By Coletta Wanjohi
The African Union's ultimatum to those at the vanguard of the military coup in Niger to return to their barracks and hand back the reins to the elected leadership within two weeks mirrors its position as the continent's sentinel against any threat to its unity, integrity and democracy.
The African Union had made a declaration in April 2022 on unconstitutional changes in government in parts of the continent, noting that this "should not be entertained or justified in any circumstances".
The organisation iterated that it "continues to strongly condemn all forms of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa, coup perpetrators, and manipulation of democratic processes".
The declaration came after military takeovers in Chad, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Guinea, all of which remain under military rule. Much to the consternation of the African Union, Niger has joined the list.
Recurrence of coups
A coup, or an unconstitutional change of government, could happen for many reasons. The commonest one is a military plot to overthrow the elected dispensation and scuttle democratic processes.
Mahamat Deby, a military officer, took over the leadership of Chad in April 2021 immediately after the death of his father, the then president Idris Deby. In August 2020 and May 2021, Mali suffered back-to-back coups.
This was followed by a military takeover in Guinea in September 2021, and Burkina Faso in January 2022. Since January 2021, when the military toppled the government of then President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan hasn't returned to civilian governance.
The African Union has suspended Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Guinea from all activities involving the organisation until they return to a civilian administrative set-up through elections.
Term limits
In Niger, a group of soldiers assigned to guard the deposed President, Mohamed Bazoum, detained him and his family on July 26 to kick-start a coup that culminated in the junta leader, Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, declaring himself the new head of state.
Until the forced takeover by soldiers loyal to him, Tchiani headed Niger's presidential guard.
Regression in the process of democratisation in the continent, flagrant violation of constitutional norms, and lack of respect for the democratic process are the common triggers for most coups, according to analysts. The militaries also often cite insecurity and economic problems for their actions.
The African Union notes that there has been "an increase in the number of member states that manipulate democratic processes to modify and eliminate constitutional term limits, while others resist efforts to institute term limits in their Constitutions".
It acknowledges external interference as another factor, issuing a warning to "those who finance coups, foreign fighters and mercenaries in member states".
Lust for power in the upper echelons of the military also acts as a trigger for some to incite their ranks to attempt a coup.
Sanctions
When a coup occurs in a member country, the African Union either directly or through its regional blocs can impose sanctions in a bid to coerce the perpetrators of the illegal takeover to hand back power to the civilian administration.
The African Union states that "sanctions are imposed to correct and not to harm the civilians of a non-complying member state". According to the charter, these curbs are to be gradually lifted, based on the progress made in restoring democratic order.
At the continental level, sanctions include suspension of the country from activities of the African Union.
Regional blocs can also decide to impose economic and financial sanctions. Travel bans are also imposed on government officials and senior leaders from those countries.
In the case of Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, has suspended these countries from accessing all benefits and, at some point, also imposed border closures.
ECOWAS has also condemned the latest coup in Niger and called for the restoration of constitutional order.
But some analysts believe the regional blocs have done little to prevent coups in Africa and have made little progress in convincing coup leaders to return their countries to democracy.
This situation is seen as another factor why the militaries appear undeterred. However, another challenge the organisations contend with is the issue of sovereignty of individual countries which means there are limits to what they can do even though they have been able to sanction coup leaders.
Since military rule continues in these countries, the effectiveness of sanctions is hotly debated. For its part, the African Union believes that what counts is the underlying message.
Alongside sanctions, the regional blocs and entities such as the African Union Commission maintain their efforts to convince the military rulers to set and respect a transition period to civilian rule.
In Sudan, the date fixed for the country to return to civilian rule through elections has been obliterated by a fresh conflict among the military leadership of the country since April 15 this year.
And as it strives to push the four other countries to return to democracy, the African Union now has to contend with a fifth challenge – the coup in Niger.
