For pass three decades, West Africa dream for one currency don remain just dream — nothing don change. Deadlines don pass, politicians don talk and promise, but Eco still never enter the pockets of more than 400 million people.
Regional leaders dey talk say the proposed Eco suppose deepen regional integration, boost trade inside Africa and support sustainable, inclusive economic growth, but negotiation for the joint currency don drag for more than 30 years.
The newest promise come for the July ECOWAS summit for Sierra Leone, wey adopt plan to introduce Eco by the end of 2027. The bloc wan do am in phases, make only the countries wey meet important economic convergence criteria — like inflation, debt sustainability and monetary stability — fit join for the beginning.
But this deadline go different this time?
After many years of talks, the most real chance for Eco to start na for the 2019 ECOWAS summit, when dem set aggressive target to launch the currency for 2020. But that time never happen.
Instead, the project jam plenty problems, including big economic difference among member states, fiscal instability, political wahala, military coups and the disturbance wey Covid-19 bring.
Analysts talk say, however, the problems wey dey Eco no start with the pandemic and coups — dem don dey earlier.
For Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of Nigeria Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), weak economic governance na the koko of the matter.
"The quality of economic governance poor. Policies dey arbitrary and inconsistent and because of that, the capacity to achieve macroeconomic convergence wey this currency need across most countries don hard," Yusuf tell TRT Afrika.
Recurring obstacles
One main worry na whether members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), wey dey use the CFA franc now, go join the first phase. Guinea don already talk say e no go participate for the ECOWAS single-currency project.
Analysts say member countries never meet the key convergence criteria — for example inflation rates wey different for the region, public debt levels wey no the same and governments no fit keep budget deficits inside the agreed limits.
"The key convergence criteria mean member nations must get low inflation, sustainable deficits, sustainable debt levels, and consistency for fiscal and monetary policy. Governments need discipline for macroeconomic management," Yusuf explain.
"We never see that for most countries for the subregion. Macroeconomic convergence and currency matter need stability and policy consistency, and that one still no dey."
Analysts also point to the different exchange-rate regimes for the region. Some countries dey under the CFA franc system, while other countries get their own national currencies like Nigerian naira, Ghanaian cedi, Gambian dalasi, Liberian dollar, Guinean franc, Sierra Leonean leone and Cape Verdean escudo.
To join all these different monetary systems into one framework na heavy work. Questions about how the future regional central bank go be run, who go get voting rights and how decisions go take, still never clear.
New pressures
Maybe the biggest challenge now na the changing political picture inside ECOWAS itself.
The exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from some ECOWAS activities after rows over sanctions wey follow military coups don raise question about regional unity just when deeper integration dey needed.
"So how you go dey communicate?" Yusuf ask. "How you go reason when political ideologies and political leadership for the subregion don scatter? There dey problem of unity. If all those fragmentation dey, how you go get commitment from everybody?"
The departures don cause uncertainty about how regional cooperation go look for the future and whether monetary union fit work without the involvement of countries wey once dey central to the plan.
Can 2027 be different?
Despite all the wahala, some analysts like Fidel Amakye Owusu, Ghanaian geopolitical and security expert, believe say reasons dey why the new deadline fit get more momentum than the older attempts.
"When we dey reason how to adopt currency, we suppose see am as step-by-step process rather than one-time event," Owusu tell TRT Afrika.
"African leaders dey become more radical for how dem wan make change and dem dey more independent for their thinking. As dem dey pursue resource nationalism, those resources fit back the currencies to make dem stronger for both local and international trade," Owusu talk.
Growing worry about reliance on foreign currencies and renewed push for regional trade integration don increase political support for Eco. Supporters argue say one common currency fit reduce transaction costs, make cross-border trade easier and boost West Africa bargaining power for economy matters.
For many ways, the political argument for Eco today fit strong pass how e bin dey for the past ten years.
But the economic reality still stubborn.
Plenty member states still dey fight high inflation, rising debt and fiscal deficits. The convergence targets wey always spoil earlier launch plans still hard to meet, and political divisions inside the region don deep.
Because of that, analysts tell make people cautious about the 2027 target.
"I no too optimistic because plenty structural issues dey, plenty political issues dey, and many economic management and governance problems dey for most countries for the sub-region," Yusuf talk.
The main question no be whether ECOWAS fit physically release new currency inside the next two years. The real question be whether member states fit finally get the economic discipline, policy coordination and political unity wey every previous deadline never get.
"How much trade dey happen inside the sub-region?" Yusuf ask. "Unlike wetin dey the EU, the percentage of total trade wey na intra-regional trade na only about 15% or 20%. If trade no plenty inside the sub-region, wetin be the point of one common currency?"
The history of the Eco show say to fix launch date no be the hardest part. To build the conditions wey go make a monetary union work remain the most difficult thing.
