By Firmain Eric Mbadinga
The disaster movie genre thrives on invoking the fear of a dystopian future plagued by crises that would seem too dark and dreary to be conceivable in the present.
In the realm of climate change, such is the starkness of reality that human imagination need no longer spin yarns about distant disasters. It's here and now.
The year 2023, the hottest on record, brought along a host of consequences ranging from devastating forest fires to drought across the globe.
In the US state of California, the mercury hit an astounding 54°C last year. Morocco in North Africa recorded 50°C.
Kambamboli Tankoano, a native of Burkina Faso, has been growing soya and rearing livestock for over 15 years in Ountandeni village, a part of the sprawling Diapangou commune in the east.
For this unabashed lover of the land, erratic weather patterns portend a disaster whose scale he is fearful of comprehending.
As the director of a cooperative of local breeders and farmers, he keeps himself abreast of scientific information about how increased heat caused by the El Niño phenomenon has devastated pastoral activity.
"We can already see and feel the shortening of seasons, forced modification of our crop cycles, the increase in phytosanitary diseases, and the general increase in heat and water stress," he tells TRT Afrika.
Tankoano also points to a drop in productivity from July 2023 onwards, which, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), corresponds to the onset of the El Niño effect.
"We have identified frequent pockets of drought, marked by the early drying up of watering points used to water our fields or feed our livestock. There are also limitations on off-season production and loss of natural resources. Livestock rearing has also been affected by the limitation of green grazing areas," he explains.
Varied impact
Ndague Diogoul, a researcher at the Oceanographic Research Centre of Dakar-Thiaroyein in Senegal, says the El Niño effect varies considerably from one region to another.
In the Sahel region of Africa, for example, the change is characterised by a semi-arid climate. Altered weather patterns can also intensify periods of drought, jeopardising water supply for irrigation and local populations' needs.
Diogoul notes that limited water resources of the Sahelian region, of which Burkina Faso is a part, are coming under increased pressure and creating multiple challenges for the agro-pastoral sector.
"Dry conditions can alter the quality of pastures, creating challenges for livestock-dependent communities. In addition, increased variability in crop yields can trigger food insecurity. There could be flash floods in some areas," she tells TRT Afrika.
Water scarcity
According to the environment portal Planète Mer, "one of the first manifestations of climate change in the oceans is the increase in water temperature".
"Added to this is the introduction of invasive species that can compete with native species," says Diogoul of the marine effects of the El Niño phenomenon. "Recent studies have also shown that sardinella fish are moving northwards due to warmer waters, thereby altering the fishing map in this region."
As reported by various scientific studies, the rise in temperature recorded in 2023 was felt worldwide.
Central Africa is no exception. Boris Efoua Aba'a, a cattle farmer in Libreville, Gabon, faced numerous anomalies on his farm due to the unusual weather. "We realised that as the heat increased in the dry season, which usually lasts three months (from June to August), the pattern stretched to a little over four months," he says.
Water scarcity is still causing problems in this rural belt. "We have wells drying up, making survival difficult for our animals. In livestock farming, water is as important as fodder," says Boris.
The quality and quantity of meat these farms produce are declining, directly impacting income.
Grim prognosis
Countries such as Gabon are part of the worldwide study of the effects of El Niño. These studies project more difficult times ahead as changes in rainfall patterns affect the availability of water and, thereby, agriculture.
"More severe weather conditions also increase the risk of forest fires, impacting biodiversity and ecosystems," says Diogoul.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations has drafted a plan to reduce the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on farmers and food security among the world's most vulnerable populations.
The US $160 million project aims to repair river banks to prevent flooding, help fishermen protect their boats before a storm, distribute seeds more resistant to drought, and stockpile veterinary medicines in advance. Another $125 million is required to fund the work.
The FAO has prioritised actions in 34 countries in Africa, Asia, the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, aiming to benefit 4.8 million people by March 2024.
