala Harris, reflecting potential support for the regional bloc.
But beneath the veneer of a concerted effort to restore democracy in Niger, not everything seems hunky dory.
Military-led neighbours
In what is being seen as a telling diplomatic blow to ECOWAS, the military-led governments in the neighbouring countries of Mali and Burkina Faso have warned against possible military intervention in Niger.
Both countries have spelt out that any intervention to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger would be considered a "declaration of war" against them.
Dr Kabir Adamu, a security and intelligence analyst focused on the West African sub-region and managing director of Beacon Consulting, sees such threats as par for the course.
"The statement by Burkina Faso and Mali does not come as a surprise because they are also military juntas and isolated, just as Niger is now. It's not unusual that coalitions like that emerge from the chaos," he told TRT Afrika.
But what exactly emboldens these two French-speaking countries to stand up to the regional bloc?
Dr Joseph Ochogwu, chief executive officer at Nigeria's Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution in Abuja, sees the activities of "external actors and the support of security contractors like the Russian Wagner Group in the Sahel" as a factor in the crisis.
"The governments in Mali and Burkina are already in a quagmire from where there is no way back or forth for them. What's left for them is to look for allies, and indulge in populist playing on the pretext of Africanist resistance to post-colonialism," he told TRT Afrika.
Dr Adamu presents a similar hypothesis. "The juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso are majorly banking on their relationship with the Russian security network at the moment. This is in spite of the fact that more than half of their countries are in the hands of non-state armed groups."
Wave of political changes
In recent years, the West African region has seen several military takeovers. The first of the recent coups in Mali happened in August 2020, and then another one in May 2021. Then Guinea had its own in September 2021, followed by Burkina Faso in January this year.
Fearing contagion, ECOWAS imposed tough trade and economic sanctions against the new military regimes, intended to prevent any more coups d'état in the region.
It was only in July 2022 that the regional bloc lifted economic and financial sanctions against Mali after accepting the military government's commitment to hold elections in February 2024.
Dr Adamu warns that the ECOWAS region is getting caught in the fragile geopolitics of Western countries versus Russia.
"We will continue to see these two power blocs using economic diplomacy, among other influences, to gain the upper hand in our regional politics and economy," he said. "Africa needs to fight the renewed scramble for its natural resources by superpowers.’’
The coup in Niger, the ensuing demonstrations supporting it and the latent signs of resistance to ECOWAS intervention may have stemmed from the fact that the bloc seems to be singling out the country in terms of proposed military action to restore democracy.
Although the bloc had imposed similar sanctions on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea following coups in those countries, ECOWAS did not eventually opt for forceful intervention to reinstate the ousted leaders.
The action was largely restricted to politically isolating the military governments. The possible explanations for this are that Niger has been a key ally in Western campaigns against terrorism in the Sahel.
Cost of force
In the midst of the strongly-worded warnings by ECOWAS on defending democracy, and zero tolerance to renewed political destabilisation in West Africa, some experts see critical reasons to caution about the potential costs of any intervention beyond shuttle diplomacy.
Analysts have warned that undesired outcomes would more than likely follow any intervention in the form of political conflicts and humanitarian costs, based on reports about supporters of the junta organising rallies in Niger’s capital Niamey.
“The Niger junta is already whipping up a frenzy among the citizenry by capitalising on the raging anti-French sentiment, and weaponising it further into anti-external intervention," Dr Adamu explained.
"This trend portends a serious risk of citizens turning against any geopolitical effort to safeguard democracy in the country. If they see this as a kind of external aggression, the backlash will be difficult to manage," he said.
Time for discretion
Experts advise ECOWAS to tread carefully as it tries to prevent more military takeovers in the region – basically, not lose legitimacy and mass support.
But as Dr Ochogwu points out, it looks a lot uglier in reality. "It's unfortunate that the ECOWAS sub-region is facing military takeovers of democratic regimes — Mali, Chad, and now Niger. These ugly developments don't augur well for the entire continent," he said.
He recommends quick diplomatic actions to overcome the challenges confronting a region with a troubled history.
"Most of the diplomatic protocols of both the African Union and ECOWAS have been abused over time in terms of democracy, governance, justice, and conflict management," he added.
More than anything else, ECOWAS needs to win the diplomacy game, as well as garner the support of the masses in Niger.
For this to happen, Dr Ochogwu advises the bloc to invest more in effective communication to counter pro-coup propaganda in the public space.
