By Awa Cheikh Faye
For more than a month now, the regional bloc has been engaged in a tug of war with the military junta in Niger, albeit to little effect.
ECOWAS is demanding the release of ex-President Bazoum and his family, his reinstatement and the return of the military to the barracks. Not only have these demands gone unheeded, the junta's grip on Niamey seems to be growing stronger by the day.
Nearly two months after the fifth putsch in Niger's history, the initial threat of military action brandished by the West African bloc has given way to speeches focusing on the need to find a diplomatic solution through dialogue.
As the complications of the crisis in Niger continue to unfold, ECOWAS seems to have reached its tolerance threshold. It has already stated its intention to henceforth use the standby force in the event of any unconstitutional change of regime in one of its member states.
Standby force
The ECOWAS standby force is a regional military initiative whose aim is to respond quickly and effectively to crises and conflicts in West Africa.
Created in response to the conflicts in Sierra Leone and Liberia more than two decades ago, it is made up of troops from ECOWAS member countries, and is ready to be deployed should the need arise.
Supposed to be the emblem of the region's determination to take charge of its security problems and maintain stability, the prospect of its deployment in Niger is nonetheless divisive.
Niger’s neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso have backed the junta and strongly opposed ECOWAS intervention. Over the weekend, the three countries launched a bloc called the Alliance of Sahel States aimed at ensuring their security and economic well-being.
Adjaratou Wakha Aïdara Ndiaye, executive director of Partners West Africa in Senegal, notes that ECOWAS's response, especially the mention of a possible deployment of the standby force, "reflects fear of a snowball effect" due to the perceived success of the putsches in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.
According to Ndiaye, this fear is amplified by the anti-Western sentiment observed in the region, "which is the result of the frustrations experienced by young people not just in these countries, but throughout French-speaking West Africa.’’
She points out factors such unemployment, corruption and economic exploitation as well as conflicts and poor governance.
"All these problems faced by young people who have graduated and are unable to settle in socially and economically make them favour the putschists," she says.
Crisis of legitimacy
Stanislas Zézé, an Ivorian business leader, believes that ECOWAS has been overtaken by events, leaving it blind to changes in the economic and political environment that signal what he calls "a real economic and political revolution". The feeling that the regional bloc isn't acting in the interest of its member countries is also growing.
"These four countries where coups have taken place (Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger) are clearly beginning to question whether it is necessary to remain in this economic union. If they withdraw, in my opinion, this will certainly snowball," Zézé tells TRT Afrika.
The economist and commentator feels that ECOWAS was hasty in acting on Niger, "flexing its paper muscles" to the extent that negotiating with the military regime in Niamey has become difficult.
Ndiaye sees in the recent events across West Africa as being reflective of "an ECOWAS crisis".
She says the regional organisation, whose mandate has evolved from economic to political, is increasingly disparaged on the continent, often likened to a "union of heads of state" losing touch with the realities of the peoples who make up the community.
Some speak of a loss of legitimacy, while others argue that the very survival of the organisation is at stake here.
"It reminds me of the League of Nations, which had to be reformed to become what we now call the UN," Ndiaye notes. "I think that today ECOWAS is, in fact gambling, with its credibility."
Some sections of the population in Niger have backed the military coup but almost everyone within and outside the country is questioning the strategy for exit from the crisis.
No silver bullet
Zézé insists there are no easy answers to why coups happen, and how to stem their resurgence.
"Almost everyone condemns coups d'état, but no one is trying to understand why they happen, and no one is looking at the reasons behind them in terms of discussion and debate," he says.
Many countries in the Sahel have experienced, or are experiencing, periods of political instability, military coups and conflicts since their independence several decades ago. These troubles have weakened state institutions, created a power vacuum and hampered economic development.
The Sahel has high levels of poverty, unemployment and lack of access to education and healthcare. Economic underdevelopment contributes to instability. "ECOWAS has never organised a summit or forum to talk about why there are coups.
What causes coups? How can they be prevented? Instead of being stuck in a curative logic, we need to be in a preventive logic," says Zézé. ECOWAS has always maintained that it is committed to deepening democracy in the region.
However, the Ivorian expert hopes the raging debate on the recurrence of coups d'état in the region will make those in charge of ECOWAS understand that the political models they choose need to be "adjusted", lest these add to the frustration.
