Leaders from West African bloc ECOWAS have convened an emergency summit on Thursday on the coup in Niger, after the country's military chiefs defied its ultimatum to restore the elected president.
The 15-member-state bloc finds its credibility in the cross hairs as it attempts to stem a cascade of coups among its members since 2020.
Already its one-week ultimatum to the generals in Niger to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum has been ignored, and a threat to use force has caused division among its members.
Uncertainty about the next line of action to reverse the situation in Niger overshadows the bloc's summit in Nigeria's capital, Abuja.
The junta has formed a cabinet and appointed regional governor to consolidate their rule as the ECOWAS meeting got underway.
"Today, we run the risk of making it (ECOWAS) disappear, " was the fear expressed by Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo ahead of the summit. But he added that he did not think it would come to that.
Sanctions
Since the current wave of coups started in West Africa in 2020, ECOWAS, has used economic and travel sanctions against coup leaders to try to force them to relinquish power and return their countries to democracy.
Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso three West African countries that experienced coups have yet to return to democracy despite sanctions by ECOWAS although the juntas have set timetables for elections.
The bloc has also imposed sanctions against Niger's coup leaders who appear unwilling to budge.
Many analysts say, so far, sanctions have done little to convince the military leaders to give up power in West African countries.
Military force
The most contentious issue in Nager's coup crisis is apparently the threat by ECOWAS to deploy troops to reverse the coup.
Niger's neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso who are also under junta rule, have strongly warned against the use force saying they would consider such military intervention as a ''declaration of war'' against them.
Experts say the division among ECOWAS member states over military action could weaken bloc's plan for military intervention, and in the event it goes ahead with it, it might spark military confrontation between the opposing sides.
The junta is also still holding the deposed president and his family. Some analysts say this is another issue worth taking into consideration when it comes to use military force.
ECOWAS does not have its own fully fledged regional military force. If it plans a military intervention or operations, it relies mainly on contributions from member states.
There is also strong public opinion against the use of force against Niger especially in Niger itself and in neighbouring Nigeria, whose Presiden Bola Tinubu, is the chairman of ECOWAS.
The Nigerian Senate had advised the president to explore diplomatic avenues when he requested its approval to implement ECOWAS resolutions which included the ''use of force.''
ECOWAS has never mobilised a regional force to reverse a military takeover. But it has successfully used military threats in 2017 to push then-Gambian President Yahya Jammeh out of power after he indicated unwillingness to relinquish power despite losing an election.
Diplomacy
ECOWAS appears to be softening its stance on the military option. In one of his most recent comments, the ECOWAS chairman Bola Tinubu said he believed ''diplomacy is the best way forward.''
This is a sharp contrast to his initial statement during the bloc's first summit on the coup when he suggested that the West African countries needed to be ''resolute'' and ''forceful.''
But the arms of military junta do not seem wide open for mediators. It rejected requests for a visit by UN, AU and ECOWAS delegation as well as US officials. The coup leaders seem infuriated by the military threat by ECOWAS.
However, they have welcomed a visit by an influential Nigerian royal, Muhammadu Sanusi II who met with the junta leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani on Wednesday.
It was a rare welcome for a general that ignored top diplomats. Although, it was reportedly a ''private visit,'' is raised hope of an inroad to talks.
Soon after returning from Niger, Sanusi II met with the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu who immediately authorised the country's Islamic religious leaders to reach out to the coup leaders in Niger.
The two countries have strong historical, cultural and economic ties dating back to pre-colonial era.
ECOWAS keen on reversing the coup. But as a security analyst based in Nigeria, Abdullahi Yalwa puts it: ’'Reversing the coup is something very difficult but also possible.’’ He believes ''even if force is used, dialogue will be used at the end.’’
