For three decades, the African National Congress (ANC) has ruled South Africa with unchallenged dominance.
But that grip on power could face the biggest challenge yet in the general election set for May 29, according to experts and opinion polls.
At the very top of a range of factors in this potential shift is the emergence of a powerful rival, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, backed by former President Jacob Zuma.
Zuma, 81, led the ANC and the country for nearly a decade, but announced last December he would not vote or campaign for the party in the 2024 elections.
Turning point
In January, the ANC suspended Zuma, a party member for 60 years, another sign of the growing rift between him and current President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Now, MK Party is in a position where it could cut by half ANC's support in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa's most populous province, according to a recent study by the Social Research Foundation think tank.
Analysts believe the May elections could be a turning point for South Africa, where the ANC could be left without a majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.
"This year's election comes at a time when the ANC is facing an array of challenges," Edwin Yingi, a political analyst in South Africa, said.
Losing ground
"There are critical issues like youth unemployment, which is already soaring and likely to rise further."
While opinion polls do show the ANC losing ground, it is yet to be seen whether it loses majority in parliament and is forced to form a coalition, he said.
"We don't expect the two major opposition parties – the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – to get much more than what they had in the 2019," Yingi told Anadolu.
"However, the MK Party is a different story. That is going to eat into the ANC support base."
Liberated South Africans
The ANC, which liberated South Africans from white minority rule and racial segregation, has secured more than 60% in all elections since 1994, barring 2019, when its parliamentary share dipped to 57.5%.
It currently has 230 seats in the 400-member National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, where members are elected by voters on a party-list proportional representation system.
The DA has 84 seats, the leftist EFF has 44, while other smaller parties have either ten or less seats.
Kealeboga Maphunye, a professor of politics at the University of South Africa, believes it is unlikely for the MK Party alone to end ANC's dominance.
Dominance 'could end'
"However, collectively with other newly formed parties and the usual opposition, the DA, EFF and others, the ANC’s dominance could end in the 2024 elections," he told Anadolu.
He said the ANC's standing has taken a hit due to the "worrisome backsliding in South Africa in the past ten to 15 years," pointing to issues such as "nascent corruption and mismanagement."
Another problem has been the appointment of ANC members to public posts, which has led to South Africa being downgraded by international rating agencies like Moody's and S&P Global.
Both Yingi and Maphunye agreed that rolling power blackouts will also be a major election topic as South Africa currently faces one of its worst crises in decades, with outages lasting several hours a day.
Unemployment
The power cuts have spillover effects on businesses and the economy, leading to negative growth in some instances, Maphunye explained.
"Other burning issues include youth and overall unemployment, poverty, social inequalities, crime and corruption. The last two have made life very difficult for many South Africans. They are very angry and they've been pushed into the hands of the newly formed political parties," he said.
South Africa, a country of some 62 million people, currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, standing at 32.1%, according to official government figures released this month.
Yingi also emphasised the problem of "crumbling infrastructure."
Ramaphosa's pledges
"The roads are bad, the water infrastructure is decaying, and it's all because of lack of government maintenance and investment," he said.
As for the crime rate, he said it is "going out of hand" as official data shows gun violence, gender-based violence and sexual offenses are all soaring.
While launching the ANC manifesto in Durban a few days ago, President Ramaphosa tried to present a rosier picture for the future, promising low-cost housing projects and dedicated efforts to address the water and electricity crises.
"Today, 60% of our budget is dedicated to improving the lives of our people. We will do more to consolidate and improve services for our people so no one is left behind," he said, while also throwing in some pledges to fight corruption and vet all public officials.
Ramaphosa's words drew applause from his supporters, and skepticism from his opponents and their voters – an indicator of just how divided South Africa is ahead of its crucial May elections.
➤Click here to follow our WhatsApp channel for more stories.
