By Tuncay Şahin
Amid shifting global alliances and a growing transatlantic rift, the EU faces the risk of isolation without stronger ties to Türkiye, Turkish experts say, emphasising that collaboration in energy, trade, and digitisation could strengthen Europe’s geopolitical standing and global influence.
“If the EU has a serious strategic plan, it is better for Europe to join hands with Türkiye,” said Associate Professor Suay Nilhan Acikalin, a Turkish foreign policy and political leadership expert.
Experts argue that Türkiye’s pivotal role in the region, alongside its position as NATO’s second-largest military power, makes it indispensable to Europe.
“Türkiye significantly contributes to Euro-Atlantic security. Ignoring these contributions would be a profound oversight,” international relations expert Professor Aylin Noi told TRT World, urging the EU to adopt a forward-looking strategy.
Türkiye’s strategic importance to Europe is undeniable, yet its relationship with the bloc remains hindered by the EU’s “strategic blindness,” with issues like Cyprus overshadowing broader collaboration.
“The EU seems overly fixated on Cyprus, holding its broader relationship with Türkiye hostage to this issue,” Noi said.
This limited perspective has left Türkiye’s significant potential in areas like security, trade, and diplomacy untapped, even as the country plays a crucial role in influencing developments across the Middle East, Africa, and beyond.
Türkiye is at the centre of diplomatic developments reshaping Syria after the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime.
Türkiye has also been instrumental in addressing migration and counterterrorism challenges, acting as a stabilising force for Europe.
“Türkiye plays a significant role in preventing Daesh terrorism at its source, combating the menace, and stopping it from spreading to Europe,” said Noi.
However, to realise this potential, the EU must acknowledge Türkiye’s role and engage more constructively. Without Türkiye, Europe risks losing a key ally in navigating the turbulent global landscape, experts said.
Reactive vs proactive approach
The EU has adopted a crisis-driven approach to its relationship with Türkiye, according to Acikalin. This approach has been reactive rather than proactive, with the EU turning to Türkiye primarily during times of crisis.
"In the last 10 years, unfortunately, the EU has developed a crisis-based perspective towards Türkiye, especially when it comes to issues like the migration crisis and energy security," Acikalin explained.
While it has led to some positive collaboration—particularly during the migration crisis—the limited, crisis-driven perspective leaves much to be desired.
"At the end of the day, the EU decided to work with Türkiye during the migration crisis and energy crisis, but this is a limited perspective," Acikalin said, urging the EU to adopt a more forward-thinking strategy.
Türkiye is a critical energy hub, hosting pipelines from Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, and Russia that supply gas to Europe via routes to Greece, Bulgaria, and Italy.
Key pipelines include TurkStream 2, delivering over 15 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually under the Black Sea, and the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which delivers nearly 10 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas annually to Southern Europe. Both operate close to full capacity.
Collaboration and convergence
Despite the challenges, both experts agree that there are significant opportunities for deeper collaboration between Türkiye and the EU.
Acikalin highlighted energy, transportation, trade, and digitisation as key areas where Türkiye and the EU could build a more robust and mutually beneficial partnership.
"Energy is the leading sector here," said Acikalin, pointing out the importance of Türkiye’s geopolitical positions on energy routes.
"The second one is transportation and trade, which also relates to energy security. Thirdly, there is a good potential for collaboration in terms of digitisation."
These areas, if pursued effectively, could help both Türkiye and the EU achieve significant economic and strategic benefits, she said.
The discontinuation of gas supplies from Russia has made Türkiye’s role even more critical. With European countries looking for alternative energy routes, Türkiye’s position as a reliable energy transit hub is now more important than ever.
"Today, energy pipelines traversing Türkiye deliver energy to Europe, making it an essential partner in ensuring Europe’s energy security," Noi said.
“Türkiye is explicitly mentioned in the EU’s security strategy documents,” said Noi, highlighting Ankara’s indispensable role in diversifying Europe’s energy routes.
Strategic geopolitical alliance
Strains in the US-EU alliance are deepening as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, whose controversial policies, including a proposal to annex Greenland, have unsettled relations with NATO and EU members like Denmark.
Elon Musk, a rising influence within Trump’s circle and an expected key policymaker, further complicates matters by interfering in European politics.
“Recently, Elon Musk conducted a programme with the AFD leader in Germany, explicitly declaring his support, stating that ’Germany needs a leader like you,’” said Noi.
Such actions risk widening the divide between the US and the EU.
As the transatlantic rift grows, the EU’s reliance on traditional alliances is being questioned.
“It seems unlikely that a second Trump term would deviate from this trajectory,” said Noi, suggesting a need for the EU to recalibrate its partnerships.
With its strategic location and NATO’s second-largest military, Türkiye has much more to offer, said the expert.
“In this context, Türkiye becomes an indispensable partner for European security,” Noi argued, urging the EU to reassess its approach toward Ankara amidst shifting global alliances.
Both experts emphasised that as the EU faces mounting internal challenges and external pressures, Türkiye's proactive foreign policy and growing global influence in the Middle East and Africa offer Europe an opportunity to reclaim its position on the world stage.
"For the EU to pursue its broader ambitions effectively, it must find a way to collaborate with Türkiye and advance their partnership," said Noi.
Acikalin concurred, warning that the EU’s failure to embrace Türkiye could result in Europe becoming increasingly isolated.
"The EU is isolating itself," she said. "It has become an actor that cannot contribute to both regional and global peace due to the crises it has experienced in recent times."
"Türkiye is actively working to resolve problems, eliminate environments of war and conflict, and taking significant initiatives toward these goals," Noi said. "This proactive approach provides Türkiye with numerous advantages—economic, political, and security-related."
“An EU without Türkiye lacks the geopolitical strength to emerge as a true global power.”
