The one-week ultimatum given to Niger's coup leaders by the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, to restore constitutional order expires on Sunday.
ECOWAS had threatened to use force against the coup leaders and to reinstate ousted elected President Mohamed Bazoum if the coupists failed to relinquish power by the end of the ultimatum. The junta appears unwilling to budge.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is also the Chairman of ECOWAS, had requested the country's Senate to approve his plans to deploy troops to Niger as part of the bloc's military intervention. Tinubu had vowed to be ''resolute and forceful.''
But his bid is facing resistance at home. On Saturday, the Senate rejected Tinubu's military deployment request, local media reported. Instead, it advised him to further explore options other than the use of force to restore democracy in Niger.
The Nigerian Senate condemned the coup but said the use of force would not be the right decision. It noted the “existing cordial relationship between Nigeriens and Nigerians.”
Senators from northern Nigerian states, where Niger shares its long border with the country, were the first to openly reject the military intervention plan by the government.
Intense debate
They urged caution given the already precarious security situation in the region and the longstanding good relationship between the two countries expressing concern that any military action would affect the two countries and their citizens ''negatively''.
“The emphasis, however, is that we should be focused on political and diplomatic means to restore democratic government in the Niger Republic,'' the northern Nigerian senators said in a statement.
“We also take exception to the use of military force until other avenues as mentioned above are exhausted as the consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business,'' they added.
The issue of troops deployment has generated intense debate in West Africa and beyond with many sounding caution on the potential implication given the strong divergent stances among countries in the region.
There is also widespread insecurity with various armed groups unleashing violence in several countries including Niger itself.
Some experts say the insurgent groups linked to al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State could take advantage of any military conflict between countries in the region.
Regional split
Some fear that in the event of military confrontation, the countries' cooperation against militant groups could be weakened and proliferation of weapons would be more likely while external forces might get involved to push for their interests in Africa.
A military intervention “could also deteriorate into a conflict by proxy between forces outside Africa, between those supporting the restoration of democracy and those supporting the junta, which has taken a strong anti-Western stance,” Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group told AFP news agency.
According to analysts, if Nigerian government is unable to deploy troops, the entire deployment plans by ECOWAS could face a serious setback. Nigeria is by far the most influential country in West Africa economically, politically and militarily.
Three of Niger's neighbours, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad have already made it clear that they would not support any military intervention. Chad is not a member of ECOWAS but it has good relationship with the bloc over the years.
Mali and Burkina, which are members of the regional bloc and also under military rule following coups, have gone further to warn that any military force against Niger would be considered a ''declaration of war'' against them too. This is the clearest sign of division.
Collapsed talks
The regional body, ECOWAS, had sent at least two separate delegations to meet with the coup leaders and the deposed president in Niamey.
Chadian leader Mahamat Deby Itno first travelled to Niger on ECOWAS' mandate and held what he called 'in-depth' discussions with both the junta leaders and the deposed president on Monday. But details of those talks were not made public.
Another delegation led by former Nigerian head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar travelled on Thursday but failed to see either ousted president Bazoum or the junta leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
This was seen as the first sign of the collapse of the ECOWAS mediation efforts. The coup leaders are apparently furious following the bloc's threat to use force. The coup in Niger appears so complicated compared with previous coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.
This is the first time ECOWAS is threatening to use military force in addition to sanctions against coup leaders since 2020 when the current wave of coups started. The deposed Niger's President Bazoum is still being held by the coup leaders.
With the situation still fluid, all eyes are on ECOWAS to see how it will move on with its plans to restore democracy in Niger and whether in the long run it could avert similar situations in other countries.
