AI servers. Electric vehicles. Defence systems. Energy storage. Di world dey rush to build di future, and this time, di biggest obstacle no be money nor technology. Na time. For big companies, if production stop dem fit lose market share to competitor wey no stop.
Dat urgency don turn mining to geopolitical battlefield. Di US, Europe and Japan dey rush to break China strong hold on Africa critical minerals, and none of dem fit afford to blink first.
By 2050, demand for lithium fit rise tenfold.
Demand for cobalt? E go triple.
Only four minerals — copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium — fit generate about $16 trillion revenue over di next 25 years.
Africa get trillions dollars worth minerals but for decades e never get im fair share: raw ores dem dey dig, ship go outside, dem dey refine elsewhere and turn am to branded products, wey na there di real money dey. Africa just dey watch as di value dey grow for other people hand.
But sometin dey shift. While global powers need Africa minerals urgently, more African countries don begin draw line.
Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Gabon don move to restrict export of raw or minimally processed minerals. Di continent no want remain di world cheap raw-material depot. African countries get leverage again, but dis time di question be whether dem fit convert am into lasting capacity.
Export ban na strong start, but e get risk say trade go waka underground: ore fit dey move illegally cross borders and dem go sell am for even lower price. Di continent go lose twice — first di value of di mineral, then di revenue from im sale. Na why Africa no suppose only stop exports; e need capture more of di value chain.
Imagine farmer wey don dey sell raw wheat only. One day e announce say e no go sell raw wheat again. But e no get mill, pasta factory, bakery or infrastructure to process or store im harvest. So wetin don change? E still no fit sell flour, pasta or bread. E just dey hold raw wheat wey e no fit process.
China’s grip
China strong hold na exactly di dependence Africa dey try break. According to di International Energy Agency, China control about 60% of global rare earth extraction. But for separation and refining, dat figure climb to about 91%. E control over 80% of graphite. Nearly all di world's gallium also dey pass through Chinese refineries.
https://www.iea.org/reports/rare-earth-elements/executive-summary
For decades Beijing don build integrated system wey include extraction, logistics, refining and manufacturing, so plenty of di value don gather for China.
Dis matter because di biggest economic gains usually dey come further down di chain, during processing and manufacturing, not just from extracting di ore.
So di dilemma for Africa be: if China build di refineries, dependence go continue. If Western companies build dem, another form of dependence fit show. Di immediate priority no be who build di facilities, but who control di terms. Di long-term goal suppose be African-built and African-owned capacity.
But to build refinery no be only money matter. E need massive, uninterrupted energy infrastructure. Plenty African countries still dey struggle to meet basic electricity needs.
Beyond infrastructure, di continent face another uncomfortable truth: modern mining dey create very few direct jobs. For mining-dependent countries, di sector typically dey account for just 1% to 4% of formal employment. As robotics, autonomous machinery and AI-driven automation spread, even dat limited employment footprint fit shrink more.
If jobs dey disappear anyway, di question wey Africa suppose ask investors must change. E no suppose be “How many unskilled workers you go hire?” but “How many African engineers and software developers you go train?”
Africa’s leverage
Africa sabi wetin de under ground, but dat no be im main leverage. Di real advantage dey for urgency, because buyers no fit afford to wait. Washington wan free itself from China mineral grip sharp sharp. Europe and Japan too. None of dem fit wait — not di EV makers, not di data centres, not di defence contractors wey dey rush secure supply before rival.
However urgency alone no go bring economic prosperity. E must turn into something wey last before e fade. Technology transfer no dey free, so African countries go need demand am clearly: laboratories, refineries, research centres and training for their own metallurgists, geologists and software developers — make dem include am for every deal. Alongside dis, Africa need im own R&D ecosystem wey go connect universities with industry.
A Cautionary Tale
Many African countries fit learn from Indonesia. After dem ban raw nickel exports, di Southeast Asian nation attract wave of investment into domestic processing. Nickel export values surge several times.
But e get catch: most of those refineries dem build na Chinese companies, and dem come with severe environmental costs, including widespread deforestation and pollution. Na cautionary tale wey Africa suppose study well.
Still, di clock dey tick. Africa no fit waste im own time while e dey sell am to others. As new reserves dey discover, recycling dey improve and alternatives like sodium-ion batteries dey become more viable, demand for lithium and cobalt fit fall faster than dem expect. Di window fit dey narrower than e dey look.
Africa real wealth today no be di cobalt, lithium or graphite buried for soil. Na di bargaining power wey come from a world wey dey desperate for those minerals.
If dem use am well, dis moment fit finally turn underground resources into lasting development. If dem waste am, di only thing wey go change for di next decade na di flags for di mining trucks, not di poverty for di villages.
Disclaimer:
Di views wey di author express no necessarily reflect di opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
